What changes are needed to go from also rans to a contender?

[CureTheSane]

I honestly believe that Roos and the club are will to drop games in order to persist with our game plan.
The reason behind this is because it suits finals football.
Sure, teams will play differently against us and beat us, but come finals time we will have a solid plan and be able to control the game much more effectively.

I hope i'm right.

[NMWBloods]

There is a bit of an impression that we are a fabulous finals teams (I remember last year people here saying that the other teams should look out if we make finals) but I'm not really sure if that is the case.

Our record under Roos is 7-5, which is pretty good.
3-2 of that is against WC and our low-scoring style of game worked well against them because of their lack of forward line.
We have 1-0 against Port when their record was 1-5.
We have 1-0 against Geelong (only because of Davis).
We have 1-0 Fremantle whose record is 1-3.
We have 1-1 against StKilda, whose record was 2-2.
We have 0-1 against Brisbane.
We have 0-1 against Collingwood.


So it's decent, but I'm really not sure if we are a definite finals threat because of any game plan.

[SimonH]

There is a bit of an impression that we are a fabulous finals teams (I remember last year people here saying that the other teams should look out if we make finals) but I'm not really sure if that is the case.

Our record under Roos is 7-5, which is pretty good.
3-2 of that is against WC and our low-scoring style of game worked well against them because of their lack of forward line.
We have 1-0 against Port when their record was 1-5.
We have 1-0 against Geelong (only because of Davis).
We have 1-0 Fremantle whose record is 1-3.
We have 1-1 against StKilda, whose record was 2-2.
We have 0-1 against Brisbane.
We have 0-1 against Collingwood.


So it's decent, but I'm really not sure if we are a definite finals threat because of any game plan.

Maybe not, but if I recall correctly some stats you posted earlier, the above record is significantly better than our record against those same sides (i.e. then-top-8-teams) during the regular season. I think there's evidence that our gameplan will win more finals, relative to the number of regular season matches it wins. Of course, that doesn't answer whether we'll win enough matches either in the regular season or in the finals.

On the other side of the ledger, though, it's interesting that 3 of those 5 losses (all of the non-Weagles losses) were blowouts (by the Swans' tight standards), involving greater margins than we lose games by in the regular season. Not sure what that says.

[NMWBloods]

Maybe not, but if I recall correctly some stats you posted earlier, the above record is significantly better than our record against those same sides (i.e. then-top-8-teams) during the regular season.

Our record against top 8 sides has been relatively poor most years except 2005. However, I think we have been fortunate with some of our finals draws by opponent - we have played WC and not Adelaide for example (not to say WC in Perth is easy, but we matched up better against them than Adelaide). We were lucky to beat Geelong in '05 but we had beaten them during the year. We have a better finals game than StKilda, who are hopeless in finals, as are Fremantle.

I think there's evidence that our gameplan will win more finals, relative to the number of regular season matches it wins.

I'm really not sure if that is the case - I think a lot of it depends on who we play. More importantly perhaps is that the '05 and '06 teams were good in finals, and the '07 and '08 teams are only a shadow of those teams.

On the other side of the ledger, though, it's interesting that 3 of those 5 losses (all of the non-Weagles losses) were blowouts (by the Swans' tight standards), involving greater margins than we lose games by in the regular season. Not sure what that says.

Probably about 3 goals more, which is not surprising really as finals can often do that.

[Bas]

Yup, blame the defenders but praise a forward line that can kick only 10 goals

Dump the Swans Paul, take up politics!

[Bas]

I honestly believe that Roos and the club are will to drop games in order to persist with our game plan.
The reason behind this is because it suits finals football.
Sure, teams will play differently against us and beat us, but come finals time we will have a solid plan and be able to control the game much more effectively.

I hope i'm right.

That's assumimg we are still in the top eight come finals time.

I'm not so sure.

[Mike_B]

On the other side of the ledger, though, it's interesting that 3 of those 5 losses (all of the non-Weagles losses) were blowouts (by the Swans' tight standards), involving greater margins than we lose games by in the regular season. Not sure what that says.

Probably about 3 goals more, which is not surprising really as finals can often do that.

All elimination finals, where its common that when the game is clearly beyond reach, the winning team piles on the goals in the last quarter - we have seen this with us on both sides (St Kilda PF in 05).

[DST]

There is a bit of an impression that we are a fabulous finals teams (I remember last year people here saying that the other teams should look out if we make finals) but I'm not really sure if that is the case.

Our record under Roos is 7-5, which is pretty good.
3-2 of that is against WC and our low-scoring style of game worked well against them because of their lack of forward line.
We have 1-0 against Port when their record was 1-5.
We have 1-0 against Geelong (only because of Davis).
We have 1-0 Fremantle whose record is 1-3.
We have 1-1 against StKilda, whose record was 2-2.
We have 0-1 against Brisbane.
We have 0-1 against Collingwood.


So it's decent, but I'm really not sure if we are a definite finals threat because of any game plan.

We have won four of those finals away, which means it's very good.

Not too many teams can claim to have won that many away from home in the last 10 years.

DST

[NMWBloods]

We have won four of those finals away, which means it's very good.

Not too many teams can claim to have won that many away from home in the last 10 years.

But it still depends on the opponent and we haven't beaten anyone but WC away since '05, and we were a better side in finals in '05 and '06.

[Cosmic Wizard]

That's assumimg we are still in the top eight come finals time.

I'm not so sure.

True, our run home is mostly against top eight sides.

First two test against the Magies and Hawk show we are lacking.

Like last year, we can make the finals, but we are not by any means a GF contender.

[BeeEmmAre]

How quickly they turn.

[DST]

But it still depends on the opponent and we haven't beaten anyone but WC away since '05, and we were a better side in finals in '05 and '06.

Agree we were a better side back then no doubt, but we do have a recent history of winning finals away from home which is as good as anyone else over the last 10 years.

The 7 to 5 ratio just goes to show how bloody hard they are to win, let alone trying to do that over the course of a 5 year stint.

I thought a couple of weeks ago, we were on the cusp of one last real shake at a GF and maybe a win. That looks unlikely now, but I would still like us to see out the year to the best of our ability and see off a number of older players with a fitting finale by winning a final at home in the second week. If we don't progess past the PF, then by all means we turn over 6 or 7 older players and give the newbies a red hot go for next year.

DST

[Nico]

Bevan and Moore to centre bounces with instructions to be first to the ball. No defensive crap, win the clearances and give our forwards a chance of not being flooded and first use of the ball. Throw in forward pressure and game on.

[tasswan]

How quickly they turn.

Totally agree

[CureTheSane]

Having made the post I did, I have to say that I'd love to go and see my team play knowing that they would play exciting football.

You tend to know that when we watch the Swans play we're going to get the same thing week in week out.
Even when we're 100 points up, there's no flamboyancy, or trying anything different.

I'm not complaining, we won a flag playing like we do.
And you have to respect Roos for sticking to his guns, it sure as hell must be tempting to change things up when it looks like all hope is lost.
He brings results, but he creates a frustrating style of play - hence his ups and downs with supporters.

I'd tip that unless we finish in a semi or better, the game plan might just change a bit next year.