Swans have toughest run home - Official

[No 14]

The Swans have the toughest run home of all the teams.
St Kilda have the easiest run home.

In the finals series, the preimiers (read:Swans) will most likely need to play 3 teams in the top 4 making the road to the flag the toughest (and sweetest) of all. Also - Based on the below St Kilda should make the finals

In this example, teams with a score of 36 means in the last 9 rounds they play an equal number of hard and easier games. More than 36 means a tougher run home, less than 36 an easier run home.

See below the list if you want to know the method and what the rating means.

46 SYDNEY
43 CARLTON
40 ADELAIDE
38 WC Evils
37 NORTH
37 BULLDOGS
36 COLLINGWOOD
36 GEELONG
35 BRISBANE LIONS
35 HAWTHORN
35 MELBOURNE
34 RICHMOND
33 PORT ADELAIDE
31 ESSENDON
31 FREMANTLE
29 ST KILDA


Method of Calculation.
I grouped teams by the number of premiership points recieved and gave them a score
1 point Melbourne, The Evils and Fremantle
2 points Essendon Port Adelaide
3 points St Kilda, Richmond, Carlton
4 points Collingwood, North Melbourne
5 points Adelaide, Brisbane
6 points Swans
7 Points Hawthorn
8 points Bulldogs
9 Points Geelong

I simply gave the ranking score to all the remaining games.

As a second validation I gave a score based on the ladder position, ie Geelong 16, Bulldogs 15, Hawthorn 14 down to Melbourne 1. The Swans still had the highest score, followed by Carlton, Adelaide and Collingwood. St kilda came in second last (Fremantle took last poition by one point).

[SimonH]

Sure, but let's not get silly. It says nothing about the hardness or easiness of our whole draw. It's pretty obvious that we've had a relatively easy run to R13. And now the hard games are coming home to roost.

For what it's worth, I would rather play 'young, exciting' teams like the Dogs and Hawks at the back end of the year than the front end; just as the long, tough year is wearing down their youthful enthusiasm and sense of invincibility. Just like anyone would have preferred to face St Kilda in the second half of 2004 as opposed to the first half.

[sharp9]

We didn't have an easy run to rnd 13...it just looks a bit like that because two of the teams we beat (St. Kilda and Port) are down the ladder in large part BECAUSE we beat them. Also us playing WC away is different than other teams playing them away....they put in a much, much better performance against us than they normally would.

I stand by my analysis from 2 weeks ago which shows that we had the most difficult draw of any team in the first 11 rounds (7 games against top 8 contenders) and the equal most difficult last 11 rounds (with Adelaide, Bulldogs and North). And in fact the end of our season got harder because what should have been an easy beat game against Carlton has now turned into a game a gasint a contender.

Other teams (like Adelaide)met Carlton when they were crap in the early part of the season, and now meet the Saints and/or Port when those teams are rebuilding.

[SimonH]

But anyone can always play that game: of course teams that you beat will 'look easier' because you beat them (they've got one more loss, and you're one more win ahead of them) and teams you lose to will 'look harder' (they've got one more win, and you're one more loss to boot).

The whole point of talking about 'easy draw' or 'hard draw' appears to be to justify the conclusion that the 16 clubs aren't competing on more-or-less even terms-- i.e. to tell the AFL to do better when preparing the next year's draw. Adding in the confounding factor of, 'well, this team was more in-form when we played them' makes the whole exercise pointless, because no-one preparing the next season's draw can possibly take it into account. The guy sitting there with his whiz-bang computer program ain't going to say, 'Let's see: I reckon that Carlton will start to click and have a surge from rounds 8-11. Let's add in a couple more 'difficulty points' for the teams that play them then'.

The two biggest determinants of the difficulty of your draw, by a mile, are:
? The teams you play twice, and
? Where you play.

We play St Kilda, West Coast, Port, Blions, Bulldogs, Geelong, Collingwood twice. Not easy as a whole, but not the hardest list you could compile either.

We play in Sydney 11 times, Canberra twice, Melbourne 5 times, Geelong once, Adelaide once, Perth once, Brisbane once. That's pretty favourable. 11 Sydney homegames, 6 Vic games and one Brisbane game are set in stone, leaving only 4 games to waver from year to year. This year, out of a maximum of 4 SA/WA trips, we have to do 2; and we get a bonus of 2 away games in Canberra.

