Easy Draw....

[sharp9]

For Geelong. We have a shocker.

I did some really detailed analysis of the draw (which my wife ACCIDENTLY threw out) so I'll have to remember the relevant bits.

Basically Geelong has a really easy draw and ours (and North's) are just terrible. My point of reference has now changed a bit a bit, but nevertheless it was based on the fact that 10 days ago there we 10 teams in contention (this was before Port lost to Carlton).

This means that for those 10 teams there were 9 other contenders and 6 easy beats in the comp. As you know all teams play 7 other teams twice.

Geelong and Adelaide, unbelievably, play just THREE (yes THREE) of the other 9 contenders twice!!!!!! They have FOUR double games against easy beats.

The Swans and North, however, play SIX of the other NINE contenders twice.....that's right, SIX. Which means that in the entire season we only get to play ONE of the easy beats twice.....and guess who that was....that's right, West Coast at Subiaco was our ONLY easy beat return game. UNBELIEVABLE!!!!

To put this into perspective, we play 15 games against contenders and 7 against easy beats......Geelong and Adelaide play 12 against contenders (and for Adelaide that includes two home games against Port)

I also punched in the year to date (first 11 games) and found that Sydney had had the hardest draw (with 7/11 against contenders) while Adelaide had, had only 4. Geelong...the easiest draw has 6 in each half of the season. Brisbane and St. Kilda have an easier run in than most, whilst Adelaide, Sydney, Bulldogs and (I think) Collingwood play 8 out of 11 games against contenders.

Hawthorn's draw is mild. So in sum, it will be very, very unlikely that Geelong OR Hawthorn will not be the top two. It would take a big slump in form on one of their parts for that to happen.

In the remaining 10 games we play 7 games against contenders and 3 we should win (Melb at Canberra, Freo at SCG and Carlton at Telstra Dome). If we win 4 of the 7 against contenders that should see us in the four (comfortably) on 15.5 wins with a very good percentage.

It's a pretty big if.....Collingwood (home and away), Brisbane (home), Geelong (home), Adelaide (home), Bulldogs (Canberra), Hawthorn (MCG).

But there are only 2 genuine away games in that lot.....so I am very much hoping we can find a way to win four of them.

Hey I've just noticed that in the last 9 games of the year we play 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th (twice) and 7th!!! (if you ignore us on the ladder).

That has to be the hardest run home in the history of football I would have thought. If we get into the top four with that draw there will be absolutely NOBODY questioning our right to be there.

Anyhoo, Cheer, Cheer!!

[desredandwhite]

It's pretty simple really - if we deserve to be there, we will win the games we have to in order to get there

I'd rather be competitive against the top sides (and in doing so BE one of the top sides) than simply thrash the bottom sides each week.

[Jeffers1984]

It's pretty simple really - if we deserve to be there, we will win the games we have to in order to get there

I'd rather be competitive against the top sides (and in doing so BE one of the top sides) than simply thrash the bottom sides each week.

Exactly Des. We had a similar hardish run in the 2nd half of 05 and it did us wonders.

If we're good enough we'll get through it. This will toughen us up even more for finals.

[johnno]

Personally, I am a firm believer in the revenge factor when it comes to winning and losing games. for example, I believe we will beat both Collingwood and Adelaide when we play them in the coming weeks, collingwood because they made us look second rate each time we played them last year, and Adelaide because they really are our bogey side, I think Roos' record is something like 1 win and 9 losses. not good. Having said that, i also believe Carlton will beat us as well. Yes, Carlton. They havent beaten us since rd 8 2000, in fact we have beaten them the last 10 times we have played them, and theres been some thumpings there too. If Ratten can get it right, he will have his chargers highly motivated for the game against us. If not, then we will thump them again.

[SimonH]

Viewed in its totality, I believe that Sydney have had a relatively easy run. Aided by the fact that 2 teams that we have already played twice that you would have put down as probable 1-1 splits when the draw was released-- Port and the Weagles-- have been well down this year.

As against that, you would've put down the Dogs as a team you'd like to play twice after 2007, and now we're 0-1 with the away leg to go against them.

Our 'problem' is simply that we've had a run of relatively easy games in a block, and now we have a run of relatively hard games in a block. We can't complain about the fact that we're going to play the likes of Adelaide (at home) and Hawthorn, when we're lucky enough to only face them once in the minor round!

I was hoping for 'revenge theory' to work when we played the Woods late last year in the minor round; and again in the elim final. That didn't go so well. The reason why teams beat you consistently is because they match up on you well. That doesn't stop happening just because you're motivated to avenge previous losses. With the competition so hot (despite lucky results last w/e), we will struggle to go top 4 if we can't split our 2 Woods games 1:1. And based on recent history against them, it would be a brave person to back us to do so.

The reason why I think we can do it, is because we have players like Mattner, Jack, McVeigh and Moore (and, um, Playfair) who either weren't playing for us in the earlier defeats or have developed significantly since we suffered them.

[snajik]

I'm most concerned about the Collingwood game. They match up on us very well and will be a bit more desperate following their unexpected loss to Carlton. Losing to Collingwood (and a subsequent loss of confidence) could be the difference between finish 1-4 or 5-8 as this game is followed by two road games (Hawthorn and Carlton).

It's a shame about the placement of the bye. I'm hoping it doesn't derail our momentum. I don't know if anyone has any stats on this but I have a feeling we don't perform well coming off a bye.

Don't know about Johnno's theory (wouldn't that have applied last year as well re Adelaide and Carlton?) however if it's right we'll lose to both Carlton and Hawthorn but beat the Crows.

