Analysis of our "aging" list for 2008

[Bas]

With the talk of the Swans being too old next year, I thought I would break down the ages of players into different age categories, and their general position.

I have included Brennan and Barlow as well as the new guys.

30 yrs plus

1. Everitt (34) (R)
2. B. Kirk (32) (M)
3. Micky O (31) (F)
4. B Hall (31) (F)
5. J.Crouch (30) (M)
6. L Barry (31) (B)
7. B. Matthews (30) (B)


25 to 29 yrs

1. L Ablett (26) (M)
2. C. Bolten (28) (B)
3. J. Bolten (28) (M)
4. Bucky (26) (M)
5. N. Davis (28) (F)
6. S. Doyle (27) (R)
7. D. Jolly (27) (R)
8. A. Goodes (28) (Everywhere)
9. N. Fosdike (28) (M)
10. T. Kennelly (27) (B)
11. R. O'Keefe (27) (F)
12. T. Richards (25) (B)
13. LRT (25) (B)
14. H. Playfair (25) (B)
15. M. Mattner (26) (B)

20 yrs to 24 yrs

1. R.Brabazon (22) (M)
2. H. Grundy (22) (F)
3. M Laidlaw (21) (M)
4. N. Malceski (24) (B)
5. T. Schmidt (22) (M)
6. E. Barlow (21) (M)
7. P. Faulks (20) (B)
8. K. Thornton (20) (B?)
9. J. McVeigh (23) (M)
10. K.Jack (21) (M)
11. J. White (20) (F?)
12. D O'Keefe (20) (M)
12. J. Moore (22) (M)
13. L Brennan (23) (B)


19 yrs and under

1. D. Currie (19) (R)
2. C. Bird
3. Draft Pick 11
4. Draft Pick 26

Looking at this list generates a few questions that I had not previously thought about:

1. I don't think that the list is "aging" as such. It's just a perception that some of the key people are over 30 but there is depth underneath. Replace the top 5 with much younger players and the list looks younger. Or is this wishful tinking?

2. Lots of players on 27 and 28 yrs. You would hope they don't retire at the same time.

3. My uneducated guess on who the Swans will draft - A midfielder in Bird, I would think a Ruckman and a KP player (probably forward)

[AnnieH]

Wow.
I didn't realise that Kirky was older than MickyO.
Five of the top seven are eligible for the penioner list aren't they?
Shouldn't we be getting salary considerations for them?

[Bas]

Only by 4 months though.

[Bas]

Wow.
I didn't realise that Kirky was older than MickyO.
Five of the top seven are eligible for the penioner list aren't they?
Shouldn't we be getting salary considerations for them?

You can only pension off 2 players that have been on your list. They have to have been on for minimum of 10 years. The rest are baggage!

[AnnieH]

Only by 4 months though.

Still, those are some pretty highly-paid players.
Don't we only have to count half their salary? Blind Barry's on $2Mil.
You'd think we'd have more "dollar" room to pick up some of the better players available on the draft.

[AnnieH]

You can only pension off 2 players that have been on your list. They have to have been on for minimum of 10 years. The rest are baggage!

So we can only claim half of Micky's wage.
Bah.

[DST]

Still, those are some pretty highly-paid players.
Don't we only have to count half their salary? Blind Barry's on $2Mil.
You'd think we'd have more "dollar" room to pick up some of the better players available on the draft.

2008 will see a salary cap of:

$7,430,000 (Basic cap)
$519,000 (Addiontal Service Agreement or ASA)
$520,100 (Cost of Living or COL)

$8,469,000 (Total)

Based on those figures, the proviso that the COL must be spread evenly amongst the group based on years at the club and the ASA has to be spread based on the work done by all players through Team Swans, there is no way Hall is on $2 Million.

If Goodes is getting $750,000 a year then Hall would be somewhere between $500,000 and $750,000 depending on team and individual goals acheived during the year.

DST

[Legs Akimbo]

1. I don't think that the list is "aging" as such. It's just a perception that some of the key people are over 30 but there is depth underneath. Replace the top 5 with much younger players and the list looks younger. Or is this wishful tinking?

A key problem is that some of our best players fall into the older age category being Everitt, Kirk, Hall and Berry

Try this split to get a different perspective..

