Key games ahead

[top40]

I am predicting that there is four key games ahead for the Swans in 2010 that will determine their September:

Round 12 Port Adelaide (Away)
Round 16 Carlton (Away)
Round 21 Western Bulldogs (Home)
Round 22 Brisbane (Away)

These are all games where the Swans would be slight underdogs, say between $2.20 to $2.75

I have written off the games against Round 13/Collingwood (Home), Round 18/Geelong(Home), and Round 20/Fremantle(Away)

On the other hand, I am quietly optimistic about Round 14/ Richmond (Away), Round 15/ North Melbourne (Home),Round 17/Melbourne (Away), and Round 19/Hawthorn (Home).

If I am right about my predictions other than for the key games, the Swans have a guarantee of 10 wins (with 8 losses). The key 4 games referred to above will give the Swans either at worst 10 wins, (and a failure to make the finals), to up to 14 wins, (and a likely top 4 position).

[RogueSwan]

...
Round 12 Port Adelaide (Away)
...

Agreed we seen as slight underdogs for this game, but we haven't lost to the Powah for years, I think you have to go back to early 2006 (actually rnd 2 2006) for our last loss. This should be a win as we haven't lost to the Power in Adelaide since 2004.
2009 rnd 9 SCG win 123-68
2008 rnd 9 AAMI win 105-94
2008 rnd 2 SCG win 146-78
2007 rnd 8 SCG win 118-87
2006 rnd 17 AAMI win 77-50
2006 rnd 2 SCG loss 80-106
2005 rnd 8 SCG win 69-45
2004 rnd 12 AAMI loss 60-132
2003 QF AAMI WIN 100-88

We have lost to the Power in Adelaide since 2004, just ignore the fact we have only played there three times over that period.
All in all a pretty good record.

[Danzar]

I have written off the games against Round 13/Collingwood (Home), Round 18/Geelong(Home), and Round 20/Fremantle(Away)

Overall, sound, but are you basing the above on current team/form or what the likely team structure will be come round 18-20? I think by round 18, given the bye, we should be nearly back to full strength and hopefully will field a similar side to the one that gave us such a good start to the season. By round 20, said side should go up against Freo with a bit of momentum.

I'm not disagreeing with you completely, I'm just not sure abot writing the Freo game off.

[Kanga]

I am predicting that there is four key games ahead for the Swans in 2010 that will determine their September:

Round 12 Port Adelaide (Away)
Round 16 Carlton (Away)
Round 21 Western Bulldogs (Home)
Round 22 Brisbane (Away)

These are all games where the Swans would be slight underdogs, say between $2.20 to $2.75

I have written off the games against Round 13/Collingwood (Home), Round 18/Geelong(Home), and Round 20/Fremantle(Away)

On the other hand, I am quietly optimistic about Round 14/ Richmond (Away), Round 15/ North Melbourne (Home),Round 17/Melbourne (Away), and Round 19/Hawthorn (Home).

If I am right about my predictions other than for the key games, the Swans have a guarantee of 10 wins (with 8 losses). The key 4 games referred to above will give the Swans either at worst 10 wins, (and a failure to make the finals), to up to 14 wins, (and a likely top 4 position).

Its a good draw to make the 8 at the end. Congrats.

[top40]

Overall, sound, but are you basing the above on current team/form or what the likely team structure will be come round 18-20? I think by round 18, given the bye, we should be nearly back to full strength and hopefully will field a similar side to the one that gave us such a good start to the season. By round 20, said side should go up against Freo with a bit of momentum.

I'm not disagreeing with you completely, I'm just not sure abot writing the Freo game off.

Can't see the Swans beating the Dockers in Perth, even with a full strength team. And even our 2005 Premiership team wouldn't beat either the present Collingwood or Geelong no matter where they play.

My predictions were based on the team right now. Bear in mind that with the inclusion of a say a Bradshaw, a C.Bolton, a Seaby, there is bound to be another player or three in the present side injuried. That said, I do agree however that the Swans have a poor injury list, missing:

1. Seaby- Number one ruckman, (at least until Mumford's performance against the Bombers)
2. C.Bolton- Number one Defender.
3. McGynn- Best small forward.
4. Bradshaw- Best goal kicker
4. Kennelly- Very experienced and proven running defender.

