Round 10 - Western Bulldogs

[connolly]

A good recent historical analysis.

It certainly was the case that in each of those 2008 three games, one single middle quarter, (whether it was the second or third), killed the Swans.

If Sydney does not repeat a one bad quarter scenerio, they are in with a chance. However, on the Bulldogs' form against Geelong, the Swans will have to play as good a game in Round 10, as the performance in Round 9 against Port Adelaide. Herein, my concern is that Sydney '09 is just not good enough a team to play two great games straight.

On a positive side, the last time the Swans faced a team that were magnificient in defeat against the Cats the week before, was Hawthorn in Round 2. (Remember that fantastic Round one Grand Final replay between the Hawks and Geelong, where Hawthorn almost won at the end, kicking 6 goals to 1 in the final quarter? ) I thought Sydney would have no chance the next week. The Swans proved me wrong.

1. The 2009 team is much fitter and fresher than the tired, sore outfit that was out run in the 08 semi.
2. Kennelly was our centre of gravity who provided not just run out of defence but direction. We now know that the Kerry recruit's heart was not at all in it last season as well as playing injured.
3. Our half back line will be quicker and fitter than the line in 08. This will make a difference in our run out of defence. It is critically important to one out the Dogs defenders on Big Beamish and Magic.
4. Our big advantage has to be ruck dominance and the ability of Goodsey to run off the back of the pack and under the Jolly palm. Can he do it against a quick tight tag? He'll be up against a very well informed and strategic Eade defensive plan. Eade knows more about Goodes than any other coach than Roos. Eade never really hit it off with Goodsey and believed he was a flawed player. In the 08 semi Goodes got 10 possessions. If Goodsey can out think the Eade plan, break the tag and run the ball into the corridor consistently - we win. We know he can do it as he carved them up in 2006.
5. If he can't our taggers (Kirk, Jude, Jack) will be under real pressure to smother their very quick midfield.
They beat us in all games last year because we couldn't stop their distribution out of the stoppages. Despite moneybag's confidence that we are quicker this year, if their very fast midfield runs onto the ball into open spaces in numbers - we lose.

[ugg]

Early odds

Bullies 1.55
Swans 2.45

[RaZoRBlad3]

Out of the 3 games last year, did we have both Hall and MickyO playing together in any of them? I seem to recall either one of them or both were missing in all 3 games. If that's the case, hopefully that'll be the difference.

[hammo]

I am concerned about the scheduling of this game. The Swans played on Sunday and have 6 days to prepare while the Dogs have 8 days having played on Friday night. That has to make a big difference particularly on a big ground such as Manuka.

[mcs]

Should be a cracking game and I'm a bit sad that I won't be there for what is always an enjoyable game at Manuka. Just got to watch the Port game and I was very impressed with what I saw.

Its going to be a tough one against the Dogs- I voted for them to win by 10-19, but moreso because whenever I vote for us to win we seem to lose, so hopefully my reverse pyschology will work for once!

We might be a fair way behind the top teams in Hawthorn and St Kilda, but I'm excited by a lot of what I have seen at times this year. We are rebuilding there is no doubt about that, but we are still a competitive outfit and its nice to see!

[top40]

Out of the 3 games last year, did we have both Hall and MickyO playing together in any of them? I seem to recall either one of them or both were missing in all 3 games. If that's the case, hopefully that'll be the difference.

The answer is that Hall and MickyO did not play together in any those three losses. Hall was out suspended in the first game, O'Loughlin was injured in the last two games.

However, they DID play together in five straight games against the Bullies from 2003 to 2007, whereupon the Swans won every game. The only time the Swans lost to the Bulldogs when Hall and MickyO played together was way back in Round 8 2002, ironically one of Rodney Ede's last coaching assignments for the Sydney.

