Round 24 - Carlton vs St.Kilda

[Cheer Squad]

The outcome of this match has a direct bearing on week one of our finals campaign, so it might be an idea to have a look at it.

Carlton go into the match comfortable favourites with the bookies, but is that justified?

The Blues clearly have a superior record this year at the MCG, playing 8 times for 5 wins, 2 losses and a draw. Their last three games at the MCG produced thumping wins against Melbourne, Essendon, and Richmond.

St. Kilda, on the other hand, have a very poor record at the MCG this year, playing 5 times for 4 losses and a draw. Their last three games at the MCG produced convincing losses to Geelong, Collingwood and Hawthorn.

Coming into Round 24, Carlton had an easy win to the Dockers in Perth, a loss to Hawthorn at Etihad, and the bye. St.Kilda had competitive losses to Collingwood at Etihad, ourselves at ANZ, and a surprisingly aggressive win against North last week at Etihad.

So who's likely to win this Saturday?

Win, lose or draw, Carlton are playing Essendon in an Elimination Final at the MCG. Their is no real incentive for them to go flat out, or take excessive risks with the Bombers waiting for them.

But if the Saints win on Saturday, the Eliminaton Final will be at their preferred venue, Etihad Stadium, instead of having to travel to Sydney. Objectively, that is a significant incentive.

Despite their poor record at the MCG, it's pretty obvious St. Kilda has got more to play for.

I think the Saints might win.

[Nich]

I think Carlton are a better side but the Saints have a lot to play for. If they put in that extra 10% then that will get the scum home.

[mcs]

I'm very hopeful of a carlton win and voted that way, but I tend to agree with nich - but lets hope the Bluebag scum can do us a favour against those other bunch of losers. I certainly fancy our chances more against Saints in Sydney then I do at Etihad in week 1 of the finals.

[dimelb]

I'll barrack for Carlton, but they have injury problems and I think the Saints have more grit.

[DeadlyAkkuret]

The Saints will probably win, I feel it in my gut.

[Triple B]

I said leading up to the Swans game a fortnight ago that StKilda's form is just ordinary and has been all year. I was 'supremely confident' if I remember correctly and as it turned out, had every right to be.

Let's get real here, Swans let a 10 goal thumping go in that game by kicking terribly.

Players are competitive beasts, if they weren't they wouldn't make the grade at top level, so I don't buy into the Carlton have nothing to play for so the Saints will win argument. I could equally argue and reckon could easily find stats to back me up, that just the pressure of needing to win will be more of a hindrance to StKilda than a help against a side that have 'nothing to play for'.

The only danger is picking up a niggle to somebody as important as a Judd or Murphy which would normally not be a big deal, but given the circumstances may see them come off to be on the safe side.

Otherwise, don't stress, should be a comfortable win to Carlton....

[dendol]

I agree with TripleB. Ratten's got the supposed pressure of winning a final still hanging over him and i can't see him holding back anything in this game after a loss to the hawks and coming off the bye. Every coach is desperate his team to go into finals with form and the confidence of a win against a good team and I reckon the blues are justifiably favourites in this one, especially at the MCG.

[msb]

Yeah I think saints will win to unfortuneately, too much to play for and the blues will just be going through the motions. I wouldnt be surprised if a couple of carltons key players were even late withdrawals to put them in cotton wool before the first finals game, nothing surprises me after what the hawks have done this week at the selection table.

[Go Swannies]

Yeah I think saints will win to unfortuneately, too much to play for and the blues will just be going through the motions. I wouldnt be surprised if a couple of carltons key players were even late withdrawals to put them in cotton wool before the first finals game, nothing surprises me after what the hawks have done this week at the selection table.

I simply can't see that. The Blues are coming off a loss to the Hawks then a bye - a loss to the Saints would set them up for a loss against the Bombers and out in straight sets and finishing the season with three losses in a row. I don't think Ratten has that level of job security. We exposed the Saints - and would have thrashed them with halfway accurate kicking. If the Blues win tonight you'd think they'd account for the Bombers and feel pretty good to take on one of the Top 4.

[Damien]

Work are letting me arrive a day early for a work event to melbourne if the Swans have to play down there, so I am a little less stressed or concerned about a home final. All about me of course haha

FWIW, St Kilda are all over the place and I think Carlton play a style that takes St Kilda out of their zones/structures. Carlton easy for mine and a home final for us

[swansrob]

I'll be at this game cheering the Blues on all the way to a Swans home final

[Triple B]

I wouldnt be surprised if a couple of carltons key players were even late withdrawals to put them in cotton wool before the first finals game, nothing surprises me after what the hawks have done this week at the selection table.

Won't happen.

As I said earlier in the week, the Carlton bye came at a great time for us as the Hawks scenario may well have eventuated if a few were a bit sore, but having last weekend off, no way known will they willingly conspire to have 3 weeks between games and into a final...

[ShockOfHair]

I'm leaning towards the Saints. They smashed North in the second half last week and Reiwolt found some form.

[msb]

Won't happen.

As I said earlier in the week, the Carlton bye came at a great time for us as the Hawks scenario may well have eventuated if a few were a bit sore, but having last weekend off, no way known will they willingly conspire to have 3 weeks between games and into a final...

Well unless your on the carlton selection committee who knows....I dont think it will happen either but I wouldnt be surprised. Why risk judd, murphy, gibbs, betts etc in a meaningless game where they could easily get injured? They are all class players and who knows it may be beneficial for someone like judd for eg to have that longer break coming into a final.

[GongSwan]

Can't see Saints beating Carlton but then it was hard to see us beating Geelong, it's a lottery at this time of year. After having the bye I would think the Blues would want game time into their better players. I still don't think th bye helps many clubs, maybe those with a very young list, but temas get better by playing together, getting that understanding of what the other bloke is going to do etc, yd want yr intended finals side out thee right now