Top 4 door opens

[Captain]

Fact is we can still make the Top 4 if we lose one more.

Lets say we lose the Lions game, it is possible that we could still finish over the top of Eagles (lose to Kangas and Saints in Melb), Hawks (lose to Sydney and Lions) and Port (lose to Hawks and Geelong).

Top 4 of Cats, Roos, Pies then Swans...

Based on the above it's quite likely that all of this could happen (it's also quite possible that it won't happen )

[reigning premier]

What can i say about Jonno he is on fire ATM,but i reckon we can keep him quiet

LRT to return and tame his biatch....

[NMWBloods]

So, destiny is in our own hands. Never sure how good that is.

A really good chance to finish top 4 for the third year running.

However, our form still hasn't been great.

So far we've won against 3rd, 4th, 8th, 10th, 12th, 14th, 15th, 15th, 16th, 16th.

And we've lost against 1st, 2nd, 5th, 5th, 6th, 9th, 11th, 12th.

So we've mainly managed to beat the lowly teams. Thus the next 4 weeks will tell us a lot.

[annew]

So, destiny is in our own hands. Never sure how good that is.

A really good chance to finish top 4 for the third year running.

However, our form still hasn't been great.

So far we've won against 3rd, 4th, 8th, 10th, 12th, 14th, 15th, 15th, 16th, 16th.

And we've lost against 1st, 2nd, 5th, 5th, 6th, 9th, 11th, 12th.

So we've mainly managed to beat the lowly teams. Thus the next 4 weeks will tell us a lot.

That does highlight how ordinary we really are. Definitely need to win the next 4.

[Triple B]

That does highlight how ordinary we really are. Definitely need to win the next 4.

It highlights how ordinary we were.

Even though we can still go up a notch or two and will need to, we are playing significantly better than we were when we were losing to those sides above us.

[hammo]

It highlights how ordinary we were.

Even though we can still go up a notch or two and will need to, we are playing significantly better than we were when we were losing to those sides above us.

We won't definitively know that until after this week. I don't think wins against Fremantle, Carlton, Richmond and Melbourne tell us all that much except we did what we needed to do against poor teams.

For the latter 3, every team that's come up against them has won by similar, or greater margins (except more recently the Ratten coached Blues).

Still, if in Roos we trust, you just have to look at how similar 2007's run is to 2005 and how the momentum has gathered at a similar time of year.

[reigning premier]

So far we've won against 3rd, 4th, 8th, 10th, 12th, 14th, 15th, 15th, 16th, 16th.

And haven't we smacked the bejesus out of them when we have won????

[j s]

Both Port and North loosing games they were expected to win,

Not by me!!

opens the door ever so slightly for us to finish top 4.

The door would have been wider if Carlton had stayed on the field till the game was over.

[Jewels]

Not by me!!


The door would have been wider if Carlton had stayed on the field till the game was over.

If the AFL ever needed proof of tanking, that game was it.

[SimonH]

The results over the last cuppla weeks, and in particular this weekend, have been fantastic to put us on our mettle. As our chances of reaching the top 4 have fallen into our own hands, our chances of missing the top 8 entirely have also significantly increased.

Just 2 weeks ago, I estimated Sydney's chances of finishing top 4 if we won all of our remaining games and went 14-8, at just under 50%. Now they're closer to 90%.

Of the 6 teams above us, we already have Hawthorn and Collingwood covered (beating them would make up the one-game buffer they have, and their percentage is inferior). Of the remaining 3 reachable teams above us, if we go 14-8 we just need one of the following 3 to happen in the final 4 games to become a top 4 side:

• Roos lose 2 games
• Weagles lose one game
• Pahhhhr lose one game

Considering that the Roos are playing West Coast this weekend, that means that the only way we could go 14-8 and miss out is if the Weagles beat the Roos, and then after/apart from that, all 3 of those teams win all 10 of their remaining games. You could almost dismiss the possibility.

The way in which the ladder above us has opened up so much, is because the teams scrabbling for the lower reaches of the 8 have put together some crucial big wins. Thereby putting pressure on us from below. For teams like the Dogs and St Kilda who were never going to reach our percentage, in terms of getting ahead of Sydney a draw was just like a win for both of them. Brisbane's white-hot form means that we don't have a single easy game in the last 4 rounds. A string of not-improbable results could still see us miss out on the 8 altogether if we go 12-10. Of the 13 sides jockeying for a top 8 spot, only Fremantle is incapable of finishing above a Sydney team on 12-10.

Thinking we can go 13-9 and finish top 4, is still for the birds at this stage. The team that is 10th on the ladder is capable of ending up on more than 52 points; the string of favourable results you'd need to construct for us to finish on 13-9 and go top 4, would be long and convoluted.

[Bleed Red Blood]

Would be nice one year to avoid all the "if this happens we can finish top four.." by simply playing better earlier in the season.

[ScottH]

Would be nice one year to avoid all the "if this happens we can finish top four.." by simply playing better earlier in the season.

Stupidest idea ever.

[timthefish]

Would be nice one year to avoid all the "if this happens we can finish top four.." by simply playing better earlier in the season.

ah, but then we'd be getting twisty knickers about making the top two, the minor premiership, a % over 230 or engineering two home finals against poorly-travelling teams.

anything else would be accepting mediocrity.

[Jewels]

ah, but then we'd be getting twisty knickers about making the top two, the minor premiership, a % over 230 or engineering two home finals against poorly-travelling teams.

anything else would be accepting mediocrity.

Ahahaha, that's gold!

[Guzzitza]

It highlights how ordinary we were.

I think people are getting a little over optimistic after a few wins against teams that are fighting for the wooden spoon. Yes its nice to hope and have faith, but to say wehave had a sudden turn around of form would be jumping the gun a bit. Demons showed NO will to be real opposition. Richmond were jsut as bad, and Carlton werent great either. Sure its nice to bash up some kiddies on the field, but wait till we hit some real teams before championing some return to form.