[Wardy]

It will be close - but my heart says that should we hammer the Dogs, the Bombers lose against Geelong (more than likely), the Crows beat the Hawks (its possible) & Brisbane V North could go either way - there is a big possibility, if the planets are in line, that by Late Sunday night - the Swans may be third on the ladder! how good would that be?

[annew]

I am worried about this game too. I was at the game on Sunday and the Swans were fantastic, I actually couldn't believe my eyes in that first quarter - I was in shock! When I watched the replay it wasn't anywhere near as exciting and I began to think that we weren't that great after all and that Port were just dreadful. The difference between being at a live game and watching on TV is huge! Of course we do always seem to draw the most boring commentators, although Sunday's crew are better than Tim Lane & Co, which is not hard to achieve.
Bring on Saturday and let's hope last Sunday was not just a fluke.

[Go Swannies]

It will be close - but my heart says that should we hammer the Dogs, the Bombers lose against Geelong (more than likely), the Crows beat the Hawks (its possible) & Brisbane V North could go either way - there is a big possibility, if the planets are in line, that by Late Sunday night - the Swans may be third on the ladder! how good would that be?

Now that's nice thinking Wardy. Did you see Mike Sheahan asking if the others On the Couch had also thought the Swans would fail. His fallback position is that we won't do much in finals but you wouldn't want to face us. In March I put money with a friend that my Swannies would finish ahead of her Blues at the end of H&A. Everyone else jeered and said I should pay up pre-season. Looking a fair bet now.

I love supporting a team that always gives it a crack. Imagine following the Tigers or Freo. Even the Dees have more heart, just not more talent.

[giant]

They are also going to be without Gilbee and Higgins.

Gilbee playing according to this article:

http://www.realfooty.com.au/articles/2009/05/26/1243103542506.html

Which also includes the startling revelation that:

Gilbee reckons the former Swans - coach Rodney Eade, his assistant Paul Williams, runner John Stevens and matchday statistician Rowan Warfe - now at the Bulldogs can only be an advantage. "I have no doubt it would help," Gilbee said. "Rodney coached there for a while and Paul Williams played in a premiership there not so long ago, and we've got some other guys who have got some Sydney knowledge.

I thought Williams was at Melbourne? Must have moved last year - there's a real little Swans expat community in Melbourne between Dogs and Saints.

Given that they beat us convincly three times last year, I see this as a real litmus test of where we're at with our best team on the park and all in pretty good form. Let's do 'em!

[ScottH]

Gilbee playing according to this article:

http://www.realfooty.com.au/articles/2009/05/26/1243103542506.html

Which also includes the startling revelation that:



I thought Williams was at Melbourne? Must have moved last year - there's a real little Swans expat community in Melbourne between Dogs and Saints.

Given that they beat us convincly three times last year, I see this as a real litmus test of where we're at with our best team on the park and all in pretty good form. Let's do 'em!

Yep, Williams moved at the start of the year to the Dogs.
Dees have Scott West.

[waterfowl]

This Bulldogs game is one of the most even and exciting contests of the year - looking forward to it. If the Swans can maintain that run on style accompanied by solid tackling that they did on the weekend, we're in with a good chance. Swans by 11.

[AnnieH]

Gilbee playing according to this article:

http://www.realfooty.com.au/articles/2009/05/26/1243103542506.html

Which also includes the startling revelation that:



I thought Williams was at Melbourne? Must have moved last year - there's a real little Swans expat community in Melbourne between Dogs and Saints.

Given that they beat us convincly three times last year, I see this as a real litmus test of where we're at with our best team on the park and all in pretty good form. Let's do 'em!

I think they've been too long out to do any "insider-type" damage ... ala Lyons.

[DeadlyAkkuret]

I think they've been too long out to do any "insider-type" damage ... ala Lyons.

Exactly. What's Warfe going to tell 'em? How to negate Peter Filandia?

[Bear]

"Rowan Warfe - now at the Bulldogs can only be an advantage"

Lol. Rowan Warfe. Lol.