Key games ahead

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  • top40
    Regular in the Side
    • May 2007
    • 933

    Key games ahead

    I am predicting that there is four key games ahead for the Swans in 2010 that will determine their September:

    Round 12 Port Adelaide (Away)
    Round 16 Carlton (Away)
    Round 21 Western Bulldogs (Home)
    Round 22 Brisbane (Away)

    These are all games where the Swans would be slight underdogs, say between $2.20 to $2.75

    I have written off the games against Round 13/Collingwood (Home), Round 18/Geelong(Home), and Round 20/Fremantle(Away)

    On the other hand, I am quietly optimistic about Round 14/ Richmond (Away), Round 15/ North Melbourne (Home),Round 17/Melbourne (Away), and Round 19/Hawthorn (Home).

    If I am right about my predictions other than for the key games, the Swans have a guarantee of 10 wins (with 8 losses). The key 4 games referred to above will give the Swans either at worst 10 wins, (and a failure to make the finals), to up to 14 wins, (and a likely top 4 position).
  • RogueSwan
    McVeigh for Brownlow
    • Apr 2003
    • 4602

    #2
    Originally posted by top40
    ...
    Round 12 Port Adelaide (Away)
    ...
    Agreed we seen as slight underdogs for this game, but we haven't lost to the Powah for years, I think you have to go back to early 2006 (actually rnd 2 2006) for our last loss. This should be a win as we haven't lost to the Power in Adelaide since 2004.
    2009 rnd 9 SCG win 123-68
    2008 rnd 9 AAMI win 105-94
    2008 rnd 2 SCG win 146-78
    2007 rnd 8 SCG win 118-87
    2006 rnd 17 AAMI win 77-50
    2006 rnd 2 SCG loss 80-106
    2005 rnd 8 SCG win 69-45
    2004 rnd 12 AAMI loss 60-132
    2003 QF AAMI WIN 100-88

    We have lost to the Power in Adelaide since 2004, just ignore the fact we have only played there three times over that period.
    All in all a pretty good record.
    "Fortunately, this is the internet, so knowing nothing is no obstacle to having an opinion!." Beerman 18-07-2017

    Comment

    • Danzar
      I'm doing ok right now, thanks
      • Jun 2006
      • 2027

      #3
      Originally posted by top40
      I have written off the games against Round 13/Collingwood (Home), Round 18/Geelong(Home), and Round 20/Fremantle(Away)
      Overall, sound, but are you basing the above on current team/form or what the likely team structure will be come round 18-20? I think by round 18, given the bye, we should be nearly back to full strength and hopefully will field a similar side to the one that gave us such a good start to the season. By round 20, said side should go up against Freo with a bit of momentum.

      I'm not disagreeing with you completely, I'm just not sure abot writing the Freo game off.
      Captain, I am detecting large quantities of win in this sector

      Comment

      • Kanga
        On the Rookie List
        • Aug 2007
        • 274

        #4
        Originally posted by top40
        I am predicting that there is four key games ahead for the Swans in 2010 that will determine their September:

        Round 12 Port Adelaide (Away)
        Round 16 Carlton (Away)
        Round 21 Western Bulldogs (Home)
        Round 22 Brisbane (Away)

        These are all games where the Swans would be slight underdogs, say between $2.20 to $2.75

        I have written off the games against Round 13/Collingwood (Home), Round 18/Geelong(Home), and Round 20/Fremantle(Away)

        On the other hand, I am quietly optimistic about Round 14/ Richmond (Away), Round 15/ North Melbourne (Home),Round 17/Melbourne (Away), and Round 19/Hawthorn (Home).

        If I am right about my predictions other than for the key games, the Swans have a guarantee of 10 wins (with 8 losses). The key 4 games referred to above will give the Swans either at worst 10 wins, (and a failure to make the finals), to up to 14 wins, (and a likely top 4 position).
        Its a good draw to make the 8 at the end. Congrats.

        Comment

        • top40
          Regular in the Side
          • May 2007
          • 933

          #5
          Originally posted by Danzar
          Overall, sound, but are you basing the above on current team/form or what the likely team structure will be come round 18-20? I think by round 18, given the bye, we should be nearly back to full strength and hopefully will field a similar side to the one that gave us such a good start to the season. By round 20, said side should go up against Freo with a bit of momentum.

          I'm not disagreeing with you completely, I'm just not sure abot writing the Freo game off.
          Can't see the Swans beating the Dockers in Perth, even with a full strength team. And even our 2005 Premiership team wouldn't beat either the present Collingwood or Geelong no matter where they play.

          My predictions were based on the team right now. Bear in mind that with the inclusion of a say a Bradshaw, a C.Bolton, a Seaby, there is bound to be another player or three in the present side injuried. That said, I do agree however that the Swans have a poor injury list, missing:

          1. Seaby- Number one ruckman, (at least until Mumford's performance against the Bombers)
          2. C.Bolton- Number one Defender.
          3. McGynn- Best small forward.
          4. Bradshaw- Best goal kicker
          4. Kennelly- Very experienced and proven running defender.

