Swans the new Richmond

[aardvark]

I think with our current recruiting policy there's a fair chance we could finish 9th for the next 5 years+.
Teams that win premierships bottom out first.

[liz]

I think with our current recruiting policy there's a fair chance we could finish 9th for the next 5 years+.
Teams that win premierships bottom out first.

Name the ones that have done so.

[aardvark]

Geelong 2001-2003. Brisbane 1998, Port Adelaide 2000,Hawthorn 2004 2005. Need I go on.......Nth Melb 1992, Adelaide 1994-1996....I can probably find more if you want.

[UglyDuckling]

1 bad loss and we're the new richmond. Throughout the roos era we have been the anti-richmond.

Absolutely no evidence of a richmond style era coming up.

[liz]

Geelong 2001-2003. Brisbane 1998, Port Adelaide 2000,Hawthorn 2004 2005. Need I go on.......Nth Melb 1992, Adelaide 1994-1996....I can probably find more if you want.

You and I clearly have a very different idea of what it is to bottom out.

[laughingnome]

Geelong 2001-2003. Brisbane 1998, Port Adelaide 2000,Hawthorn 2004 2005. Need I go on.......Nth Melb 1992, Adelaide 1994-1996....I can probably find more if you want.

Geelong's list is as good as it is because Pagan didn't want Mooney and the blessing of the F/S rule, not to mention that in those three eyars they finished 12th, 9th, 12th, won 27 games and missed the finals by a whisker in 2002.

Brisbane had the benefit of a huge list after the merger as well as a 15% allowance which added to their pool.

Port Adelaide joined the competition in 1997 and went 9th, 10th, 7th, 14th, 5th, 3rd, 1st, 6th: You picked the one year they dipped (and still won 7 games). Hardly what I'd call 'bottoming out".

Hawthorn is a credibly entry with 9 wins over those two seasons, but still lean their team on second round picks (like Buddy) and later picks.

North Melbourne in 1992 is the same story as Port: they dipped in 1992 as players retired and the young guns, who had won back to back premierships in the under-19 competition (1990-1991) were finding their feet. In the draft that year they chose Robert Pyman (#6 overall, 1992) who was traded to Collingwood in 1995 cause he was a spud. From 1989 North went 9th, 6th, 8th, 12th, 5th, 3rd.

Adelaide won 26 games over those 3 years and was unlucky to miss finals in 1994 and 1995 owing to some close games (and there not being a final 8 ). It was a benefit but not a bottom out, and their #1 picks for those years were Toby Kennett (#27 overall, 1994), Brent Williams (#18, 1995) and Tom Gilligan (#13, 1996). Hardly stellar picks in drafts compromised by Fremantle, Port Adelaide and the tail of Sydney's priority picks.

Get some real figures (outside of Hawthorn).

The lesson of the draft is that the top picks will get you some good players, but premierships are won by savvy list management and lower-order recruiting and rookies, and then molding a game plan to tailor the list. Remember that every team must delist 3 players every year and draft 3 every year. It's not always an easy call to make.

[liz]

Brisbane had the benefit of a huge list after the merger as well as a 15% allowance which added to their pool.

Specifically on Brisbane, they played in finals in 1995, 1996, 1997, 1999, 2000 in the lead-up years to their treble. In 1998 they had a horror run with injury and fell in a heap to finish last, but only really netted Headland as a result. He was a decent player but hardly the reason they won even one premiership, let alone three.

[laughingnome]

Specifically on Brisbane, they played in finals in 1995, 1996, 1997, 1999, 2000 in the lead-up years to their treble. In 1998 they had a horror run with injury and fell in a heap to finish last, but only really netted Headland as a result. He was a decent player but hardly the reason they won even one premiership, let alone three.

Exactly. The Bears made the finals in 1995 and everyone thought it a fluke. Then they hit 3rd in 1996 and looked the goods. They benefited from Victorian short-sightedness who didn't want to create a "super-team" by merging Fitzroy with North, so the Bears were choson in July that year. The Lions were mean and potent and when the kids matured they made every club that let that reason decide their ballot look like chumps.

[laughingnome]

I think it's also worth pointing out that since Barassi carved the Sydney Swans in his holy image (poetic licence) we have finished 2nd, 7th, 5th, 8th, 10th, 7th, 11th (2002), 3rd, 5th, 1st, 2nd, 7th, 5th, 12th (1996 - 2009). 11 years from 14 we've played finals, a record that is exemplary. And to kick the bottoming out theory we won a premiership and only fate stopped us getting another. I don't care what anyone else says: Freeborn's knee cost us the 1996 GF as well.

[Bloody Hell]

Bad thread.

No further explanation required.

[aardvark]

We will see.....Oh and in another year or two I'll be able to include Melbourne as well.....

[ScottH]

Yawn

[Melbournehammer]

up until recently i was in the camp that tanking doesn't benefit - and it may not in the future - but I am currently unconvinced by the arguments put up by the don't fall down to climb up school. sure richmond haven't but they drafted very poorly over a number of seasons as did essendon.

but rather than focus on flag winners lets focus on teams that can win it - and in those cases with the exception of geelong (who stand uniquely because of f/s picks) each of them seems to me to be a team which bottomed out. the dogs got priority picks, the saints got priority picks, hawthorn got top three draft picks (and did some really clever trading) fremantle has got top three draft picks even though they were prelim finalists in 2005, collingwood got priority draft picks based on one bad year

its all very well to say that bottoming out hasn't produced too many flag winners, and that lists are made up of players who come from the clouds to be stars but to say that it doesn't massively increase your chances in 2-3 years time is just fantasy in my view.

on the other hand repeatedly finishing 6-10 is a recipe for nothing - one week in the finals - sometimes two if you are lucky enough to get a failing north...and north is a good example of a club which can't afford to bottom out because it has nothing left to fall on - no supporter base, no financial base, no likelihood of getting anything new.

[aardvark]

up until recently i was in the camp that tanking doesn't benefit - and it may not in the future - but I am currently unconvinced by the arguments put up by the don't fall down to climb up school. sure richmond haven't but they drafted very poorly over a number of seasons as did essendon.

but rather than focus on flag winners lets focus on teams that can win it - and in those cases with the exception of geelong (who stand uniquely because of f/s picks) each of them seems to me to be a team which bottomed out. the dogs got priority picks, the saints got priority picks, hawthorn got top three draft picks (and did some really clever trading) fremantle has got top three draft picks even though they were prelim finalists in 2005, collingwood got priority draft picks based on one bad year

its all very well to say that bottoming out hasn't produced too many flag winners, and that lists are made up of players who come from the clouds to be stars but to say that it doesn't massively increase your chances in 2-3 years time is just fantasy in my view.

on the other hand repeatedly finishing 6-10 is a recipe for nothing - one week in the finals - sometimes two if you are lucky enough to get a failing north...and north is a good example of a club which can't afford to bottom out because it has nothing left to fall on - no supporter base, no financial base, no likelihood of getting anything new.

Yes, exactly right. The difference between us and North is that the AFL will keep us alive if need be whereas they will be quite happy for North to have to relocate. To say we can't bottom out because the "Fickle" Sydney based Swans supporters will disappear is an insult to our Northern friends and no excuse for hanging around in the middle of the ladder "surviving". We were lucky with our trade/draft period this year, it is unlikely to happen again. Just look at Brisbanes attempt to win a premiership this year with top ups, what a success that has been.

[aardvark]

Bad thread.

No further explanation required.

Thanks for your intelligent contribution once again.