What does last night mean?

[NMWBloods]

Possibly nothing!

It never ceases to amaze me the incredible fluctuations in this place. Over the past few weeks we've seen increasing views that we are flag material, regardless of who we have beaten, and nothing is allowed to be said against that without a barrage of "too negative" or "not a true supporter". Then just as quickly, we lose a game and there is a lot of gnashing of teeth and ripping of hair.

By itself I don't think last night's game means an awful lot. We have a couple of bogey teams under Roos and yet again one of them beat us.

Under Roos our record against Collingwood is 3-6 and two of those wins were by a goal or less against a Collingwood in the bottom four. Our other bogey team is Adelaide - 1-7 under Roos.

Despite having these bogey teams we have still managed to win a flag and make a second GF, so it doesn't necessarily mean a whole lot.

We played really really badly but each year we seem to pull out a few shockers. In 2005 we were ordinary to poor in at least half a dozen games. In 2006 we had disappointing losses to Coll, Adel and Geel in the second half of the season.

What's far more important is how we play in the remaining games. That the next two months is critical in the season hasn't changed from a couple of days ago. That we lost to Collingwood last night is not really a surprise to some.

We are still well placed to make the top four. I still think it unlikely we have the team yet (or any more) to progress far in finals this year, however if you get a good run you never know. Nevertheless, we will get a far better indication of what's in store for the team in Sept over the next two months than from last night.

[No 14]

It it looks like a duck, smells like a duck and sounds like a duck - it is probably a duck.

Collingwood play the same way against us each time and we keep to the same plan. Sounds to me like we need a different game plan against them - the next time we play them will we be ducks again?

[satchmopugdog]

Yes there are huge fluctuations here but it is a place where you can vent your spleen or celebrate with sort of friends...but still be anonymous...so things get exaggerated. Every so often there is a voice of reason and I hope your post is true that last night doesn't mean that much.

It is just that the Swans have become an important part of my identity...stupid I know so my reasoning seems to go out the door where they are concerned.

[dawson]

Possibly nothing!

It never ceases to amaze me the incredible fluctuations in this place. Over the past few weeks we've seen increasing views that we are flag material, regardless of who we have beaten, and nothing is allowed to be said against that without a barrage of "too negative" or "not a true supporter". Then just as quickly, we lose a game and there is a lot of gnashing of teeth and ripping of hair.

By itself I don't think last night's game means an awful lot. We have a couple of bogey teams under Roos and yet again one of them beat us.

Under Roos our record against Collingwood is 3-6 and two of those wins were by a goal or less against a Collingwood in the bottom four. Our other bogey team is Adelaide - 1-7 under Roos.

Despite having these bogey teams we have still managed to win a flag and make a second GF, so it doesn't necessarily mean a whole lot.

We played really really badly but each year we seem to pull out a few shockers. In 2005 we were ordinary to poor in at least half a dozen games. In 2006 we had disappointing losses to Coll, Adel and Geel in the second half of the season.

What's far more important is how we play in the remaining games. That the next two months is critical in the season hasn't changed from a couple of days ago. That we lost to Collingwood last night is not really a surprise to some.

We are still well placed to make the top four. I still think it unlikely we have the team yet (or any more) to progress far in finals this year, however if you get a good run you never know. Nevertheless, we will get a far better indication of what's in store for the team in Sept over the next two months than from last night.

All it means is that we didn't get the four points. Nothing more, nothing less.

[Xie Shan]

Oh, I'm always disappointed when we lose, especially when we play the way we did last night, but I agree with you NMW. I think it's important to keep things in perspective. Following an AFL team is a lot of fun and I'll most probably bleed red and white for many years to come, but it can be an emotional rollercoaster at times. That said, I think that the mood on here following yesterday's loss is just reflecting the mood at the ground--frustrated!!

[TheMase]

Possibly nothing!

Completely agree with all your comments. I think a couple of players need to be pulled into line, otherwise I still think we are a very realistic shot on top four. We have a 2 game worth lead on the position. If we were to win 4, the next lot still have to win 6 of 8 games to pass us.

[ash3]

Completely agree with all your comments. I think a couple of players need to be pulled into line, otherwise I still think we are a very realistic shot on top four. We have a 2 game worth lead on the position. If we were to win 4, the next lot still have to win 6 of 8 games to pass us.

Spot on. And I agree with the OP as well.

[Bob Neil]

I think last night meant we'll play a pretty good game against the Hawks. And many opinions will again be reversed, even if we don't win.

[goswannie14]

Possibly nothing!

It never ceases to amaze me the incredible fluctuations in this place. Over the past few weeks we've seen increasing views that we are flag material, regardless of who we have beaten, and nothing is allowed to be said against that without a barrage of "too negative" or "not a true supporter". Then just as quickly, we lose a game and there is a lot of gnashing of teeth and ripping of hair.

By itself I don't think last night's game means an awful lot. We have a couple of bogey teams under Roos and yet again one of them beat us.