28 years plus (performance likely to decline)

1. Everitt (34) (R)
2. B. Kirk (32) (M)
3. Micky O (31) (F)
4. B Hall (31) (F)
5. J.Crouch (30) (M)
6. L Barry (31) (B)
7. B. Matthews (30) (B)
2. C. Bolten (28) (B)
3. J. Bolten (28) (M)
5. N. Davis (28) (F)
8. A. Goodes (28) (Everywhere)
9. N. Fosdike (28) (M)

23 - 27 (peaking)

1. L Ablett (26) (M)
4. Bucky (26) (M)
6. S. Doyle (27) (R)
7. D. Jolly (27) (R)
10. T. Kennelly (27) (B)
11. R. O'Keefe (27) (F)
12. T. Richards (25) (B)
13. LRT (25) (B)
14. H. Playfair (25) (B)
15. M. Mattner (26) (B)
9. J. McVeigh (23) (M)
13. L Brennan (23) (B)
4. N. Malceski (24) (B)

The point is that few players get better at the age of 28 years. 23 to 28 would be the peak of an AFL players these days, unless the player is an elite such as Harvey, Buckley, Hird etc. Fortunately, I think Goodes will fit into that category, possibly Kirk, but @@@@ all else on the list (Hall included).

The other issue is the lack of genuine developing talent in the 20 - 24 age range. Most of those guys are totally unknown or known to be average. That's the problem with leaving guys in Canberra.

Anyway, I think we are in deep @@@@.

[NMWBloods]

Try this split to get a different perspective..

28 years plus (performance likely to decline)

...

Anyway, I think we are in deep @@@@.

I agree because the majority of game time comes from the players in this category. This is why we desperately need Roos to cut the TOG for players like J Bolton, Crouch and a few others, and replace with younger players.

[Legs Akimbo]

I agree because the majority of game time comes from the players in this category. This is why we desperately need Roos to cut the TOG for players like J Bolton, Crouch and a few others, and replace with younger players.

Yep, it's also comparative in the sense that I think you have to line up all the sides to see how their lists match up within age bands. The reality is that Hawthorn, Collingwood, Brisbane, Geelong, Carlton and possibly Richmond have much more talented lists in the 18 - 24 year age range. I honestly, don't see how we can hope to match these teams once their 20 - 24 age players mature into the core of their team. I feel like a down and out pessimist, but the window of opportunity is well and trully shut. Said it before - history shows it was worth another crack in 2006 with the existing list, and 2007 was a marginal proposition - could have gone either way. Injuries played their part. However, as of 2008, we will start paying the price for our gamble which did not pay off.

[Bloody Hell]

Yep, it's also comparative in the sense that I think you have to line up all the sides to see how their lists match up within age bands. The reality is that Hawthorn, Collingwood, Brisbane, Geelong, Carlton and possibly Richmond have much more talented lists in the 18 - 24 year age range. I honestly, don't see how we can hope to match these teams once their 20 - 24 age players mature into the core of their team. I feel like a down and out pessimist, .....

I agree but couldn't the same be said about the past 5 years.

WC, Saints, Geelong, Dogs etc have had the "best" lists.

[liz]

I'm probably repeating here a bit of what NMW and Legs have noted but I don't think the 30+ group is really the issue. (And I'm willing to wager a fair bit that Brett Kirk will still be around and finishing top 5 in the B&F after at least half of that 20-24 group have been cut from the list.)

It is the concentration of stalwarts in the 26-29 age range that is going to cause us the problems in the not too distant future.

[Bas]

It is the concentration of stalwarts in the 26-29 age range that is going to cause us the problems in the not too distant future.

I agree with the first comment you made which I deleted from the quote but I'm wondering what problems are you suggesting Liz? I would have though that player management should prevent this from happening otherwise it's the Club's fault for not cutting deadwood.

[liz]

I agree with the first comment you made which I deleted from the quote but I'm wondering what problems are you suggesting Liz? I would have though that player management should prevent this from happening otherwise it's the Club's fault for not cutting deadwood.

It is just another way of saying that we don't have many obvious replacements from the age group below. So if we are still relying on so many of these players in a couple of years time, we'll suddenly have 10+ 30 yos (or near 30yos).

Of that next group down, there is only one player whose name you look at and feel absolute confidence that he will be a long term quality contributor. McVeigh seems to be established in the team but has shown little signs of being even a sometimes matchwinner. Schmidt has his foot in the door but who knows if he'll step up over the next year or two to be a top 10 B&Fer. Hopefully he will but I wouldn't wager anything much on it. In all likelihood at least a couple of others will become good quality players but I'm not sure I'd like to nominate which they are.

I'm really saying what many have already commented on - that they need to start getting match time into that 20-24 age group to find out if any of them are any good.

[DST]

I'm really saying what many have already commented on - that they need to start getting match time into that 20-24 age group to find out if any of them are any good.

Hence why both Scheinder and Dempster are gone, both Buchanen and J Bolton got a kick up the arse and why Matthews, Bevan and to a lesser extent Crouch are not guaranteed game time early next year.

Fitness and attitude permitting, I can see us giving Schmidt, Moore, Barlow, Laidlaw, D O'Keefe, Thornton and even Jesse White all a serious run and crack at first team football within the first 5 rounds next year.

DST