The Value of a Draft Pick

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  • Bloody Hell
    Senior Player
    • Oct 2006
    • 3085

    The Value of a Draft Pick

    Was looking at this article
    No hard feelings for Ball - AFL.com.au
    regarding Luke Ball.

    Luke Ball was a Number 2 draft pick who made it. He was Captain of his club, well respected in the league, seems to have no social problems or downside. After 8 years of development - making the potenial seen in him as a No. 2 pick into reality his value drops to Pick 30 (some might say inflated due to Collingwoods shananegans).

    Luke Ball is 25 years old and has probably 5-7 years of good football in front of him. Can anyone explain this?

    Got me thinking about the recent Jolly excapade.

    We took Jolly as a relatively unproven entity at 16 sold him at a bargin for 14 after proving his worth - Under his real value. So with 14 we picked up Jetta. If we had pick 8 would we have still picked Jetta? Is Jetta worth Jolly?

    To me it seems that the proven player should be much, much more valuable - but the market indicates the opposite.
    25
    One in the hand is worth two in the bush.
    0%
    4
    Two in the hand is worth one in the bush.
    0%
    1
    You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink.
    0%
    5
    A man has no ears for that to which experience has given him no access.
    0%
    1
    Just look at ROK - I mean really look at him.
    0%
    14
    The eternal connundrum "what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object" was finally solved when David Hasselhoff punched himself in the face.
  • satchmopugdog
    Bandicoots ears
    • Apr 2004
    • 3691

    #2
    You are thinking far too deeply about it...




    I went for the ROK option...so glad to see it back.
    "The Dog days are over, The Dog days are gone" Florence and the Machine

    Comment

    • Lucky Knickers
      Fandom of Fabulousness
      • Oct 2003
      • 4220

      #3
      I'm with Satchmo - good to see the ROK option resurrected.

      Comment

      • Bloody Hell
        Senior Player
        • Oct 2006
        • 3085

        #4
        A man has no ears for that to which experience has given him no access.

        I like this one - had to read it 10 times before it made any sense. It's from Nietzsche...there's a guy who thinks too much!
        The eternal connundrum "what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object" was finally solved when David Hasselhoff punched himself in the face.

        Comment

        • Primmy
          Proud Tragic Swan
          • Apr 2008
          • 5970

          #5
          I ran with the ROK. I used to watch him during ressie matches. Used to call him the blond brick with legs. I didn't particularly rate him as a player but was impressed by the fact that his concentration never wavered. No matter where the ball was, he knew exactly where it was. None of this walking back and forth examining the ground for worm holes. He would have his head up and he watched every moment of where and when. Rated him then, rate him now. I had a great deal of satisfaction when he got his first seniors gig. "Toldyers" and all that.
          If you've never jumped from one couch to the other to save yourself from lava then you didn't have a childhood

          Comment

          • BRISWAN
            Warming the Bench
            • Aug 2005
            • 304

            #6
            Bloody Hell,

            Totally agree with what you are saying.

            Ball at #30 seems a complete bargain.

            High draft picks punted on up and comers is always a gamble just look at
            Dan O'Keefe for example.

            A guy of Ball's class with 5-7seasons in him would be the tonic to build a team around.

            The only problem for the Saints was that they were lucky enough to have 4+ quality mids that filled a sim role.

            It annoys me that the Pies have staged a double coup this year (with Jolly)
            Unfortunately, I think this will come back to bite us all hard.

            I still don't understand how Jolly is released for pick #14 - it's a strange game sometimes!!!!!

            Comment

            • stellation
              scott names the planets
              • Sep 2003
              • 9720

              #7
              Seeing St Kilda get nothing for Ball has made me feel a lot better about getting #14 for Jolly.
              I knew him as a gentle young man, I cannot say for sure the reasons for his decline
              We watched him fade before our very eyes, and years before his time

              Comment

              • Jewels
                On the Rookie List
                • Oct 2006
                • 3258

                #8
                Originally posted by stellation
                Seeing St Kilda get nothing for Ball has made me feel a lot better about getting #14 for Jolly.
                I'm with you there.

                Comment

                • caj23
                  Senior Player
                  • Aug 2003
                  • 2462

                  #9
                  Had we not wished to get other trades over the line, I'm pretty confident we would have held fast and squeezed more out of the Pies for DJ.

                  In hindsight though it worked out fine for us as we landed McGlynn and Kennedy cheaply and got 2 solid ruck replacements for DJ

                  Comment

                  • UglyDuckling
                    On the Rookie List
                    • Aug 2008
                    • 452

                    #10
                    The AFL has a yoof obsession. if you are 18 you have unlimited potential and are worth a high draft pick but if your 25 people know what you can do and you become undervalued. Thats one of the reasons the swans have been successful because we have invested in the trade period with players who have proven they can play.

                    Comment

                    • BeeEmmAre
                      Commentary Team Captain
                      • Aug 2005
                      • 2509

                      #11
                      I took the ROK option because none of the others made any sense to me
                      "It's up to the rest of the players in the room to make a new batch of premiership players next year," Adam Goodes, triple Bob Skilton Medallist, October 7, 2011.

                      YOU BETCHA!!!!!!

                      Comment

                      • Bas
                        Veterans List
                        • Jan 2003
                        • 4457

                        #12
                        I took the no ears option. You can't wear glasses either.

                        Collingwood gave up pick 14 for Jolly and pick 30 for Ball. Can these two get them a premiership? only time will tell. We had Plugger and Roos and still couldn't snare one.

                        I think you pick what you team needs most. It's all relative plus alot of luck with injuries.
                        In memory of my little Staffy - Dicey, 17.06.2005 to 1.12.2011- I'll miss you mate.

                        Comment

                        • AnnieH
                          RWOs Black Sheep
                          • Aug 2006
                          • 11332

                          #13
                          Duck butt!!

                          He's back.

                          Yay.
                          Wild speculation, unsubstantiated rumours, silly jokes and opposition delight in another's failures is what makes an internet forum fun.
                          Blessed are the cracked for they are the ones who let in the light.

                          Comment

                          • giant
                            Veterans List
                            • Mar 2005
                            • 4731

                            #14
                            Originally posted by BeeEmmAre
                            I took the ROK option because none of the others made any sense to me
                            You're not actually legally bound to vote in these polls you know?

                            Comment

                            • JUDO
                              Duck Hunter
                              • Apr 2008
                              • 82

                              #15
                              A first round draft pick gets a wage of about $60000 plus match payments,minimum 2 year contract.
                              Luke ball was asking for $500000 a year, minimum 2 year contract. Once a player puts a price on his head it must be paid.
                              Western Bulldogs pick 15, Port pick 9-10-16, Geelong 17, Brisbane 27, Adelaide 13-29, Sydney 6-14 all could have taken him if they either had room in there salery cap. Sydney probably had the room but would'nt pay that much.

                              Comment

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