[Mike_B]

My only suggestion would be, go back to having each team play the others once over rounds 1-15 and then do whatever you want from 16-22. When putting together the draw for the following year, do it based on positions after Rd 15, when the imbalance in the draw is at its lowest influence (home v away games only). Perhaps draw up two groups of 8 based on those Rd 15 positions - 1,4,5,8,9,12,13,16/2,3,6,7,10,11,14,15. Of course this won't suit the AFL if it means Carlton Essendon and Collingwood don't play each other twice, no 2 showdowns, no 2 derbies etc....

So in the end, until the AFL are willing to put fairness of the draw above gate receipts, we won't see it happen...

[swansrule100]

i think run home is quite good, if we are a top 4 team we should win most

playing collingwood twice isnt that good

but we play the dogs basically at home and the cats at home, we are a chance in both those games.

I think the draw this year is just hard to follow at times.

[SimonH]

My only suggestion would be, go back to having each team play the others once over rounds 1-15 and then do whatever you want from 16-22. When putting together the draw for the following year, do it based on positions after Rd 15, when the imbalance in the draw is at its lowest influence (home v away games only). Perhaps draw up two groups of 8 based on those Rd 15 positions - 1,4,5,8,9,12,13,16/2,3,6,7,10,11,14,15. Of course this won't suit the AFL if it means Carlton Essendon and Collingwood don't play each other twice, no 2 showdowns, no 2 derbies etc....

So in the end, until the AFL are willing to put fairness of the draw above gate receipts, we won't see it happen...

I agree; the AFL could do a modified version of this to keep its untouchable games, e.g. Port play Adelaide twice, and West Coast play Freo twice, but otherwise select 6 from your list of 7 (with the team that 'drops out' being the one that finished closest to the derby partner). The problem, as you've identified, is Carlton, Collingwood and Essendon. They would claim so many exceptions, the exceptions would eat the rule. The fact is the world isn't going to end if Collingwood meet Essendon only once in a given year, and teams with big followings will draw big crowds to their home games whoever they play; but try telling the AFL that.

[hot potato]

Love your work guys, but this is more in depth paralisis by analysis than the geeks are doing in the backroom of the Swans, I think i'll just take it one game at a time starting with Pies who we should roll, but will have to work a lot harder than against Dees. .

[No 14]

Love your work guys, but this is more in depth paralisis by analysis than the geeks are doing in the backroom of the Swans, I think i'll just take it one game at a time starting with Pies who we should roll, but will have to work a lot harder than against Dees. .

My only suggestion would be, go back to having each team play the others once over rounds 1-15 and then do whatever you want from 16-22.

Mike B - hear hear!
Hot Potato - it's all part of the fun. Love to debate others (like the tigers supporter at a dinner last night) with facts they don't think of. Agree that we just want to beat Collingwood in 2 weeks. Wish I could be at the game.

[goswannie14]

Hard draw, easy draw pffftt.

All teams have to to play the same amount of games from here on in. All teams draw is as hard as or as easy as anyone elses. The answer is to just win games against the teams we are drawn to play.

[Wazza]

Its a great draw to lead into a finals campaign, the run up to the finals should leave no doubt where we stand.

There are some "blockbusters" coming up that will be played in a finals atmosphere/tempo, this can only be a good thing.

If we have a good run we should remain top 4 and be well hardened and confident for the finals - Bring it on!!

[j s]

Also us playing WC away is different than other teams playing them away....they put in a much, much better performance against us than they normally would.

Agreed! What's left of their pride wouldn't let them tank against us - but we won anyway.

[DST]

What is helpful, is that we play most of those games at home or in Canberra.

We still have Geelong, Collingwood, Brisbane and Adelaide at home which are very winnable. Not to mention the Dogs in Canberra.

If we had this draw and were away more often than not, then I would be getting worried. But really, if we are good enough we will win 6 of our last 9, finish either 3rd or 4th and give it when hell of a crack in the first week of the finals to earn a home PF.

DST

[BigD]

I think the next two games in particular(Collingwood @ ANZ, Hawthorn in Melb) will give a good indication as to whether we are flag contenders or just pretenders.