          Comment

          • laughingnome
            Amateur Statsman
            • Jul 2006
            • 1624

            #6
            Originally posted by top40
            If I am right about my predictions other than for the key games, the Swans have a guarantee of 10 wins (with 8 losses). The key 4 games referred to above will give the Swans either at worst 10 wins, (and a failure to make the finals), to up to 14 wins, (and a likely top 4 position).
            Judging by the Ladder after 11 rounds, it looks as though Mediocre will again be good enough for the 8. Eigth will probably find themselves on 10 wins and percentage after Round 22.
            10100111001 ;-)

            Comment

            • Bas
              Veterans List
              • Jan 2003
              • 4457

              #7
              Originally posted by top40
              Can't see the Swans beating the Dockers in Perth, even with a full strength team. And even our 2005 Premiership team wouldn't beat either the present Collingwood or Geelong no matter where they play.

              My predictions were based on the team right now. Bear in mind that with the inclusion of a say a Bradshaw, a C.Bolton, a Seaby, there is bound to be another player or three in the present side injuried. That said, I do agree however that the Swans have a poor injury list, missing:

              1. Seaby- Number one ruckman, (at least until Mumford's performance against the Bombers)
              2. C.Bolton- Number one Defender.
              3. McGynn- Best small forward.
              4. Bradshaw- Best goal kicker
              4. Kennelly- Very experienced and proven running defender.
              You forgot Barlow and Richards.
              In memory of my little Staffy - Dicey, 17.06.2005 to 1.12.2011- I'll miss you mate.

              Comment

              • top40
                Regular in the Side
                • May 2007
                • 933

                #8
                Originally posted by Bas
                You forgot Barlow and Richards.
                I've got some money on Cheese for the Brownlow.

                Comment

                • aardvark
                  Veterans List
                  • Mar 2010
                  • 5685

                  #9
                  Originally posted by top40
                  I've got some money on Cheese for the Brownlow.
                  I'm happy to take any bets on Ed Barlow for the brownlow. Name your own odds.

                  Comment

                  • Big Al
                    Veterans List
                    • Feb 2005
                    • 7007

                    #10
                    Key games ahead

                    Originally posted by top40
                    I've got some money on Cheese for the Brownlow.
                    Hi Top40
                    I have this friend in Nigeria who needs some financial assistance. Can you help.
                    ..And the Swans are the Premiers...The Ultimate Team...The Ultimate Warriors. They have overcome the highly fancied Hawks in brilliant style. Sydney the 2012 Premiers - Gerard Whately ABC

                    Here it is Again! - Huddo SEN

                    Comment

                    • msb
                      On the Rookie List
                      • Mar 2006
                      • 827

                      #11
                      Originally posted by RogueSwan
                      Agreed we seen as slight underdogs for this game, but we haven't lost to the Powah for years, I think you have to go back to early 2006 (actually rnd 2 2006) for our last loss. This should be a win as we haven't lost to the Power in Adelaide since 2004.
                      2009 rnd 9 SCG win 123-68
                      2008 rnd 9 AAMI win 105-94
                      2008 rnd 2 SCG win 146-78
                      2007 rnd 8 SCG win 118-87
                      2006 rnd 17 AAMI win 77-50
                      2006 rnd 2 SCG loss 80-106
                      2005 rnd 8 SCG win 69-45
                      2004 rnd 12 AAMI loss 60-132
                      2003 QF AAMI WIN 100-88

                      We have lost to the Power in Adelaide since 2004, just ignore the fact we have only played there three times over that period.
                      All in all a pretty good record.
                      Big deal, means nothing to determine the result of this weekend! Us beating the crows earlier in the year proved that fact

                      Comment

                      • SwansFan1972
                        On the Rookie List
                        • Nov 2008
                        • 621

                        #12
                        Originally posted by laughingnome
                        Judging by the Ladder after 11 rounds, it looks as though Mediocre will again be good enough for the 8. Eigth will probably find themselves on 10 wins and percentage after Round 22.
                        Yep. Being simplistic (which I like, cause it's easy) double the wins/losses for eighth spot now and you have a 10-12 split getting in. In a season where all teams apart from the cats have been yo-yoing, yesterday's win was huge for us. Who knows what form sides we meet in rnds 19-22 will be in then, the uncertainty of it all sure makes for an interesting and open season. Even cats are starting to pick up some injuries, of course they will cover them better than most, but mojo is fragile and can move on quickly!

                        Comment

                        • RogueSwan
                          McVeigh for Brownlow
                          • Apr 2003
                          • 4602

                          #13
                          Originally posted by msb
                          Big deal, means nothing to determine the result of this weekend! Us beating the crows earlier in the year proved that fact
                          I realise it means little to nothing this weekend, I just wanted to point out what a good recent record we have against the power.
                          Do you think our losing record to the Wobbles is nothing?
                          "Fortunately, this is the internet, so knowing nothing is no obstacle to having an opinion!." Beerman 18-07-2017

                          Comment

                          • msb
                            On the Rookie List
                            • Mar 2006
                            • 827

                            #14
                            Originally posted by RogueSwan
                            I realise it means little to nothing this weekend, I just wanted to point out what a good recent record we have against the power.
                            Do you think our losing record to the Wobbles is nothing?
                            Not at all, but it will not determine whether we can beat them in a few weeks time. Records are there to be broken, as we did against the crows, its all in the past these results and records against other teams.

                            Comment

                            • dimelb
                              pr. dim-melb; m not f
                              • Jun 2003
                              • 6889

                              #15
                              Originally posted by msb
                              Not at all, but it will not determine whether we can beat them in a few weeks time. Records are there to be broken, as we did against the crows, its all in the past these results and records against other teams.
                              History is bunk; form and fitness are everything?
                              He reminds him of the guys, close-set, slow, and never rattled, who were play-makers on the team. (John Updike, seeing Josh Kennedy in a crystal ball)

                              Comment

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