Under Roos our record against Collingwood is 3-6 and two of those wins were by a goal or less against a Collingwood in the bottom four. Our other bogey team is Adelaide - 1-7 under Roos.

Despite having these bogey teams we have still managed to win a flag and make a second GF, so it doesn't necessarily mean a whole lot.

We played really really badly but each year we seem to pull out a few shockers. In 2005 we were ordinary to poor in at least half a dozen games. In 2006 we had disappointing losses to Coll, Adel and Geel in the second half of the season.

What's far more important is how we play in the remaining games. That the next two months is critical in the season hasn't changed from a couple of days ago. That we lost to Collingwood last night is not really a surprise to some.

We are still well placed to make the top four. I still think it unlikely we have the team yet (or any more) to progress far in finals this year, however if you get a good run you never know. Nevertheless, we will get a far better indication of what's in store for the team in Sept over the next two months than from last night.

I was expecting to lose last night, (which is not to say I was happy about it). Not only are Collingwood a bogey team to us, but we had just won 6 in a row. How many times have we won more than that in a row in Roos reign? I would think it probably hasn't happened.

[dendol]

whats worrying is that we have to play our two bogey teams in 2 of our remaining games. They will be 8 point games and, reasonably assuming we will lose both (last night proved we have not learnt a thing against the pies so we'll probably get done by the Crows), we will have to win all our games against Hawthorn, Geelong and Bulldogs to get 4th. All this assuming we win our "gimmes" against the Blues, Dockers and Lions.

Hope Im wrong, but last night's performance was so disturbing that I think it is more of a reflection of our true level compared to our 6 previous wins against teams in the bottom half of the ladder.

[swansrule100]

i think a lot it is people venting on here after last night.'

I do find it annoying how the media change their tune every week. Before the game on ten we were going to win, looked primed in great form a real threat and then after the game every outlet has us in trouble and perhaps unable to compete with the big teams.

Id like to see some consistency in their opinions, that goes for all sides. Give a team more than a week to rate them. Similar thing on here i guess.

I think as has been touched on, you get more of an idea what this week means in say 3-4 weeks. IF we lose them all you can look back on this game as perhaps one that broke the team. If we come out and thump the hawks next week and get back on a roll its a bit like the geelong loss to collingwood, a bit of a hump in the road.

If we play like last night though we will struggle to beat most teams. I think this team at its best can win the flag but it needs a lot of things going its way.

It is a lot better than last night suggests though.

[ScottH]

Who are you, and what have you done with NMWBloods???

Agree with what you said. Yep, one loss doesn't mean.
We haven't been playing great footy for a while, only better than our opponent, and last night our opponent managed to play better than us, which wasn't hard.
And at finals time, it is a brand new ball game.

[SimonH]

I think what it means if that if we can't beat the Woods in R21, we won't win the flag.

Not because we'll have to beat them in the finals (we probably won't meet them, and if we do, it will probably be because things are already going badly), and not because you have to beat your 'bogy team' to win the flag (you don't). I just think that with the way other results are likely to unfold, that'll be one loss too many for us to make top 4. And if you don't make the top 4, you can't win the flag.

While we have a still-decent gap on 5th right now, our tough upcoming run combined with the fact that 3 teams are chasing (and so odds are that one of them will hit a decent run of form) means that IMO we'll need wins in R21 and 22 (Brisbane @ home) to wrap it up.

For us to beat the Woods in Melbourne is going to be a very, very big ask. If the match was being played this week the bookies would have us at about $4. But on the other hand, the bookies would have us at worse than $4 to win the grannie, so in that sense, it's no biggie.

[snajik]

There's nothing to convince me yet that we are worthy of a top 4 spot. We've beaten no team currently in the eight with the exception of St Kilda who we played at the SCG when they had a number of players out. How we go over the next month or so is anyone's guess.

Hats off to Collingwood. The reason why we didn't play well is because they didn't allow us to play well. Their pressure was disciplined and constant. It resulted in frustration, errors, and turnovers for us and ultimately Collingwood goals. It irks me to say it but they were much smarter. Their inability to sustain their sliding flood for four quarters was probably what let us back into the game, albeit briefly. It was very similar to last year at Homebush. We desperately need a Plan B.

[swansrule100]

There's nothing to convince me yet that we are worthy of a top 4 spot. We've beaten no team currently in the eight with the exception of St Kilda who we played at the SCG when they had a number of players out. How we go over the next month or so is anyone's guess.

Hats off to Collingwood. The reason why we didn't play well is because they didn't allow us to play well. Their pressure was disciplined and constant. It resulted in frustration, errors, and turnovers for us and ultimately Collingwood goals. It irks me to say it but they were much smarter. Their inability to sustain their sliding flood for four quarters was probably what let us back into the game, albeit briefly. It was very similar to last year at Homebush. We desperately need a Plan B.

beat brisbane at the gabba