The Run Home

[sharp9]

...not for a moment am i talking us up....BUT...if we get injured players back and play just a LITTLE bit better we are actually a shot for the top 4.

In our last six games we (from this vantage point) are favourites in 2 (Melbourne and Brisbane away) and proper underdogs in 2 (Geelong and Freo) and even money in 2 (Hawthorn and Bulldogs) Both the Hawthorn and Bulldogs games are at the SCG - so why not? We haven't beaten any kind of top four side for 3 years or so (that is to say any team that was in the top 4 when we beat them or ended up in the top 4 in a year when we beat them)...but surely these things have to turn around at SOME stage. Also all the teams are a bit tired (except Collingwood who we don't play till the Grand final according to my ladder predictor....when we play the greatest GF of all time and beat them with a long range bomb from Jesse White after the siren!).

The Geelong game is at home...they are a bit tired and not travelling happily at the moment. Others have upset them interstate, why not us?

The main answer to all my "why nots?" is Bradshaw, Seaby, Bolton and Smith...

Freo are still Freo - they can win when they shouldn't and lose when they shouldn't....damn we did....if we hadn't dipped at the wrong time v Hawthorn and Richmond we would be in the top 4 now. we haven't won any lucky games.....we are due.....in the same way that Geelong are due to have their worst game in 3 years and have it be against us for a change!

5 wins from the last 6 games will probably get us into the top 4 on 14 wins.

Cheer, cheer!

[Nich]

I love the optimism but I think I'm still cautious about all the form. Last week was a great win but the Dogs also pumped the Blues the week before. We still haven't beaten a form side. We might snag one but i can't see us getting a run on the good teams leading into the finals. I'm happy to get into 6th at best. I hope you're right though : )

[Go Swannies]

We are doing pretty well considering our injury toll. I think losing Smith will hurt us more than we know - and Footy Teams last night said "it was quite a tear". But yes, we need to do a big lift in a big game. The ideal would be the Cats - though in the eyes of the media the Crows getting over them will just be the other example of the Cats resting pre finals. If we win two of the Cats, Dogs and Hawks it would be a surprise, though not impossible, and would have us as real contenders in the finals.

Last week Roos had to mix it up - Mal forward at one stage, Shaw there the whole game, Pyke a genuine target, and it really threw Ratten's plans. It's yet to be seen if it'll work against smarter coaches but we may have no choice till we get some of the other players back. That's good. These weeks are showing us we do have genuine depth with players like Ted and Bevan stepping up and playing like seniors players - like TDL and Rohan - even though they struggle to get into our fully fit team.

[ScottH]

One thing I would disagree with you is the "even money on the Dogs".
We've struggled against them, for more years than I care to remember now.
I'd put them in with the Cats, we'd be more likely to knock of Freo than the Dogs, But I'd like to think I'm wrong.

[Go Swannies]

One thing I would disagree with you is the "even money on the Dogs".
We've struggled against them, for more years than I care to remember now.
I'd put them in with the Cats, we'd be more likely to knock of Freo than the Dogs, But I'd like to think I'm wrong.

True Scott - for years the Swans hard bodies were too good for the Doggy pups then Eade worked out that they could just run around us. The turning point in our favour will be when we both tackle hard then run away from them. Jetstar return?

[Go Swannies]

The Age has done the homework for us and says:
Best-case scenario: Tough draw. If the Swans were able to win each game (except for Geelong) and therefore get unlikely wins over Hawthorn, Fremantle and the Dogs they could finish as high as fifth. This is optimistic. We see them slipping into seventh with two more wins.

Worst-case scenario: The Swans could finish as low as 10th if they don't win another game. We see them beating Melbourne this week and the Lions in round 22. If they win just one of those games they will end up eighth.

So there's no way we can snare 4th? Except win every game? I guess that a lot hinges on other results. I wonder how the ladder predictor will pan out after this weekend?

[aardvark]

I think finishing 5th or 6th would be a fantastic achievement for this group after last year and the unfortunate injuries we have had.
C'mon Swannies, you can do it !!

[Triple B]

One thing I would disagree with you is the "even money on the Dogs".
We've struggled against them, for more years than I care to remember now.
I'd put them in with the Cats, we'd be more likely to knock of Freo than the Dogs, But I'd like to think I'm wrong.

I reckon the planets will align for that match Scotty.

SCG, under lights, Kirky's and Roosy's last H&A match (and possibly last ever match) in Sydney, Barry Hall back at his old stomping ground etc etc.

Of course it's very dependant on how we are travelling, but if we are going OK and playing for a possible Top 4 or a home final at the very least, this game will be the biggest game at the SCG since the 2005 SF.

I seriously reckon we can crack 40K for this match and when you get 40K in the SCG and things are tight, the atmosphere will be AWESOME.

For the same reason, I reckon we will beat the Hawks as well.

[Yuri H]

I think finishing 5th or 6th would be a fantastic achievement for this group after last year and the unfortunate injuries we have had.
C'mon Swannies, you can do it !!

I'd be quite happy with this. Miraculous leaps into top four are more than welcome, of course, if the universe is listening.

[dimelb]

I reckon the planets will align for that match Scotty.

SCG, under lights, Kirky's and Roosy's last H&A match (and possibly last ever match) in Sydney, Barry Hall back at his old stomping ground etc etc.
Of course it's very dependant on how we are travelling, but if we are going OK and playing for a possible Top 4 or a home final at the very least, this game will be the biggest game at the SCG since the 2005 SF.

I seriously reckon we can crack 40K for this match and when you get 40K in the SCG and things are tight, the atmosphere will be AWESOME.

For the same reason, I reckon we will beat the Hawks as well.

Among the etc. etc. is the strong chance of a fit Bradshaw to reinforce our chances.

[GoSouth33]

Before the Collingwood game I was tipping that we could beat the Cats at Homebush. All that changed after our loss to the pies. We then lost to Richmond and confidence took a battering. We then played better against North and had a fantastic win against the Blues (but then they were bad). I'm back feeling upbeat about some of our coming games and think winning three is a fair chance. However, we seem to play into the Cats hands by scheduling the game at Homebush. I seem to recall from somewhere, that Kardinia Park and Homebush are almost identical in dimension. So, the advantage that we might have had is lost. Would dearly love to beat the Hawks at the SCG given that we narrowly lost to them at the MCG.

[matthew]

i penciled the swans to finish eighth and I'll stick with it, it's a tough month ahead, Melbourne and Brisbane are winnable games, they have to win at least one of those four tough games to stay in the eight.

[ShockOfHair]

Normally I'd rate us a better chance to beat the Cats than the Dogs, but like 3B says, the Roos-Kirk farewell at the SCG could count for something.

Especially now we know all the Doggies' secrets.

I can't see us beating any of the other top sides. Let's hope the Lions stay out of form for six weeks.

[Peace]

the only game i am worried about is Fremantle at home.

[giant]

The Age has done the homework for us and says:
Best-case scenario: Tough draw. If the Swans were able to win each game (except for Geelong) and therefore get unlikely wins over Hawthorn, Fremantle and the Dogs they could finish as high as fifth. This is optimistic. We see them slipping into seventh with two more wins.

Worst-case scenario: The Swans could finish as low as 10th if they don't win another game. We see them beating Melbourne this week and the Lions in round 22. If they win just one of those games they will end up eighth.

So there's no way we can snare 4th? Except win every game? I guess that a lot hinges on other results. I wonder how the ladder predictor will pan out after this weekend?

Got a link, GS?