The mathematical odds for a flag

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  • The Big Cat
    On the veteran's list
    • Apr 2006
    • 2347

    The mathematical odds for a flag

    If we assume all teams in the eight are of comparable ability then each of the top four sides have a 3 in 16 chance of winning the flag, while each of the bottom four teams have only a 1 in 16 chance. (ie. Swans have only a third of the chance that the top four teams have)

    After the first week, both winning qualifying final winners have a 1 in 4 chance while the other four remaining teams each have a 1 in 8 chance. (ie. If still alive the Swans have half the chance of the top two)

    Once at the preliminary finals stage all teams become a 1 in 4 chance, and of course the grand final teams have a 1 in 2 chance. (If still alive at the preliminary final stage, the Swans have an equal chance with all other competitors)

    Piece of cake!
    Those who have the greatest power to hurt us are those we love.
  • originalswan
    On the Rookie List
    • Aug 2004
    • 550

    #2
    Can you please pass this advice onto the bookmakers who constantly have the Swans at ridiculous odds - Or are there alot of rich Swans supporters out there?

    Comment

    • j s
      Think positive!
      • Jan 2003
      • 3303

      #3
      Originally posted by originalswan
      Can you please pass this advice onto the bookmakers who constantly have the Swans at ridiculous odds - Or are there alot of rich Swans supporters out there?
      Obviously the bookies don't agree with Big Cat's initial assumption
      Originally posted by The Big Cat
      assume all teams in the eight are of comparable ability

      Comment

      • barry
        Veterans List
        • Jan 2003
        • 8499

        #4
        We have 4 away finals to go. Theoritically you could call them 50/50 games but because we are travelling, and we are playing teams above us. Its more like 40/60 per game.

        4/10 * 4/10 * 4/10 *4/10 = 2.5 % chance of being premier.

        or 1 in 40 chance.

        Tricky!

        Comment

        • Zlatorog
          Senior Player
          • Jan 2006
          • 1748

          #5
          Yeah, as you said it, it's a mathematical possibility only.

          Comment

          • The Big Cat
            On the veteran's list
            • Apr 2006
            • 2347

            #6
            Originally posted by barry
            We have 4 away finals to go. Theoritically you could call them 50/50 games but because we are travelling, and we are playing teams above us. Its more like 40/60 per game.

            4/10 * 4/10 * 4/10 *4/10 = 2.5 % chance of being premier.

            or 1 in 40 chance.

            Tricky!
            Plus given the usual bias of umpires especially at away venues our chances are probably 3/10*3/10*3/10*3/10 = .81 % chance of the flag

            or a 1 in 123 chance. Why have I bought tickets?
            Those who have the greatest power to hurt us are those we love.

            Comment

            • katie-scarlett
              On the Rookie List
              • Dec 2005
              • 515

              #7
              so... does anyone here watch Numb3rs..

              Comment

              • Bas
                Veterans List
                • Jan 2003
                • 4457

                #8
                Originally posted by katie-scarlett
                so... does anyone here watch Numb3rs..
                No, can't find the channel it's on.
                In memory of my little Staffy - Dicey, 17.06.2005 to 1.12.2011- I'll miss you mate.

                Comment

                • NMWBloods
                  Taking Refuge!!
                  • Jan 2003
                  • 15819

                  #9
                  Originally posted by katie-scarlett
                  so... does anyone here watch Numb3rs..
                  I'm sure there would be chalkboards full of equations to explain our chances of making the GF!
                  Captain Logic is not steering this tugboat.

                  "[T]here are things that matter more and he's reading and thinking about them: heaven, reincarnation. Life and death are the only things that are truly a matter of life and death. Not football."

                  Comment

                  • reigning premier
                    Suspended by the MRP
                    • Sep 2006
                    • 4335

                    #10
                    As soon as you throw the term "mathematical" into a sentence relating to premierships or finals, it's all over

                    Comment

                    • katie-scarlett
                      On the Rookie List
                      • Dec 2005
                      • 515

                      #11
                      Originally posted by reigning premier
                      As soon as you throw the term "mathematical" into a sentence relating to premierships or finals, it's all over
                      for who? the team involved?

                      can someone start a thread involving the kitties & a mathematical equation please? & perhaps the eagles. & every other team in the top 8.

                      Comment

                      • sharp9
                        Senior Player
                        • Jan 2003
                        • 2508

                        #12
                        The odds for Geelong are not that much better than for the Swans. If they lose this week they land in EXACTLY the same position as us (except they have a theoretical home advantage before playing away to Port or Eagles in a PF).

                        To put it another way a top four team has to beat THREE top four teams.
                        A top 8 team has to beat the 6th placed side and THEN beat three top four sides. It really is only one game different...if you're good enough it will not make much difference. Usually, of course the 5-8 teams are no good and get found out (WB, Collingwood, Kangas last year) don't confuse that with the "pathway being too difficult."

                        Or to put it another way, if we beat Collingwood this week we are effectively in the top four (ie: we have to beat three top four sides in a row to win the flag).
                        "I'll acknowledge there are more talented teams in the competition but I won't acknowledge that there is a better team in the competition" Paul Roos March 2005

                        Comment

                        • NMWBloods
                          Taking Refuge!!
                          • Jan 2003
                          • 15819

                          #13
                          Originally posted by sharp9
                          The odds for Geelong are not that much better than for the Swans. If they lose this week they land in EXACTLY the same position as us (except they have a theoretical home advantage before playing away to Port or Eagles in a PF).
                          Not "exactly" - the theoretical home advantage is real - it means not having to play away.

                          To put it another way a top four team has to beat THREE top four teams.
                          A top 8 team has to beat the 6th placed side and THEN beat three top four sides. It really is only one game different...if you're good enough it will not make much difference.
                          But it obviously does make a difference as only one team has ever done it, and most of the time they don't go close. The home ground advantage (or lack of travel) becomes a factor here too.

                          Usually, of course the 5-8 teams are no good and get found out (WB, Collingwood, Kangas last year) don't confuse that with the "pathway being too difficult."
                          I think that is part of the story, but not all.

                          Or to put it another way, if we beat Collingwood this week we are effectively in the top four (ie: we have to beat three top four sides in a row to win the flag).
                          Not really. If a team in the top 4 win this week, they get a week off and then a home final.
                          Captain Logic is not steering this tugboat.

                          "[T]here are things that matter more and he's reading and thinking about them: heaven, reincarnation. Life and death are the only things that are truly a matter of life and death. Not football."

                          Comment

                          • Industrial Fan
                            Goodesgoodesgoodesgoodes!
                            • Aug 2006
                            • 3317

                            #14
                            Originally posted by katie-scarlett
                            so... does anyone here watch Numb3rs..
                            God damn that is a stupid show. Ranks up there with Troma Entertainment in terms of script writing. In Tromas defence, at least they are not under any pretense that they're good.
                            He ate more cheese, than time allowed

                            Comment

                            • Jewels
                              On the Rookie List
                              • Oct 2006
                              • 3258

                              #15
                              Originally posted by sharp9
                              The odds for Geelong are not that much better than for the Swans. If they lose this week they land in EXACTLY the same position as us (except they have a theoretical home advantage before playing away to Port or Eagles in a PF).
                              I feel for the Cats this year in so far as after the brilliant season they have had, not having their home ground advantage. I know they don't have the travel to factor in, but not being able to play finals at Skilled is a major disadvantage to them, they are far more disadvantaged then the other three top finishers.

                              Comment

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