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  • Go Swannies
    Veterans List
    • Sep 2003
    • 5698
    #1

    The Run Home

    I've been away for over a month and it was a good time to be away. Back to watch the Port game on TV after weeks of frustration at how we were playing vs Cats, Dogs, Freo etc while listening to the radio through afl.com.au.

    It seems like having a few of the injured back has made a big difference. Hopefully we'll have Braddy back for the Pies and for the rest of the season. Anything can happen. But it's a challenging run home:

    R13 Pies, home - would love to win but it'd be a pleasant surprise. Are we better than the Dees?

    R14 Tigers, away - should win. But Tigers are playing some good games.

    R15 North, home - should win. But see above.

    R16 Blues, away - we will be underdogs but may determine who ends ahead of the other at end of season.

    R17 Dees, away - see R14 & 15

    R18 Cats, home - see R13 but without the Dees to show us the way.

    R19 Hawks, home - if we win the ones we should then this should be a ripper. It'd be good to put the Hawks back in their box as we should have three weeks ago.

    R20 Freo, away. I won't be booking a ticket to Subi but I hope that's a mistake.

    R21 Dogs, home - again, if we do finish strongly, this may determine if we are Top 4. How nice would it be if we were Top 4 and Baz's Doggies weren't?

    R22 Lions, away. They can't still be playing so badly 10 weeks from now, could they?
    Tags: run, Swans, sydney
    • ScottH
      It's Goodes to cheer!!
      • Sep 2003
      • 23665
      #2
      Not very optimistic there GS.
      I guess we're not taking it one week at a time now??

        Comment

        • Go Swannies
          Veterans List
          • Sep 2003
          • 5698
          #3
          Originally posted by ScottH
          Not very optimistic there GS.
          I guess we're not taking it one week at a time now??
          On current form, the Cats will be playing in the GF. It's just a matter of who faces them. Why not us?

          I thought I was being optimistic. There are only three games I'm not holding out much hope for a win. If we don't let teams like the Dees and the Tiges surprise us, I'd take 7 wins out of the last 10 games as a good result!

            Comment

            • liz
              Veteran
              Site Admin
              • Jan 2003
              • 16844
              #4
              I think we'll lose 'em all...

                Comment

                • Nich
                  Senior Player
                  • May 2010
                  • 1291
                  #5
                  It looks quite daunting actually

                  Our last 2 wins were against ordinary teams and mostly all our early wins were against ordinary teams. I'd love to be more optimistic but gee, this is going to be tough. Many winnable games but no real certainties there.

                  I'll be happy to make the 8. Anything else is a bonus for me!! As long as the boys give it a massive crack I'll be rapt.

                    Comment

                    • laughingnome
                      Amateur Statsman
                      • Jul 2006
                      • 1624
                      #6
                      Originally posted by Go Swannies
                      If we don't let teams like the Dees and the Tiges surprise us, I'd take 7 wins out of the last 10 games as a good result!
                      So would I. I ran through the Ladder Predictor on AFL.com, trying to guess who would win week to week. I had Sydney to go 5-5 from the last 10, which was enough for 6th. 7 wins would be marvelous.
                      Last edited by laughingnome; 15 June 2010, 10:58 PM.
                      10100111001 ;-)

                        Comment

                        • chalbilto
                          Senior Player
                          • Oct 2007
                          • 1139
                          #7
                          Originally posted by liz
                          I think we'll lose 'em all...
                          I have always respected your thoughtful opinions but I am rather surprised by your statement. Most unsual and I respectfully hope you are wrong in this assessment.

                            Comment

                            • dimelb
                              pr. dim-melb; m not f
                              • Jun 2003
                              • 6889
                              #8
                              Originally posted by chalbilto
                              I have always respected your thoughtful opinions but I am rather surprised by your statement. Most unsual and I respectfully hope you are wrong in this assessment.
                              ... or have got on the board after getting on the turps ...
                              He reminds him of the guys, close-set, slow, and never rattled, who were play-makers on the team. (John Updike, seeing Josh Kennedy in a crystal ball)

                                Comment

                                • DeadlyAkkuret
                                  Veterans List
                                  • Oct 2006
                                  • 4547
                                  #9
                                  This is how I see it

                                  Collingwood (ANZ) 40/60 I'm probably being generous, our record against the Pies speaks for itself.

                                  Richmond (MCG) 80/20 The Tigers wont do to us what they did to West Coast.

                                  North Melbourne (SCG) 60/40 I would have said 70/30 but the Roos have looked good over the last month or so, putting in some big efforts against the Lions and Blues. If we're serious, we'll still beat them quite easily.

                                  Carlton (Etihad) 40/60 Assuming we win the two games prior to this one and we're still in the race, this game is absolutely huge. While I'd definitely have Carlton as favourites, in my opinion we're more talented than they are and this will be an "us or them" encounter.

                                  Melbourne (MCG) 60/40 Despite how promising some of the young Dees are we still should go into this game as favourites and should account for this inexperienced side. There's not much more to say, it's a must win.

                                  Geelong (ANZ) 40/60 We ran this side so close last season and many have argued that we're better this time around. Players like Goodes, Bolton, O'Keefe and McVeigh will need huge games for us to win this, none of the experienced guys can afford to be passengers.

                                  Hawthorn (SCG) 60/40 Much like the Carlton match this encounter will go a long way to deciding just how good we are. Again, let's assume we've won all the games we should to this point and Hawthorn are in good form, then whoever wins this will probably knock the other side out of finals calculations.