[laughingnome]

If I am right about my predictions other than for the key games, the Swans have a guarantee of 10 wins (with 8 losses). The key 4 games referred to above will give the Swans either at worst 10 wins, (and a failure to make the finals), to up to 14 wins, (and a likely top 4 position).

Judging by the Ladder after 11 rounds, it looks as though Mediocre will again be good enough for the 8. Eigth will probably find themselves on 10 wins and percentage after Round 22.

[Bas]

Can't see the Swans beating the Dockers in Perth, even with a full strength team. And even our 2005 Premiership team wouldn't beat either the present Collingwood or Geelong no matter where they play.

My predictions were based on the team right now. Bear in mind that with the inclusion of a say a Bradshaw, a C.Bolton, a Seaby, there is bound to be another player or three in the present side injuried. That said, I do agree however that the Swans have a poor injury list, missing:

1. Seaby- Number one ruckman, (at least until Mumford's performance against the Bombers)
2. C.Bolton- Number one Defender.
3. McGynn- Best small forward.
4. Bradshaw- Best goal kicker
4. Kennelly- Very experienced and proven running defender.

You forgot Barlow and Richards.

[top40]

You forgot Barlow and Richards.

I've got some money on Cheese for the Brownlow.

[aardvark]

I've got some money on Cheese for the Brownlow.

I'm happy to take any bets on Ed Barlow for the brownlow. Name your own odds.

[Big Al]

Key games ahead

I've got some money on Cheese for the Brownlow.

Hi Top40
I have this friend in Nigeria who needs some financial assistance. Can you help.

[msb]

Agreed we seen as slight underdogs for this game, but we haven't lost to the Powah for years, I think you have to go back to early 2006 (actually rnd 2 2006) for our last loss. This should be a win as we haven't lost to the Power in Adelaide since 2004.
2009 rnd 9 SCG win 123-68
2008 rnd 9 AAMI win 105-94
2008 rnd 2 SCG win 146-78
2007 rnd 8 SCG win 118-87
2006 rnd 17 AAMI win 77-50
2006 rnd 2 SCG loss 80-106
2005 rnd 8 SCG win 69-45
2004 rnd 12 AAMI loss 60-132
2003 QF AAMI WIN 100-88

We have lost to the Power in Adelaide since 2004, just ignore the fact we have only played there three times over that period.
All in all a pretty good record.

Big deal, means nothing to determine the result of this weekend! Us beating the crows earlier in the year proved that fact

[SwansFan1972]

Judging by the Ladder after 11 rounds, it looks as though Mediocre will again be good enough for the 8. Eigth will probably find themselves on 10 wins and percentage after Round 22.

Yep. Being simplistic (which I like, cause it's easy) double the wins/losses for eighth spot now and you have a 10-12 split getting in. In a season where all teams apart from the cats have been yo-yoing, yesterday's win was huge for us. Who knows what form sides we meet in rnds 19-22 will be in then, the uncertainty of it all sure makes for an interesting and open season. Even cats are starting to pick up some injuries, of course they will cover them better than most, but mojo is fragile and can move on quickly!

[RogueSwan]

Big deal, means nothing to determine the result of this weekend! Us beating the crows earlier in the year proved that fact

I realise it means little to nothing this weekend, I just wanted to point out what a good recent record we have against the power.
Do you think our losing record to the Wobbles is nothing?

[msb]

I realise it means little to nothing this weekend, I just wanted to point out what a good recent record we have against the power.
Do you think our losing record to the Wobbles is nothing?

Not at all, but it will not determine whether we can beat them in a few weeks time. Records are there to be broken, as we did against the crows, its all in the past these results and records against other teams.

[dimelb]

Not at all, but it will not determine whether we can beat them in a few weeks time. Records are there to be broken, as we did against the crows, its all in the past these results and records against other teams.

History is bunk; form and fitness are everything?