Odds for 2011

[top40]

The ageing part of the 2011 list will be little different from 2005. In that Premiership year, the following players turned 30 after September 2004:

? Stuart Maxwell 33 (9th April)
? Jason Ball 32 (21st November)
? Paul Williams 32 (3rd April)
? Matthew Nicks 30 (13th May)

For 2011, the following players turn 30 for the next 12 months:

? Daniel Bradshaw 32 (21st November)
? Craig Bolton 31 (31st May)
? Jude Bolton 31 (15th March)
? Adam Goodes 31 (8th January)
? Tadhg Kennelly 30 (1st July)
? Ryan O?Keefe 30 (24th January)

I don't think being 30 or 31 is that old. However, like in 2005, not all of the above will have a great 2011 and may retire. We still need nevertheless at least some of the above senior players to lead and guild the younger players next year. And bearing in mind that Barry Hall, who turns 34 in a few months time, destroyed us in the semi final this year, whilst Dustin Fletcher at 35 is still one of the best defenders in the game.

[MrPresident]

The fact that we will have 7 players who will be 30 or more running around next year, if all goes well, probably justifies the 'too old' tag. But that overlooks the fact that they are quality players. Who wouldn't want Bradshaw or Goodes or ROK in their team - when they are fit. It is hard to know how Bolton 2 will go but Kennelly, Jude and Shaw still have plenty to offer.

As it is true that we do best when no one rates us so that's all to the good. But I think things might be changing. In the next couple of years the Swans may shake off the tag of being the dour, defensive, boring team with a 'cortina' midfield, starting with 2011!

The 7 players over 30 thing would be a problem, if we didn't have so many young talented players coming through. A perfect example is Kirk and Jack. Kirk retired and a while ago we might have thought he'd be irreplaceable but Jack looks like a more talented but equally as hard working version of Kirk. The same goes for a lot of other players. Of the 30+ crowd the only one who will be missed (in my opinion) is Goodes, he is a once in a generation talent, but even with him I'm hopeful Rohan can grow into the role Goodes has played for us.

The problem with the Melbourne media is they see our senior group getting on in years and they presume we'll collapse, but they haven't even heard of many of the young players that we know. Beyond Jack and Hannebery they probably have no idea who TDL, Rohan, Jetta, Reid, Johnston etc are. But Swans fans are more familiar with our list, and we know better. It looks like this offeseason we might make another couple of important gains (Everitt, Sherman) that will play a part in our next premiership window. At the odds we're getting I'll put a few dollars on the Swans making the 2011 GF.

And about our midfield, I totally agree with you. We'll always have our stingy Defense but this midfield group we're developing has potential to burn. 18 months to 2 years from now we will have the dominating midfield of the league.

[Hartijon]

Interesting that everybody is writing off Sydney and the Suns as well. Look at who the Suns have recruited and you have to give them some respect.They will be a hard side to beat maybe later in the season.

[MrPresident]

Interesting that everybody is writing off Sydney and the Suns as well. Look at who the Suns have recruited and you have to give them some respect.They will be a hard side to beat maybe later in the season.

I think it depends a lot on how all their draft picks turn out. Although we all like to think we can pick the superstars in each draft, a lot of sure things turn into busts and a lot of under the radar guys turn into stars. Look at how many of todays stars were picked outside the first few selections, and look at how many early picks never turned out to be any good. If those kids they get end up being legit stars, it won't be long before they're a contender. If a lot of them turn out to be busts they'll have a tough few years.

[top40]

The 7 players over 30 thing would be a problem, if we didn't have so many young talented players coming through. .

There is actually 6, Rhyce Shaw is still only 28.

Can you image if we had no players over 30, particularly noting Brett Kirk's retirement? We need the leadership on field.

That said, (and perhaps contradicting myself here), but even though all six of the over 30 players are champions, the Swans only really depend heavily on two (Bradshaw and Goodes), to make further inroads in 2011. The other four (C.Bolton, Kennelly, J.Bolton and O'Keefe) will have to remain competitively strong to stay in the top 22, not rely on past performances. And that is a good sign, with the talented youth and 'middle age' players coming through right now.

[Hartijon]

Anybody notice the youth of Collingwood?

"Their nine under-60-game group is Dayne Beams, Jarryd Blair, Tyson Goldsack, Nathan Brown, Chris Dawes, Brent Macaffer , Ben Reid , Sidebottom and Sharrod Wellingham."

