Finals calculations

[cruiser]

So far so good: Geelong def Carlton.

[BSA5]

Would have been nice if they beat them by a bit more, lowered their percentage. Oh well.

[cruiser]

Would have been nice if they beat them by a bit more, lowered their percentage. Oh well.

Would have been nice to have Carlton beaten by so much that we moved into 6th without playing yet but they did lose about 2.5%.

[liz]

Percentage gap is far too large to be made up at this stage of the season.

In any case, assuming Freo lose to the Hawks tomorrow and we can beat Brisbane next weekend, we're close to assured of a 5 or 6 finish regardless of how we go tomorrow. Only spanner in the works is if the Hawks get over the Pies in round 22.

[Captain]

Percentage gap is far too large to be made up at this stage of the season.

In any case, assuming Freo lose to the Hawks tomorrow and we can beat Brisbane next weekend, we're close to assured of a 5 or 6 finish regardless of how we go tomorrow. Only spanner in the works is if the Hawks get over the Pies in round 22.

???

If Freo and us lose tomorrow and then Freo lose to Carlton, we can't make 5th or 6th (unless Freo get absolutely pumped in both games, we have a narrow loss to Dogs and then pump the Lions)

[BSA5]

Percentage gap is far too large to be made up at this stage of the season.

Not at all. We're more than capable of making up ground on Carlton over this week and next week. And if both we and the Dons pump the Doggies by >100 points, and then we beat Brisbane by a similar margin, we could technically nab 4th. Now wouldn't that be something!

[liz]

???

If Freo and us lose tomorrow and then Freo lose to Carlton, we can't make 5th or 6th (unless Freo get absolutely pumped in both games, we have a narrow loss to Dogs and then pump the Lions)

You're correct. I had omitted the possibility of Carlton beating Freo from my calculations. (Unless Freo get completely smashed by the Hawks and lose convincingly to Carlton, which contradicts my argument that percentage is unlikely to come into play.) That Richmond loss could still prove costly.

A perfect scenario would be Freo beating the Blues (and us winning at least one more). That way we'd probably finish 6th and Carlton 7th. I don't think we should fear any of our likely first round finals opponents, but Carlton (in Sydney) would probably be my pick.

[UglyDuckling]

This is my realistically possible scenario

Hawthorn D Freo
Geelong D Carlton
Doggies D Swans

Collingwood D hawks
Freo D Carlton
Swans D Brisbane

This would give us
5th Freo
6th Swans
7th Hawks
8th Blues
Resulting in a very tough home final against Hawthorn

But if freo win both games and the rest stays the same we would get carlton at home (best case scenario in my opinion)

[Steve]

Assuming we lose to the Bulldogs, I would have thought the best scenario to hope for would be Freo losing to Hawthorn by 80 or so, then losing to Carlton by 30+ (both possible) - leaving them with a percentage of about 103%. As long as we have a narrow loss to the Bulldogs and win by a few goals against Brisbane, we could go above Freo.

Provided Hawthorn lose to Collingwood, that would leave us 6th and Freo 7th, having them travel and coming off 4 losses.

Then again it's almost certain things won't go as expected - we'll probably beat the Bulldogs, lose to Brisbane, Hawthorn will beat Collingwood and Freo and Carlton draw.

[Bas]

Not at all. We're more than capable of making up ground on Carlton over this week and next week. And if both we and the Dons pump the Doggies by >100 points, and then we beat Brisbane by a similar margin, we could technically nab 4th. Now wouldn't that be something!

Is that a knock on your door? Must be Jennifer Hawkins and Megan Gale calling to take you out on a date.

[JudesaGun]

If this is the case and the other games go to plan, can anyone tell me who'd we'd play week 2 of the finals?

This is my realistically possible scenario

Hawthorn D Freo
Geelong D Carlton
Doggies D Swans

Collingwood D hawks
Freo D Carlton
Swans D Brisbane

This would give us
5th Freo
6th Swans
7th Hawks
8th Blues
Resulting in a very tough home final against Hawthorn

But if freo win both games and the rest stays the same we would get carlton at home (best case scenario in my opinion)

[UglyDuckling]

If this is the case and the other games go to plan, can anyone tell me who'd we'd play week 2 of the finals?

Under this scenario we would get the looser of Geelong and St Kilda assuming that geelong win would have St Kilda in Melbourne.

I would be quietly confident that we would give them a real run for their money. We match up well on them.

If we were to win that we would take on the winner of Bulldogs V Collingwood in the prelim. Asume Collingwood win

Knock over collingwood in the prelim for a glorious MCG win over the pies, the first in many years

Then Take on Geelong in the grand final take them to the cleaners Kieran Jack BOG

Bang we win the flag, its that easy people

[Damien]

???

If Freo and us lose tomorrow and then Freo lose to Carlton, we can't make 5th or 6th (unless Freo get absolutely pumped in both games, we have a narrow loss to Dogs and then pump the Lions)

Freo may lose by 150 today! 76 down, 2 minutes INTO 3rd quater....the bottom half of the 8 is all over the place!

[aardvark]

Under this scenario we would get the looser of Geelong and St Kilda assuming that geelong win would have St Kilda in Melbourne.

I would be quietly confident that we would give them a real run for their money. We match up well on them.

If we were to win that we would take on the winner of Bulldogs V Collingwood in the prelim. Asume Collingwood win

Knock over collingwood in the prelim for a glorious MCG win over the pies, the first in many years

Then Take on Geelong in the grand final take them to the cleaners Kieran Jack BOG

Bang we win the flag, its that easy people

Wow you must be on some good @@@t man.......

[RogueSwan]

If this is the case and the other games go to plan, can anyone tell me who'd we'd play week 2 of the finals?

play with this