2007 Prediction

[No 14]

Ok I am an optimist - but the stats are on our side

8 games to go -
5 against the bottom 5 teams = 5 wins
1 each against Hawthorn and Collingwood. Form of many past seasons says those that shine mid season have a fade out - both winnable.
1 against West Coast Evils - fate, justice and the fact its own turn - our win.

R21 and R22 will be mini finals.

11 games to go before the grand final.

Swans vs ???

[j s]

I like the way you think

[vanberlo=god]

I like the way you think

before the freo game, i always said its very possible to win the next 8 so long as we beat freo, and we can finish top4.

[No 14]

hmmm - Top 4.... we need 15 wins or 14 with the best percentage. It will need the hot run.

[dendol]

We've got a decent percentage so its possible we'll steal 4th spot if we get to 14 wins. You'd hope that we'd have one or two percentage-boosting wins against that bottom 5.

There is little room for error in this run to the finals though and beating Freo at home is no sure sign we've turned the corner just yet.

[PerthSwannie]

Three weeks ago I was not too sure of our chances in the finals. This morning was our last roll of the dice. I liked what I saw today and if we can keep that tempo up I can see us being a real contender. IF we put up a real show against WC in 2 weeks(as in a smashing), we can go all the way.

If we do WC I predict a Swannie V Geelong GF!!!

[SimonH]

The fact that the second side is now 9-5 makes it increasingly likely (although still far from certain) that 14-8 and the strongest percentage of teams on 56 points, will be adequate to make the 4.

It didn't look like a terribly easy draw at the start of the year, but (as in previous years) a high proportion of the teams slated to play Sydney twice, are playing some terrible footy. If we can knock over Carlton next week with a strong performance, and travel west with high confidence, the Weagles R16 game is well and truly winnable; which no-one would have thought after about round 8.

If other matches fall our way (or mostly our way), it's totally appropriate that Sydney's August final will be against Collingwood. What better way to redeem ourselves after Sydney's worst performance for some years against the same opponent?

None of the teams on 9-5 have the formline/class to make me believe they will go 7-1 from here; meaning that 15 wins will probably be enough to finish 2nd! That's sure an even comp. Brisbane's upset win on the weekend means that 13 teams remain with realistic finals aspirations-- a pretty high number after 14 rounds.

[hammo]

Without doing a detailed analysis, there is every chance that by the end of next weekend we will be 6th and just one win behind 3rd.

At least four teams in front of us will probably lose...

Kangaroos face a desperate Freo in Perth.

Collingwood play Geelong

Port play West Coast

Essendon play Bulldogs

Even the Crows playing away to St Kilda is no easy challenge.

So while we can't afford any slip ups, the top 4 is still within reach.

[Damien]

I still think Top 4. We have no real room for error, but if we keep winning, only dropping 1 or 2, I think a few teams will do us some favours along the way and open up the Top 4 for us.

[Zlatorog]

For me "let's wait and see" is better suited. One week at the time, folks.

[Young Blood]

I had a look at the run home last night. Hawthorn and Collingwood have pretty soft draws and on current form really should finish on at least 60 points.

WCE have a tougher draw with a number of away games (Port, Roos, St K, Dogs) and the derby v Freo. But if they return to anything like their peak form, they would start favourite to win each of them.

So even if we could go 7-1 from here, we would be relying on at least one of these teams to stumble to finish any better than 5th or 6th. Adelaide are in roughly the same position (a game ahead of us now but with a tougher draw from here).

Hopefully the young Hawks and Pies will tire toward the end of the season.

[Vivien]

Of the sides currently in the top four, you would think only Geelong's place is assured. One thing in our favour is that we play all of the current top 4 sides (bar Geelong) in our run home. These would all be must-win games you would think.

[j s]

There are a number of games in the remaining rounds where the teams above us play each other resulting in a loss for one of them (or a draw). With the right combination of those losses (plus winning ourselves of course) then a top four finish is still possible.

Just think positive thoughts!

[reigning premier]

All well and good for everyone to be thinking if they lose and they win, etc, etc we can make the top 4. Trouble is, we haven't taken those oppurtunities when they hve been presented to us. Nor have we played like we wanted to.

Have a look at the collingwood game. The chance to go to 4 on the ladder. Collingwood obliged by playing @@@@ (Missed lots of shots), and we were simply terrible.

These chances need to be taken when they are presented.

[SimonH]

I had a look at the run home last night. Hawthorn and Collingwood have pretty soft draws and on current form really should finish on at least 60 points.

WCE have a tougher draw with a number of away games (Port, Roos, St K, Dogs) and the derby v Freo. But if they return to anything like their peak form, they would start favourite to win each of them.

So even if we could go 7-1 from here, we would be relying on at least one of these teams to stumble to finish any better than 5th or 6th. Adelaide are in roughly the same position (a game ahead of us now but with a tougher draw from here).

Hopefully the young Hawks and Pies will tire toward the end of the season.

After last weekend, I wouldn't pick Hawthorn to go 6-2 for the balance of the season (to reach 60 points) in a pink fit. They might flog Richmond this weekend, but when better sides turn up the heat they'll struggle to win more than 50% of their games.

West Coast are a team that really should be able to rack up 15 wins and therefore be a guaranteed top 4 (perhaps even top 2) side. But sides' form tends to turn like a tanker rather than a skateboard, and they've got a lot of loseable games (only Richmond at home is nearly 'unloseable'; their 2nd-easiest game looks like Essendon at home, where they'll certainly need to do more than turn up).

The Pies are yet to crack yet, and have a ridiculously friendly run home in terms of setting up shop at the MCG week-in, week-out... but history suggests they will wobble at some stage. Playing Geelong this weekend would be a good place for them to start.

The Roos have a reasonable, if not easy, run home, having confounded everyone by making it to 9-5. But realistically, their chances of getting to 15-7 hinge on them beating Freo in Perth this weekend.

Adelaide look by far the best of the teams on 8-6, but they have a nightmare run home. Horrendously tough. If they could manufacture 7-1 out of those 8 games, they'd be deserved equal premiership favourites with Geelong, in my book.

Which adds up to what? I think the chances are improving that Sydney can make the top 4 with 14 wins (especially now Hawthorn's percentage is nearly shot), i.e. if we go 7-1 from here. Which still remains a massive, and very speculative, 'if'.

Oh, alright, alright: 'One week at a time'.