They have already got many of their 200 gamers out of the firsts .

Aardvark..we were right again!

[MrPresident]

There is actually 6, Rhyce Shaw is still only 28.

Can you image if we had no players over 30, particularly noting Brett Kirk's retirement? We need the leadership on field.

That said, (and perhaps contradicting myself here), but even though all six of the over 30 players are champions, the Swans only really depend heavily on two (Bradshaw and Goodes), to make further inroads in 2011. The other four (C.Bolton, Kennelly, J.Bolton and O'Keefe) will have to remain competitively strong to stay in the top 22, not rely on past performances. And that is a good sign, with the talented youth and 'middle age' players coming through right now.

I agree completely. A lot of our senior group were injured for extended periods this season, Goodes was inconsistent. We got to 5th led by players like Jack and Hannebery. We have so many players in their mid and early 20s the transistion will be smooth. You're right about Bradshaw and Goodes, they are key to us having top 4 success next season, but even with them I see two players ready to take on their roles over the long term.

Johnston will be ready to take over FF just as Bradshaw is ready to retire. And if the news about Rohan is true, he looks to be the red hair version of Goodes. I'm not saying he'll be quite as good as Goodes, but he does have superstar written all over him, he's grown in height, added weight and is even faster than Jetta. Down the line he's either going to be too big or too fast for anybody that the opposition puts on him, like Goodes, like Riewoldt. My early pick for 2011 rising star.

[Ratna]

I disagree with the bookies, I would be really surprised if we slipped out of the eight and would love to get some better than even money odds on us being there. However, on the young versus old, it needs to be the emerging and future stars that define our season next year. Sure we need leadership possibly coming from a few over 30's, but if we are to make the top four and have an impact in the finals its up to the players coming through to step up and create their own era.

[Nico]

There is actually 6, Rhyce Shaw is still only 28.

Can you image if we had no players over 30, particularly noting Brett Kirk's retirement? We need the leadership on field.

That said, (and perhaps contradicting myself here), but even though all six of the over 30 players are champions, the Swans only really depend heavily on two (Bradshaw and Goodes), to make further inroads in 2011. The other four (C.Bolton, Kennelly, J.Bolton and O'Keefe) will have to remain competitively strong to stay in the top 22, not rely on past performances. And that is a good sign, with the talented youth and 'middle age' players coming through right now.

We have a new coach. He doesn't have to feel he is loyal to the older players. He will for sure be looking to build a stronger squad and won't want to fall by the wayside in his first couple of years. I have my worries about Craig Bolton coming up, has Jude Bolton gone one season too many (how many head hits can he take), ROK was looking battle weary at the end of the season and who knows with Bradshaw. Kennelly played well enough to expect another good season from him and Goodes as yet has shown no signs of dropping off quickly.

[Go Swannies]

We have a new coach. He doesn't have to feel he is loyal to the older players. He will for sure be looking to build a stronger squad and won't want to fall by the wayside in his first couple of years. I have my worries about Craig Bolton coming up, has Jude Bolton gone one season too many (how many head hits can he take), ROK was looking battle weary at the end of the season and who knows with Bradshaw. Kennelly played well enough to expect another good season from him and Goodes as yet has shown no signs of dropping off quickly.

I spoke to B2 on Friday night and asked how he was going as I'd heard his injury was career threatening? He said that he was fixed and back in serious training and would be ready to go next season.

[Industrial Fan]

The new intechange rules should really suit Goodesy and ROK so I dont think their age should work against them too much.

If ROK can shake his groin injury they should both lead the way in 2011.

[aardvark]

Anybody notice the youth of Collingwood?

"Their nine under-60-game group is Dayne Beams, Jarryd Blair, Tyson Goldsack, Nathan Brown, Chris Dawes, Brent Macaffer , Ben Reid , Sidebottom and Sharrod Wellingham."

They have already got many of their 200 gamers out of the firsts .

Aardvark..we were right again!

Yep ....and isn't the silence deafening.

[Go Swannies]

Yep ....and isn't the silence deafening.

But it seems young teams only win in even numbered years and 2012 is too far away.

[aardvark]

but it seems young teams only win in even numbered years and 2012 is too far away.

lol....yep 2011 would be nice.

[DeadlyAkkuret]

Yep ....and isn't the silence deafening.

You guys are clearly geniuses, youth and only youth is the best policy. Let's ship off all players nearing or over 30, even if they're still in the best 22 just get some more kids in!!!