how good are we

[swansrule100]

can we win the premiership?

everyone seems to think depth is awesome and we are performing well but are we going to win the flag??

[Plugger46]

It's wide open. If we make the top 4, we're in the mix.

[royboy42]

If we make the 4, stand back and watch!! We will have as good a chance as anyone..and don't forget finals experience is worth a goal or two as well.
But finish outside the 4 and it's BLOODY tough!

[573v30]

Only if the Swans finish top 4.

[Destructive]

I think at this stage that we'll make it to the 2nd week of the finals.

[Zlatorog]

Too early to tell. Some of you are heading ahead of yourself. We'll know more after our game against the Magpies.

[hot potato]

There are some very promising signs and the chemistry at the club seems to be excellent, and this is a most important ingredient in winning the Granny, there is a great hunger to be in the 22 ATM. Goodes is flying, MOL is playing like a 25 yr old, ROK is really happy (newly married), Jolly is having a ball, the youngsters are SO enjoying it, the GAWK is stepping up, Eski looks right, there are no glaring passengers, there were 12 individual goal kickers on the weekend.
I'm thoroughly enjoying it. Who knows, just keep bloody cheering.

[Jewels]

There are some very promising signs and the chemistry at the club seems to be excellent, and this is a most important ingredient in winning the Granny, there is a great hunger to be in the 22 ATM. Goodes is flying, MOL is playing like a 25 yr old, ROK is really happy (newly married), Jolly is having a ball, the youngsters are SO enjoying it, the GAWK is stepping up, Eski looks right, there are no glaring passengers, there were 12 individual goal kickers on the weekend.
I'm thoroughly enjoying it. Who knows, just keep bloody cheering.

That to me is the biggest difference to last season. Even when one has a bad game one week, they are stepping up the next. It's all good

[mcs]

I reckon the Collingwood game will give us a good indication. if we can have a good run till then (Min of 2 wins but really need to win 3) and at worst be competitive and lose narrowly then Ill really begin to believe. I sense there is a good feeling around the club but until we get really tested (Pies and Hawthorn back to back) its hard to tell. But the signs are good- if we can make the 4 then you just never know.

Im off overseas next year on uni exchange and am desperately saving every last penny I can for it, but Im also beginning to put a bit away seperately to that, as I just got a feeling that we could be well and truly in the action come late September and if we are I am going to be there (Seeing as I missed the 05 triumph due to the blastard HSC!). Its only a feeling at the moment, but the signs are promising, but I will wait till be play the Pies and Hawthorn and see where we are at after that to go further in what I think. But for the season so far, I give us an A! So far so good but there is a lot of footy yet to be played.

Onwards to victory!!

[NMWBloods]

Because of the bizarre draw this year we probably won't really know what state we're in on the poll until near the end of the H&A season, as discussed in the other thread a couple of weeks ago. Adelaide are in a similar position, as mentioned on OTC last night.

We are 6-1-3.

Wins against 7th, 10th, 10th, 12th, 13th, 14th

Draw against 8th

Losses against 2nd, 3rd, 9th.


Based on current ladder positions, over the next 12 weeks we play:
13th, 9th, 16th, 6th, 1st, 11th, 4th, 3rd, 15th, 2nd, 6th, 7th.

Our record against teams in the 8 is 1-1-2
We play 7 teams in the 8 in the next 12 weeks (in the last 9 weeks actually).

Our record against teams outside the 8 is 5-1.
We play 5 teams outside the 8 in the next 12 weeks.

[Zlatorog]

So, if we keep the same ratio till the end of H&A season it means we can only win another 6-7 games, which places us in top 8, but not top 4.

[DST]

Because of the bizarre draw this year we probably won't really know what state we're in on the poll until near the end of the H&A season, as discussed in the other thread a couple of weeks ago. Adelaide are in a similar position, as mentioned on OTC last night.

We are 6-1-3.

Wins against 7th, 10th, 10th, 12th, 13th, 14th

Draw against 8th

Losses against 2nd, 3rd, 9th.


Based on current ladder positions, over the next 12 weeks we play:
13th, 9th, 16th, 6th, 1st, 11th, 4th, 3rd, 15th, 2nd, 6th, 7th.

Our record against teams in the 8 is 1-1-2
We play 7 teams in the 8 in the next 12 weeks (in the last 9 weeks actually).

Our record against teams outside the 8 is 5-1.
We play 5 teams outside the 8 in the next 12 weeks.

Good analysis, but the problem is how do you rate those two wins against 10th (Port)?

Are they not as good this year so we are over rating the wins or are they only 10th because they have played us twice and Hawthorn, Brisbane and Geelong once in the first 10 rounds?

Who knows, but what I do like is our defence is tight, we are scoring more, are top or equal top in quarters won and time in the lead and have the best percentage so it shows that we are at least on our game at present.

If we can beat West Coast in Perth and bury our bogey side Collingwood in the next five weeks then we will be flying.

DST

[NMWBloods]

Yep - Port is an unknown, but not doing so well against top teams.

Against teams in the 8 they are 0-6 and teams outside the 8 they are 4-0.

[australian_made]

Even if we finish between 5th and 8th, we will just be the first team to win outside of the top 4 since Adelaide, provided we avoid the Crows and the Pies on the way to the GF

[top40]

Now we are half way through the Home and Away season, it should be pointed out that the Swans are having their best half way performance since 1986, when they were 9-2. In 1996 as of Round 11 they were, as with this year 7-3-1, but their % wasn't as good.

Now, let's really put a lid on it: in the past 20 years or so, nearly every year the Swans improve in the second half the season.