If we don't win all of our next 4......

[Robbo]

.....then we'll have to knock off Collingwood or Hawthorn in order to make the finals.

Our next four games are all very winnable. Richmond and Melbourne should both be wins. StKilda at home and Brisbane away are a bit more difficult but both still very winnable. But we really can't afford to drop any of these four, because the two games after these four are very difficult.

If we win these next four games, then we will play finals. If we don't win the next four, we're in danger of missing the 8.

[hammo]

Missing the finals is a very real prospect now. Both St Kilda and Brisbane will be playing for their seasons in those upcoming matches. Apart from maybe the Bulldogs game, the Swans have quite frankly never hit top gear all year and are just making up the numbers this season.

[SimonH]

Any side that doesn't make the top 4 is just 'making up the numbers' in terms of making the GF.

Of course, I'd love to see Sydney finish 5 or 6 if we don't make the top 4, just for the fun of seeing a home final, but I wouldn't be kidding myself it would lead to anything (apart from providing the very few new players who didn't play 2005/6, e.g. Schmidt, with valuable finals experience).

Chances of making the top 4 are discussed here among many other places.

On reflection, I think that our chances are now just below 50%. Presuming that the Dogs and Hawthorn are gettable (and I think they are), we need to get ahead of 2 out of: Roos, Weagles, Collingwood, Port.

The Roos (who I were hoping, but not quite believing, would lose to Melbourne today) are a bit of a worry for us. While of course no-one knows who might finish 2nd or 3rd, they are the sort of team we'd want to finish ahead of, to nab 4th. Their run home is far from easy, but on their current form they'd be a fair chance of winning each of their next 3 (Hawthorn in Tas, Blions at the Gabba and the Weagles in Melbourne). Presuming they'll lose to Geelong, and beat Carlton (derr) and the Dogs in their other games, we need them to lose 2 of their next 3 to have a chance of catching 'em. A bit of an ask.

Weagles' draw could be as easy or tough as they choose to make it. Depends which side turns up each week, esp whether Cousins can maintain his form and whether Judd succumbs to injury. Could win 5 out of 6 to go out of our reach without any shocks, but equally could win 2.

Port, for a team in 'rebuilding' mode, I'd previously ignored but they look dangerous. They have a run home with some tough games but 2 'gimmes'. We need 'em to drop 2 out of the following: Melbourne (H), Adelaide, Carlton (H), Hawthorn (Tas), Geelong (A), Fremantle (H). Line ball.

Everyone knows that Collingwood have a joke of a draw from Rs 17-20 (presuming they don't let Jono Brown kick 12 next week, and they won't). So our chances of catching them probably rely on (obviously) us kickin' 'em in R21, and then Adelaide accelerating their Colliwobbles, in Melbourne, in R22. Might happen; Adelaide are unpredictable so I wouldn't bet on it, though.

All told: do-able, but looking a little tougher after this weekend.

The good news is that we appear to have all other teams who might wind up on 14 wins, covered for percentage.

Did I mention that all of this speculation relies on us winning 6 in a row?

[Hazcam]

Did I mention that all of this speculation relies on us winning 6 in a row?

something that wont happen

[timthefish]

Any side that doesn't make the top 4 is just 'making up the numbers' in terms of making the GF.

generally, but not absolutely. if we finish the home and away season with strong form (not likely, but not inconceivable) we get a home final which we would expect to win. after that is the very difficult task of winning two away finals but with the makeup of the top 4 this year, there is a good chance they would each be in melbourne. plenty of crowd support and fossy can get happy running around the mcg.

south melbourne is revived once again and bloods rhetoric reaches fever pitch.

[barry]

generally, but not absolutely. if we finish the home and away season with strong form (not likely, but not inconceivable) we get a home final which we would expect to win. after that is the very difficult task of winning two away finals but with the makeup of the top 4 this year, there is a good chance they would each be in melbourne. plenty of crowd support and fossy can get happy running around the mcg.

south melbourne is revived once again and bloods rhetoric reaches fever pitch.

Can we seriously win a flag with Hall at 70% ?
His injury wont get better without an operation.

[ScottH]

Can we seriously win a flag with Hall at 70% ?

We did in '05.

[goswannie14]

Any side that doesn't make the top 4 is just 'making up the numbers' in terms of making the GF.

Didn't Adelaide win it from 5th? Someone forgot to tell them they were only making up the numbers.

[liz]

Can we seriously win a flag with Hall at 70% ?