                                  Fremantle (Subiaco) 30/70 God help us, just pray that Fremantle of about 2 years ago shows up to this one.

                                  Bulldogs (SCG) 40/60 I know this is at our beloved SCG but our record against the Dogs is pretty depressing, we'll need every ounce of home ground advantage if we want to come out of this one alive. Getting off to a flyer against them will be the key here.

                                  Brisbane (Gabba) 50/50 I'll admit it, I don't rate Brisbane. Unless they're ripping it up at this stage we should take the points and hopefully book ourselves a home final first up.


                                  Teams in green are the ones I think we'll beat

                                    Comment

                                    • Go Swannies
                                      Veterans List
                                      • Sep 2003
                                      • 5698
                                      #10
                                      Originally posted by dimelb
                                      ... or have got on the board after getting on the turps ...
                                      I just presumed someone had stolen Liz's identity and I was waiting to hear I'd won the UK lottery and only she could help me claim the cash . . .

                                        Comment

                                        • Go Swannies
                                          Veterans List
                                          • Sep 2003
                                          • 5698
                                          #11
                                          Originally posted by DeadlyAkkuret
                                          This is how I see it

                                          Collingwood (ANZ) 40/60 I'm probably being generous, our record against the Pies speaks for itself.

                                          Richmond (MCG) 80/20 The Tigers wont do to us what they did to West Coast.

                                          North Melbourne (SCG) 60/40 I would have said 70/30 but the Roos have looked good over the last month or so, putting in some big efforts against the Lions and Blues. If we're serious, we'll still beat them quite easily.

                                          Carlton (Etihad) 40/60 Assuming we win the two games prior to this one and we're still in the race, this game is absolutely huge. While I'd definitely have Carlton as favourites, in my opinion we're more talented than they are and this will be an "us or them" encounter.

                                          Melbourne (MCG) 60/40 Despite how promising some of the young Dees are we still should go into this game as favourites and should account for this inexperienced side. There's not much more to say, it's a must win.

                                          Geelong (ANZ) 40/60 We ran this side so close last season and many have argued that we're better this time around. Players like Goodes, Bolton, O'Keefe and McVeigh will need huge games for us to win this, none of the experienced guys can afford to be passengers.

                                          Hawthorn (SCG) 60/40 Much like the Carlton match this encounter will go a long way to deciding just how good we are. Again, let's assume we've won all the games we should to this point and Hawthorn are in good form, then whoever wins this will probably knock the other side out of finals calculations.

                                          Fremantle (Subiaco) 30/70 God help us, just pray that Fremantle of about 2 years ago shows up to this one.

                                          Bulldogs (SCG) 40/60 I know this is at our beloved SCG but our record against the Dogs is pretty depressing, we'll need every ounce of home ground advantage if we want to come out of this one alive. Getting off to a flyer against them will be the key here.

                                          Brisbane (Gabba) 50/50 I'll admit it, I don't rate Brisbane. Unless they're ripping it up at this stage we should take the points and hopefully book ourselves a home final first up.


                                          Teams in green are the ones I think we'll beat
                                          I'd love us to win just one of the Dogs, Cats and Freo games (well, really I'd love us to win all of them but don't consider that likely). Then our season would be defined by the Hawks and Blues games - as long as we don't let any of the easy games go.

                                            Comment

                                            • DeadlyAkkuret
                                              Veterans List
                                              • Oct 2006
                                              • 4547
                                              #12
                                              Well if we do manage to win the games that I've bolded, we'll have 13 wins which is more than enough.

                                                Comment

                                                • liz
                                                  Veteran
                                                  Site Admin
                                                  • Jan 2003
                                                  • 16844
                                                  #13
                                                  Sorry. It was a flippant, ever-so-firmly tongue in cheek comment, with a bit of a nod to a recent Bas thread. I've spent most of the past 4 hours sitting at home writing my work annual performance review and I needed a bit of a distraction.

                                                  Anyone who knows my RWO persona will know that I believe we can win any of them (though not necessarily that we will win them all!)

                                                    Comment

                                                    • ScottH
                                                      It's Goodes to cheer!!
                                                      • Sep 2003
                                                      • 23665
                                                      #14
                                                      Originally posted by Go Swannies
                                                      On current form, the Cats will be playing in the GF. It's just a matter of who faces them. Why not us?

                                                      I thought I was being optimistic. There are only three games I'm not holding out much hope for a win. If we don't let teams like the Dees and the Tiges surprise us, I'd take 7 wins out of the last 10 games as a good result!
                                                      I was having a shot at the "should win BUT ..."

                                                      7/10 would definitely see us contend for a top 4 spot.

                                                        Comment

                                                        • Danzar
                                                          I'm doing ok right now, thanks
                                                          • Jun 2006
                                                          • 2028
                                                          #15
                                                          My calls:

                                                          R13 Pies, home - loss

                                                          R14 Tigers, away - win

                                                          R15 North, home - win

                                                          R16 Blues, away - loss

                                                          R17 Dees, away - win

                                                          R18 Cats, home - loss

                                                          R19 Hawks, home - win

                                                          R20 Freo, away - win

                                                          R21 Dogs, home - loss

                                                          R22 Lions, away - win

                                                          Final season - 13-9. I don't think we'll finish top four. 6th at best. Top four will be occupied by Cats, Pies, 'aints and the Doggies.

                                                          If I were to concede on any of the above, it would be Freo or Hawks. Probably Freo, purely due to Subi.
                                                          Captain, I am detecting large quantities of win in this sector

                                                            Comment

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