Ball magnets

[BSA5]

OK, I've done a bit of analysis on some statistics, and worked out which players are getting the ball the most WHILE ON THE GROUND. I've only included players that could be conceivably considered midfielders as at least a partial role (so I've included Bevan, Malceski, Mattner, Kennelly, Moore and O'Keefe, for example), and have played multiple games this year in the seniors. This is what I found:

In order from highest (possessions/percentage time on ground) x 100 (which is how many possessions a game a player would average if they played every minute of every game) to lowest:

Surprises:

Craig Bird. Fitness is clearly an issue for the 19 year old, but that's understandable at his age. This table shows that he has tremendous ball winning ability. When on the field, he finds the ball at the sixth highest rate of all Swans midfielders/midfield types (and he is within 0.3 of fourth). For a guy in his first year, that is top notch.
Luke Ablett: In the same boat as Bird. Clearly, can win plenty of the ball when on the ground, not something he is given credit for. He just isn't on the ground enough. Fitness again?
Amon Buchanan: See Bird and Ablett. Ball use is another issue as well though.
Tadgh Kennelly: People have been saying he's had an average year, and it isn't without some justification, but one thing you can't fault this year is his ball winning ability. I was very surprised.
Nick Malceski: See Kennelly.
Adam Goodes: Doesn't seem to be the ball magnet we all thought he was. Wins a few possessions, but spends a LOT of time on the ground. Not that that's a bad thing, it just goes to show how much he relies on his fitness (a perfectly legitimate quality) to play as well as he does.

Thoughts? Opinions? Personally, I think it's exciting that Bird is showing so much ball winning ability. Fitness can be developed relatively easily, but an instinct for finding the ball? Not so much.

It is also interesting to see just how much of a difference fitness makes to how much a player can effect a game. Look at Luke Ablett, for example. He could be a star if he was fitter.

[RogueSwan]

Sooo, Roos should be playing McVeigh for the whole game so he can get over 20 possessions???
Do you want to do it for last year for comparison BSA5? Go on, the people will love ya.

[tasswan]

No surprise ROK spends the most amount of time on the ground, hes a machine

[hot potato]

Well done BSA5, Goodes generally uses his possesions very well but has fallen off lately, maybe needs more bench time.

[NMWBloods]

Look at Luke Ablett, for example. He could be a star if he was fitter.

Quality of disposal would be a problem with that. Also, had more time for not many more possessions. He seems to have large periods during a game on the ground when he doesn't touch the ball.

[reigning premier]

I thought this was going to be a thread about ROK Lobster and his hands.... Very disappointed...

[stellation]

Thanks for bothering to put that together BSA5, I always find these sorts of thing very interesting to look at.

One thing to keep in mind is that you won't always get the same production when playing for maximum minutes, interestingly (at least I think it is!) the NBA used to provide "per 48 minutes" stats to show production if a player played all minutes, then after quite a bit of research went to "per 40 minutes" (whilst they still provide per 48 for reference) as they believed that was the maximum number of consistent minutes over a long period that could be played to get output at a sustained level. I think it'd be interesting to come up with a % of game time equivalent for sustained output in footy, the research papers when the NBA made the change made fascinating reading for stats nerds (I really should have forwarded them on to NMW at the time!).

[NMWBloods]

Yeah!!

[swansrule100]

id be interested to see other clubs stats as well

like what is ablett jnrs stat etc

We would be low on a team total in this area i would of thought, or would we be high because we share time more?

sometimes the stats are more exciting than the gameplan

[RogueSwan]

Thanks for bothering to put that together BSA5, I always find these sorts of thing very interesting to look at.

One thing to keep in mind is that you won't always get the same production when playing for maximum minutes, interestingly (at least I think it is!) the NBA used to provide "per 48 minutes" stats to show production if a player played all minutes, then after quite a bit of research went to "per 40 minutes" (whilst they still provide per 48 for reference) as they believed that was the maximum number of consistent minutes over a long period that could be played to get output at a sustained level. I think it'd be interesting to come up with a % of game time equivalent for sustained output in footy, the research papers when the NBA made the change made fascinating reading for stats nerds (I really should have forwarded them on to NMW at the time!).

unless you were Michael Jordan. IIRC he played nearly 100% of most matches, just like Irish before the injuries.