Possibly, but not also with Goodes at 70% (effectiveness, if not fitness), Jude at about 20% effectiveness and Kennelly at 0% effectiveness.

[NMWBloods]

Didn't Adelaide win it from 5th? Someone forgot to tell them they were only making up the numbers.

Adelaide won in '98 from outside the top 4 - the only team to ever do it.

Only one other team has even made it to the GF from outside the top 4 - Carlton in '99.

So the odds are strongly against it.

[mcs]

the odds are definetly against someone from outside the 4 winning it but in my opinion this year is the year it could happen and there are only 2 teams that could do- one being the West Coast Eagles and the other being us. For in the finals this year, you will have the Roos and the Hawks with most players having little or no experience in the finals and also Port with a lot of youngsters developing thaty havent played finals footy. And then there is Geelong who will be under massive pressure and then the rest- WCE who we know we can match, Collingwood who would be tough but not undefeatable and WBD/ESS/STK who will probably be making up the numbers.

Back to topic though I really think we can win our next 4. The next 2 should be no problem at all if we actually have aspirations for Septmber. St Kilda will be tough and they have got us the last couple of times and it could go either way. Brisbane are in a good vein of form but whether it keeps on is another question. We have a very good record home and away against them over the last few weeks also.

And then there are the last two Collingwood and Hawthorn. I think we should be able to beat Hawthorn at home but Collingwood away will be a real acid test.

My prediction is we will win at least 4 of the 6 but probably 5 of the 6 with a loss to either St Kilda or Collingwood.

[SimonH]

Didn't Adelaide win it from 5th? Someone forgot to tell them they were only making up the numbers.

Sorry, under the old final 8 system (which ran circa 1994-9) and therefore irrelevant. Under that system, 1 and 2 were in the box seat, 7 and 8 basically rooted, and the middle 4 all in the same boat. Unless 7 shocked 2 in the first week of the finals (which happened a couple of times), it made very little difference whether you finished 3rd or 6th.

Under the current system (since 2000), teams 1-4 are all in a similar boat, and teams 5-8 are stuffed. In theory they can make it from the bottom half. In theory, a team like Australia could win the soccer World Cup, too. However, there comes a point where you're piling improbability on top of unlikelihood, so you can basically dismiss the chance of something happening. As I've said before, under the current system teams 5-8 who've won in the first week have taken on the first week losers from teams 1-4 in an away semi-final, 14 times. They've gone 1 win, 13 losses. (The one win was Hawthorn by a couple of points over then-serial-chokers Port Adelaide. Hawthorn went on to lose their prelim.)

An optimist would back Sydney to break that drought and win their semi-final if they win in the first week from 5-8. But only an insane optimist would back them to back up again and win another away game against a winning top 4 team. Let alone then win the grannie.

[mcs]

I think SimonH what you is saying is basically right, but if you were lucky and got a good draw then you would never know. If you could finish 5 or 6 and avoid a road trip in Week 1, then have results fall in your favour you could see us play week 1 in Sydney and then the last 3 weeks in Melbourne. Equally we could end up playing away to someone like port in week 2 then in melbourne in week 2 then west coast in week 3.

The first situation we would have a chance. But also I think so much of finals footy is confidence and momentum. Look at 05- sure we came from the top 4 but we were playing a St Kilda team that looked well on the road to winning the premiership and we had a very tough win against Geelong at home after the dreaded trip to Subiaco and we came out and won again.

I think you are right in saying youd have to be an insane optimist to think they could win in week 3. But upsets do happen, and if we made it and somehow someone like Kangaroos or Hawthorn had won in week 1 from the top 4 and we ran into them, I'd be more then willing to lay down on the line some significant quid that we could win.

All will depend on where everyone finishes though and whether a) we get a home final in week 1 and b) where we have to go come week 2 and hopefully week 3. For if the football gods smiled on us it would be a small and remote chance, but certainly not impossible.

If anyone is going to do it, this year is the year I feel it could happen though.

[Hazcam]

An optimist would back Sydney to break that drought and win their semi-final if they win in the first week from 5-8. But only an insane optimist would back them to back up again and win another away game against a winning top 4 team. Let alone then win the grannie.

I agree
History wont lie and 1 out of 14 is a damning stat.
The McIntyre system had it's flaws esp with the MCG contract to play at least a final every week.
But with this format it makes it very hard to win 4 straight finals away from home (in Sydney's case).