Odds for 2011

[top40]

But it seems young teams only win in even numbered years and 2012 is too far away.

Collingwood's 2010 Premiership represents the second youngest list to win a flag. The fate of young lists who win Premierships in not promising. Witness:

1978 Hawthorn. Youngest ever list. Next season they failed to make the Finals
1993 Essendon. Now the third youngest list to win a flag. Next season they failed to make the Finals
1992 West Coast. The Malthouse coached team is the fourth youngest list to win a flag. The next seaon they only just made the finals, coming 6th ahead on Geelong on percentage.
2008 Hawthorn and 1967 Richmond. Special mentions here for two teams noted for their youth. The next seasons they both failed to make the finals.

[aardvark]

Collingwood's 2010 Premiership represents the second youngest list to win a flag. The fate of young lists who win Premierships in not promising. Witness:

1978 Hawthorn. Youngest ever list. Next season they failed to make the Finals
1993 Essendon. Now the third youngest list to win a flag. Next season they failed to make the Finals
1992 West Coast. The Malthouse coached team is the fourth youngest list to win a flag. The next seaon they only just made the finals, coming 6th ahead on Geelong on percentage.
2008 Hawthorn and 1967 Richmond. Special mentions here for two teams noted for their youth. The next seasons they both failed to make the finals.

Ah yes but they all won premierships. While it would be nice to make finals the year after who really cares after you win a flag. After all that's what we play for.

[dimelb]

... Of the 30+ crowd the only one who will be missed (in my opinion) is Goodes, he is a once in a generation talent, but even with him I'm hopeful Rohan can grow into the role Goodes has played for us. ... We'll always have our stingy Defense but this midfield group we're developing has potential to burn. 18 months to 2 years from now we will have the dominating midfield of the league.

Red Rover?

[laughingnome]

1992 West Coast. The Malthouse coached team is the fourth youngest list to win a flag. The next seaon they only just made the finals, coming 6th ahead on Geelong on percentage.

Sure, but they made the GF in 1991 and would thrash Geelong in 1994 for their 2nd flag. I'd take 3 Grand Finals and 2 Flags in 4 years, and 6th of 15 is still not that bad.

[Hartijon]

Ah yes but they all won premierships. While it would be nice to make finals the year after who really cares after you win a flag. After all that's what we play for.

That is the point and the only point!! I hate to praise the Pies but they went for it all guns blazing. If their list was the Swans list players like Fraser, Medhurst and Lockyer would have been in the best 22. "Making the finals" is a nice achievement,winning the flag is the ultimate achievement. Its what its all about and as you say."Who cares about not making the finals the year after.

[Margie]

I spoke to B2 on Friday night and asked how he was going as I'd heard his injury was career threatening? He said that he was fixed and back in serious training and would be ready to go next season.

This is good news!

If I was a betting person, I'd put a wager on the Swans for top 4 in 2011.

[top40]

Sure, but they made the GF in 1991 and would thrash Geelong in 1994 for their 2nd flag. I'd take 3 Grand Finals and 2 Flags in 4 years, and 6th of 15 is still not that bad.

My point was that young teams who win flags almost ineventually suffer premiership hangovers the very next season. In the case of the Pies, 2011 is relevant here, not in 2012 and beyond.

In the case of West Coast in the 90's, they had the quantity to come back in 1994. They still suffered a hang over in 1993. The same with Richmond in the late 60's: Flag '67, Failure '68, Flag '69.

[ScottH]

This is good news!

If I was a betting person, I'd put a wager on the Swans for top 4 in 2011.

Go on.
I dare you!!

[Ratna]

Just because a young side wins a flag doesn't make it the blueprint for everyone to follow. Collingwood appear to have a good young group but that doesn't mean that if you throw in a young group you will win a flag. Would love to see the figures for young groups that have failed or taken time to develop. It is misleading to pick a few years grand final winners and say that young teams are definitely the way to go. However, there is a degree of truth in exposing young players to seniors helps them develop if they are the right players, others need time in the 2s. No one strategy works for every player or every group. Over the recent past I think the Swans have done a pretty good job of balance in the team and player edevelopment, but we could chase Mick Malthouse as coach if thats what you really want.

[aardvark]

Fascinating really. If you believe this thread players are too young at 22 -23 then too old ,should retire, at 29-30. This leaves a very small window where they actually fit into the "Right Age Group". Maybe we should shift the focus onto "Can they play football"? before the right age window gets so small no one can play anymore.

[top40]

Fascinating really. If you believe this thread players are too young at 22 -23 then too old ,should retire, at 29-30. This leaves a very small window where they actually fit into the "Right Age Group". Maybe we should shift the focus onto "Can they play football"? before the right age window gets so small no one can play anymore.

The reality is that coaches and football directors these days focus very much on the former point you make, with less emphasis on the latter point.

[Hartijon]

This issue is once again being discussed. Look at Steele Sidebottom.Besides having an unfortunate name,this teenager over 8 GF quarters of the most intense football you could imagine played incredibly well. Could have been a Norm Smith winner. Look at our teenager Hanneberry.He is already attracting Brownlow votes and was the Rising Star. If you can play then often you play better at the highest level because the players around you are better. At lower levels you have to fetch your own ball and the ball is rarely neatly delivered.So it is ridiculous to suggest we get rid of all 30 year olds and it is ridiculous to suggest we play all the kids. What I am saying(and I think others too) is that if a kid CAN play then don't age discriminate against him. If a 33 year old can play the same applies. Don't stack your team with plodders in their mid twenties when you have potential stars in the 2's waiting for a chance. Collingwoods example shows what the PACE and Skill of a youthful team can do. To know if we do have potential young stars they must be trialled at Senior level. In a rebuilding year,that is an ideal time to do this! Last season was a rebuilding year for the Swans. We partly did this helped by injuries rather than as a policy I feel.

[Margie]

Go on.
I dare you!!

Okay, I will!

[ScottH]

Okay, I will!

We made 5th with a bunch of cripples in the team.
So it's not a bad bet!

[DeadlyAkkuret]

This issue is once again being discussed. Look at Steele Sidebottom.Besides having an unfortunate name,this teenager over 8 GF quarters of the most intense football you could imagine played incredibly well. Could have been a Norm Smith winner. Look at our teenager Hanneberry.He is already attracting Brownlow votes and was the Rising Star. If you can play then often you play better at the highest level because the players around you are better. At lower levels you have to fetch your own ball and the ball is rarely neatly delivered.So it is ridiculous to suggest we get rid of all 30 year olds and it is ridiculous to suggest we play all the kids. What I am saying(and I think others too) is that if a kid CAN play then don't age discriminate against him. If a 33 year old can play the same applies. Don't stack your team with plodders in their mid twenties when you have potential stars in the 2's waiting for a chance. Collingwoods example shows what the PACE and Skill of a youthful team can do. To know if we do have potential young stars they must be trialled at Senior level. In a rebuilding year,that is an ideal time to do this! Last season was a rebuilding year for the Swans. We partly did this helped by injuries rather than as a policy I feel.

You're stating the obvious. Don't play all kids, don't play all veterans, just try to keep a good balance and have your best 22 at the ground. It's a no-brainer that pace and skill will get you far, it's finding those players who have the pace and skill that makes it tricky and then you need to hope they have the right attitude.

There's so many factors that go in to creating a premiership winning team. I always cringe when someone puts up a list of a handful of young premiership winning sides as if it proves any sort of point at all.