If He ReBuilds it, Finals will Keep Coming

[ItsAllGoodes]

Article on how quickly Roosy has 'rebuilt' the Swans

Sportal > AFL > News

[Primmy]

Thanks for the link - Ida missed it.

[ScottH]

If that was rebuilding.
Let's do it regularly!!
Better than tanking.

[liz]

Hardly a "rebuild". We still have the same core of players who took us to two consecutive grandfinals, and the second of those was less than two seasons ago. If we emerge out of the tough second half of the season still poised to challenge, what Roos (and his team) will have proved is that his core of very good players is ultra-consistent in that they can maintain such high levels of play for an extended number of season, and that the team has the ability to evolve its approach subtly in a way that the media seems to have underestimated.

[SimonH]

Agree with liz. Talk of a 'rebuild' is just crap, and the meeja trying to cover their tracks as to how a supposedly ageing side on the decline, their bodies beaten by years of playing hard contested footy, could suddenly find themselves in the top 4.

The reason why it makes me cross is that a deeply flawed theory ('bottoming out', 'rebuilding', 'premiership window') has become accepted wisdom to the point where even results that prove that it's largely nonsense, are interpreted through its prism. It's a bit like religious fundamentalists responding to the triumph of the theory of evolution by saying, 'Yes, well, I am prepared to concede that God in his cleverness created us from dust with our brains wired to believe in evolution'.

Two comments of his are worth noting:

The Swans began this season with a massive 11 players that were either already 28 or would turn 28 during the course of the season.

That's not excessively old. The Paahhr 2004 premiership side had 8 players the wrong side of 28 (most of them being over 30 years old), plus a couple of 27 year olds. Add in the fact that most of our 11 are more like 28 than 30+. The idea that a list like Carlton's (apparently their oldest listed player is Saddo!) is a recipe for success is completely contrary to all evidence. By the time that Carlton's current group, if it sticks together and does well, finally does succeed, then surprise surprise, it'll have an age profile much like most premiership-winning sides: a few players in their late 20s/early 30s, the larger core of the side in their mid-20s, and just a sprinkling of genuine young'uns.

The Swans have long been accused, including by this column, of being the AFL's most boring team to watch but there has also been a significant change in their style of play this season.

For the first time since Roos became coach, the Swans are averaging over 100 points per game and this is even more impressive considering Hall's long-term spell on the sidelines.

I'm sorry, but it's time to call 'ignorant rubbish' on Mr Gould. For the first time since Roos became coach, we are 8-1-3 after 12 rounds. That's the only 'significant change in their style of play'. Surely someone who has noticed a 'significant change' should be able to specify what it is?

I said several weeks ago in a thread on our low-scoring status:

If we win more, our average for and against will start to look better and better. If we hit a streak of form and make it to 9-1-3 at the split round, I guarantee that by then our average goals kicked/game will be better than 14, and better than most of the comp. It's a symptom, not a cause.

Anyone who has actually watched Sydney over the last 5 weeks should know that we haven't changed our style at all. The way that we clawed back to beat the Weagles was vintage Roos Swans. Due to the improved form of many (mostly youngsters, but also the likes of Jolly and MOL) and latterly having Mattner, Malceski and Kennelly all in the one side, we have just played our long-established existing style better. And pointing to individual players like those above, is the only reason Gould is actually able to give for our improvement.

(The jury is still out on the accuracy of my above statement, by the way: we need 10 goals against Melbourne to exceed a 14 average, and at the moment we've kicked more goals than 9 other sides but a higher score than only 8 others-- Adelaide one less goal but 20 more behinds.)

[Donners]

Wait until we lose Everitt, Mathews, Davis and Crouch at the end of this year, then O'Loughlin, Barry, Kennelly, Hall (?) and Kirk (?) at the end of 2009, then talk about rebuilding...

[Legs Akimbo]

...but bottoming out does work. Hawthorn is testament to that. Geelong sort of bottomed out. I think the point is you don't have to bottom out to remain competitive. Personally, I think what keeps us competitive without bottoming out is our expanded rookie list. It is a massive advantage.

[liz]

...but bottoming out does work. Hawthorn is testament to that. Geelong sort of bottomed out. I think the point is you don't have to bottom out to remain competitive. Personally, I think what keeps us competitive without bottoming out is our expanded rookie list. It is a massive advantage.

Hawthorn have achieved nothing yet.

And while I agree our expanded rookie list is some advantage, I don't think you can say it is "massive". The only senior players we've got from it are Bevan and Barlow. I think it's a long bow to draw to say other youngsters developed more quickly because they got to play alongside Rowe, Shaw, Clarke and Potter for a couple of years.

[Donners]

Don't forget Kennelly came from the rookie list as well.

And...um...Grundy and Vogels...aaand...Mieklejohn, Piltz and Aaron Rogers...

[liz]

Every club gets rookies though. We have no advantages that delivered us Kennelly, Grundy, Vogels (or Phillips, Smith, O'Dwyer, Murphy, Orreal, Jack).

[AnnieH]

Wait until we lose Everitt, Mathews, Davis and Crouch at the end of this year, then O'Loughlin, Barry, Kennelly, Hall (?) and Kirk (?) at the end of 2009, then talk about rebuilding...

My thoughts exactly.

[TheGrimReaper]

Don't forget Kennelly came from the rookie list as well.

And...um...Grundy and Vogels...aaand...Mieklejohn, Piltz and Aaron Rogers...

You make out the rookie list is a bad idea?

[SimonH]

...but bottoming out does work. Hawthorn is testament to that. Geelong sort of bottomed out.

If by 'bottoming out' you mean 'finishing last or near last over an extended period to accumulate a number of high draft picks', it works to turn you from a long-term chopping block into a side that can expect to make the lower reaches of the 8 (but is still a long way from a flag). And to even do that much (i.e. get to a point below where Sydney are now), you have to finish at or near the bottom for a number of years; not just one year.

The only way to get a flag is the old-school method of teamwork, fitness, mental toughness, a touch of individual brilliance and a bit of luck to boot. High draft picks will most probably give you one of those 5.

Have Buddy, Mitchell and whatever other top picks are on the Hawks' list playing at their absolute best, alongside teammates with a low fitness base, a weak team plan, and insufficient mental resolve, and you've got an ordinary side.

You don't need to subscribe to Blight's 'bottom 6' theory to recognise that if Carlton do win a flag with the current crop, it'll be because blokes of the calibre of Carazzo and Thornton (who both made it via the rookie draft) can play at the required level, not just because the other 17 can stand back and applaud while Fevola, Kreuzer, Murphy, Gibbs and Judd do their thing.

Geelong never bottomed out at all. The changes to their playing list from 2006 to 2007 were minimal.

[Donners]

You make out the rookie list is a bad idea?

Not at all, I was merely agreeing with Liz's point that the sheer number of rookies we have available does not necessarily mean a steady stream of quality players coming through.

[TheGrimReaper]

Not at all, I was merely agreeing with Liz's point that the sheer number of rookies we have available does not necessarily mean a steady stream of quality players coming through.

You are not calling Kennelly quality?

Dean Cox came from the rookie list, and he is the premier ruckman in the AFL.

Brett Kirk is a champ, came from the rookie list.

The rookie list is a great idea from the AFL.