[stellation]

unless you were Michael Jordan. IIRC he played nearly 100% of most matches, just like Irish before the injuries.

Interestingly (okay I know it isn't!) Jordan was actually one of the players referenced in the research with the move from 48 to 40; everyone had the common feeling he was on court all game, but he averaged right around 40 mpg for his career.

[liz]

These stats are interesting but, as with any stat, they only give you a small piece of the picture.

For instance, Bird is clearly showing he knows how to win the ball. That shouldn't be a surprise given how he dominated in the middle at underage level. But direct comparisons with the likes of Goodes and O'Keefe are dangerous since those two get lots of attention from opposition stoppers, while at the moment Bird gets little attention.

Goodes' stats also need to be considered in the context of his spread from game to game. The gap between his best and worst ball-winning has been one of the biggest on the team this season. We've been bemoaning his few poor games when he got little of it and this gets lost by just looking at an average. This applies less to someone like O'Keefe because he's a little more consistent. I think his highest ball winning game this year has been just over 30 and his lowest around 15 or 16 but most of his games probably sit in the 19-23 ish range.

[RogueSwan]

Interestingly (okay I know it isn't!) Jordan was actually one of the players referenced in the research with the move from 48 to 40; everyone had the common feeling he was on court all game, but he averaged right around 40 mpg for his career.

Was it in the finals that he played more minutes then? They would have been the games I taped and watched over and over and over again.

[swansrule100]

Was it in the finals that he played more minutes then? They would have been the games I taped and watched over and over and over again.

38 roughly for regular season

41 for playoffs

[BSA5]

These stats are interesting but, as with any stat, they only give you a small piece of the picture.

For instance, Bird is clearly showing he knows how to win the ball. That shouldn't be a surprise given how he dominated in the middle at underage level. But direct comparisons with the likes of Goodes and O'Keefe are dangerous since those two get lots of attention from opposition stoppers, while at the moment Bird gets little attention.

Goodes' stats also need to be considered in the context of his spread from game to game. The gap between his best and worst ball-winning has been one of the biggest on the team this season. We've been bemoaning his few poor games when he got little of it and this gets lost by just looking at an average. This applies less to someone like O'Keefe because he's a little more consistent. I think his highest ball winning game this year has been just over 30 and his lowest around 15 or 16 but most of his games probably sit in the 19-23 ish range.

Of course. This is by no means the be all and end all of possession winning ability. Obviously you have to factor in things like being tagged, etc. Although by the same token, you can also factor in other jobs for players. Jack, Bevan, Ablett, and to a slightly lesser, but not insignificant extent, Bird, have all played defensive roles this year. McVeigh has a couple of times as well (think Dal Santo against the Saints at the SCG). Having to concentrate on an opponent heavily will distract a player from winning the ball himself. Which just goes to show how much of an absolute champion Kirk is. Our highest possession winner, with the highest rate of possessions won per time on ground, is also our primary tagger (Jack hasn't quite taken that position yet).

It also doesn't take into account the style of play. Jarrad McVeigh would probably be in our top 3 fittest players (alongside ROK and Goodes), and yet only plays around 85% of game time. Why? Because basically, he never stops running. Even Goodes and ROK spend time resting in the forward line. McVeigh only ever really rests on the bench, as he can't exactly plonk himself at the top of the square and try to pull in the contested marks. When he goes forward, he still has to work, so he rests on the bench. So simply using TOG% to compare fitness levels can be a bit misleading.

The average time spent on the ground is around about 82%. That's how it is when you have 22 players playing a game, but only 18 allowed on at any one time. It's actually 81.81818181 etc, but we'll round it to 82. So that's the average time as a percentage of the full game time an AFL player spends on the ground. Using that percentage, rather than 100% (which I just used because it was convenient), you could get an idea of how many disposals each player would collect if they were of a typical fitness level for all AFL players. If you do that, you get:

So if every player was just as fit, and was given equal time on the ground, our possession averages would look something like that.