[TheHood]

Personally, I am a firm believer in the revenge factor when it comes to winning and losing games. for example, I believe we will beat both Collingwood and Adelaide when we play them in the coming weeks, collingwood because they made us look second rate each time we played them last year, and Adelaide because they really are our bogey side, I think Roos' record is something like 1 win and 9 losses. not good. Having said that, i also believe Carlton will beat us as well. Yes, Carlton. They havent beaten us since rd 8 2000, in fact we have beaten them the last 10 times we have played them, and theres been some thumpings there too. If Ratten can get it right, he will have his chargers highly motivated for the game against us. If not, then we will thump them again.

Lets hope Carlton don't believe in the revenge factor against Sydney!

[mcs]

Its no doubt a really tough 2nd half draw but its not like its going to be easy come finals time. May as well play lots of hard tough footy coming into the finals imo. If we are good enough to make the 4 with the draw we have, I reckon that it means you are potentially good enough to win the flag

All could come down to the first game against Collingwood though- in front of a big home crowd and a big big match (Potentitally it could remove the Pies from a chance at the 4) if we can get a win it could really set us on the right path for the second half of the season and a serious assault on another flag.

[liz]

Last year against the Pies they beat us all over the ground but it was made to look even worse because our normally rock-solid defence was ripped apart, and not just by the unpressured delivery coming in.

The good news, at least for the first game, is that Rusling's speed won't be there, and neither will Rocca (in all likelihood). Cloke is still a dangerous player, though not currently in the best of form, but I have faith in the ability of LRT to at least partially nullify him. More than I have faith in Leo's ability to cope with the height and bulk of Rocca.

They still have 4 dangerous mids/smalls but Leo should be able to take Medhurst (with Ted on their substitute tall, most likely Reid), Bevan on Neon Leon, and Bolts on the dangerous Didak. They don't have much express speed through the middle, so Jack on Thomas might be an interesting match-up.

More pertinently, last year we were the "hunted" in these matches. Malthouse had publicly admired the way the Swans go about their footy for a while and had his team really set for those games, in the way he did against the Cats a few weeks ago. Will they still see us that way, or will three reasonably easy wins against us last year have them more relaxed coming in. Don't forget the "blockbuster fatigue syndrome" that Mick reckons they're suffering from.

At very worst, I think the round 13 game will be a close, tight encounter. We may not win but I don't think it will be an embarassment like last year. As for the round 21 game, that's far too far away to predict. Too much can change in terms of injuries / form and confidence fluctuations to know how we'll be going then.

[Reggi]

Lmatch-up.

More pertinently, last year we were the "hunted" in these matches. Malthouse had publicly admired the way the Swans go about their footy for a while and had his team really set for those games, in the way he did against the Cats a few weeks ago. Will they still see us that way, or will three reasonably easy wins against us last year have them more relaxed coming in. Don't forget the "blockbuster fatigue syndrome" that Mick reckons they're suffering from.

Think you are right, we tend to put our focus on the leading club at the time and Collingwood don't really rate from a teamand supporter perspective. Iamindifferent tot hem as they are always a mediocre team with a great coach, where as they seem fired up toplay us.

[hot potato]

The Pies are looking flaky, will be lapped up by the Doggies next Sunday, and ripe for a belting by the monk inspired Swans at Olympic stadium by a team they haven't really met before : the likes of Jack, Moore, Bird, a new model McVeigh, new model Bevo etc.

[BSA5]

I agree that we have a hard run home, but I reckon we've been pretty lucky in the first half of the season. It probably evens out. We've played the Saints (an absolute loser of a team) twice, Port twice, and WC twice, and North Melbourne, Essendon and Richmond once to date. Only three games have been against current top 8 sides of our first 12. So while our draw might be hard going into the finals, it has been really easy so far.

[No 14]

Exactly Des. We had a similar hardish run in the 2nd half of 05 and it did us wonders.

If we're good enough we'll get through it. This will toughen us up even more for finals.

Good memory... generally the teams that have a tough run and win continue to win through to the finals. As they are saying on the radio - you wouldn't want to be facing the swans in a final - they are relentless and don't give up.

[Mike_B]

The one thing I find problematic with all this talk of hard draws, easy draws and what not, is that its done halfway through the season when the picture of the stronger/weaker teams has panned out, which is often very different to what the assessment of the draw is when it first comes out.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but would any of us have expected all of Port, West Coast and St Kilda to be out of the 8 at round 12, when we had played them twice each already??? I seem to recall people complaining we had a tough draw early on before the season started....so now because those teams aren't playing well, we just change our minds and complain we have a tough run in??? Can't have it both ways people....

[DeadlyAkkuret]

The one thing I find problematic with all this talk of hard draws, easy draws and what not, is that its done halfway through the season when the picture of the stronger/weaker teams has panned out, which is often very different to what the assessment of the draw is when it first comes out.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but would any of us have expected all of Port, West Coast and St Kilda to be out of the 8 at round 12, when we had played them twice each already??? I seem to recall people complaining we had a tough draw early on before the season started....so now because those teams aren't playing well, we just change our minds and complain we have a tough run in??? Can't have it both ways people....

You're right about the first half of the draw, but the 2nd half was always going to be tough. Hawthorn was always going to be a hard game and our record against the Pies is embarrassing. The Geelong match...well I don't need to finish that sentence.

Throw in Adelaide and the Lions and you've got a reasonable testing draw, which looked difficult even before the season started.