Prospects, sliding, salary cap space

[NMWBloods]

In a previous thread, I was talking about the 2007 season overall - we finished 7th and lost the first final comfortably. That's a meaningful slide. If we'd made the prelims, I wouldn't have said we'd started to slide from '06. As it happens the slide that is becoming more apparent this year began last year.

[barry]

I was talking about the season overall - we finished 7th and lost the first final comfortably. That's a meaningful slide. If we'd made the prelims, I wouldn't have said we'd started to slide from '06. As it happens the slide that is becoming more apparent this year began last year.

So if we finish 7th and lose the first final again, are we still sliding, or stagnating ?

[NMWBloods]

So if we finish 7th and lose the first final again, are we still sliding, or stagnating ?

It's pretty obvious from our standard of play for a lot of this year that we are continuing to slide. Even a single finals win seems unlikely to indicate a turnaround given the ageing of our list, and as I said that slide was inevitable, whether it was last year, this year or next year. A good finals performance might mean some promising signs for the future if the young players play well but too early to tell.

[barry]

It's pretty obvious from our standard of play for a lot of this year that we are continuing to slide.

A slide is a downwards movement. Some of our form has been bad, some good. We find ourselves in exactly the same predicament as last year, but with the benefit of a lot more youngsters playing.

Sure our form is ordinary at the moment, but it wasnt earlier in the year. Thats how come we only are 1 game off 4th spot.

Even a single finals win seems unlikely to indicate a turnaround given the ageing of our list, and as I said that slide was inevitable, whether it was last year, this year or next year. A good finals performance might mean some promising signs for the future if the young players play well but too early to tell.

If you finish 7th or 8th, a good finals performance is winning 1 final. At 7th or 8th you are playing away from home against a side sitting higher than you. You arent expected to win. A win is better than your position indicates.

1 finals win this year will put us well up on last year IMO. A loss puts us equal.

[NMWBloods]

Our performance against top 8 sides suggests we are currently on the way down. We have the benefit of youngsters but I don't think in the short term that will offset the decline of the older players.

[barry]

Our performance against top 8 sides suggests we are currently on the way down. We have the benefit of youngsters but I don't think in the short term that will offset the decline of the older players.

What do you propose we do with all this cap room thats free'd up when these oldies sign off ?

Sydney dont bottom out like other teams. Finishing 8th IS bottoming out for us.

[NMWBloods]

Depends how many go and I doubt we'll get massive cap relief next year. I have no real issue with us spending a couple of years outside finals to rebuild as I've said already.

[robbieando]

Our performance against top 8 sides suggests we are currently on the way down. We have the benefit of youngsters but I don't think in the short term that will offset the decline of the older players.

Agree 100%

We are on the way down and we don't need ladder positions to show us that. Yes we have exposed more young players to AFL Senior Football this year than we did did last year, but the older players are not the same players they once were and we don't have ready made replacement for those who play Key Position Roles.

Yes bottoming out for us doesn't mean we have to finish last for 3 season in a row and then build up for a Top 8 spot, we can dip for a season to around 12th and then rise again. We just need to move the main responabilty away from the senior players and onto the younger players in 2009 and get some young Key Position Players into the SCG so we can develop our squad for a solid future.

We are on the way down but that won't be for long and we should be back towards the top in no time at all.

[barry]

Depends how many go and I doubt we'll get massive cap relief next year. I have no real issue with us spending a couple of years outside finals to rebuild as I've said already.

It all depends on who goes this year and next, but we'll have massive amounts of cap room. If you just think of Davis, Matthews, Crouch and Everitt, there would be a minimum of $1m there, and no impact on the teams performance without them.
None of the players 27+ will be getting pay-rises, some approaching 30 will be start seeing their contracts "slide" down in scale. And the cap steadily increases over the years.

[NMWBloods]

Yes bottoming out for us doesn't mean we have to finish last for 3 season in a row and then build up for a Top 8 spot, we can dip for a season to around 12th and then rise again. We just need to move the main responabilty away from the senior players and onto the younger players in 2009 and get some young Key Position Players into the SCG so we can develop our squad for a solid future.

We are on the way down but that won't be for long and we should be back towards the top in no time at all.

Exactly right.

Given I've seen more Swans seasons finish outside finals than in finals, it's hardly the case that I want to see that despite the puerile protestations to the contrary.

[robbieando]

It all depends on who goes this year and next, but we'll have massive amounts of cap room.

If you just think of Davis, Matthews, Crouch and Everitt, there would be a minimum of $1m there, and no impact on the teams performance without them.

We use up all of our available cap as it is and if we get rid of Leo, Davis, Mathews, Crouch and Everitt we wouldn't be looking at a massive amount of cap space opening up on our Salary Cap.

As for no impact on the team performance, well as a group of 5 true but Leo and Everitt have to be replaced within the 22 by players without AFL games under their belt and to be honest if you think that won't have an effect of the teams performance then you are kidding yourself.

None of the players 27+ will be getting pay-rises, some approaching 30 will be start seeing their contracts "slide" down in scale. And the cap steadily increases over the years.

What about the players who played their first games this year? Wouldn't some of them be due new contracts? Wouldn't that eat into the "massive cap space"? True most of the 27+ players won't be getting pay-rises (unless of course they are out of contract and the club keeps them and does a Jude Bolton). Plus name the players who have contracts that "slide" down?

Yes the cap increases over the years and the clubs are aware of the increases years in advance and budget for them, we are no different.

What space we have left would be used to re-sign our younger players because we are the last club to go out and trade away our 1st Round Draft Pick this season and to be honest who could be get to this club via a trade that would improve us enough to make that worthwhile?

[robbieando]

Right this thread is back, minus the personal comments that were off topic. If everyone is happy can we please play nice and not attack the man but the ball.

[dimelb]

Perhaps the main problem I have with politicians is short term thinking. It might also be the main problem I have with our club officials. I hope they forget about the Sydney Market and plan for the medium and long term good of the club, which may mean dipping out for a couple of years while we rebuild.

[bandwagon]

We are on the way down and we don't need ladder positions to show us that. Yes we have exposed more young players to AFL Senior Football this year than we did did last year, but the older players are not the same players they once were and we don't have ready made replacement for those who play Key Position Roles.

Agree with all of this.

We have plenty of youngsters for which the jury is still out. If half of them come good (especially the KPPs) we should be on the rise in a year or two. Here's hoping.

[Mike_B]

Perhaps the main problem I have with politicians is short term thinking. It might also be the main problem I have with our club officials. I hope they forget about the Sydney Market and plan for the medium and long term good of the club, which may mean dipping out for a couple of years while we rebuild.

Couldn't agree more. Yes the club operates in a competitive market, but if they look at memberships compared to even 10 years ago, I dare say there is a much stronger core of support that will stand by the team no matter what. As for those who jump off/don't buy tickets for the odd match here and there, well every club, regardless of their location experiences the same thing.

So IMHO the club needs to forget this attitude of "we can't afford to miss finals" and set things in place for the next tilt at a flag, because with the current attitude, we'll continue to finish 7th/8th at best and bomb out unceremoniously in the first week of the finals if we actually make it...