Semi-Final 2 - Hawthorn vs Sydney

[aardvark]

I'm truly sick of the heart attack matches. We are gonna win, may as well be a slaughter ... 40+

I'm with you o'croaky one. Swans by 40+

[longmile]

Swans by 25.
We will be leading at the end of the first quarter by around 1 goal.
At half time we will be out to about 5-6 goals.
In the third the Hawks will fight back and we will be in front by 4 goals.
In the final quarter Hawks will get to within a goal and then successive goals from Parker, Rohan, Goodes and White will give us the win. Woohoo!

Where did you get your crystal ball from?

[Triple B]

I tried to tell anybody who would listen last week that we were morals against a StKilda team whose formline was vastly overrated and both my Betfair and Centrebet accounts are much, much healthier for it.

Unfortunately, I'm much much less confident this week.

History is littered with Elimination final winners who falter the following week when reality bites against sides who confirm why they were top 4 and you weren't.

Admittedly, we're unlikely to ever get Hawthorn at a better time, Buddy-less and injuries to key players. Add to that the fact we are in pretty rare form. We can certainly win, but anybody who thinks the Hawks are going to be a pushover because Buddy won't be there only need to think back to last year when the Dogs were also severely undermanned thru injury, yet found a way to get over the line. I dare say the Hawks are a better side than the Dogs were.

[longmile]

I dare say the Hawks are a better side than the Dogs were.

Dare I say we're a better team than last year?

[aardvark]

I tried to tell anybody who would listen last week that we were morals against a StKilda team whose formline was vastly overrated and both my Betfair and Centrebet accounts are much, much healthier for it.

Unfortunately, I'm much much less confident this week.

History is littered with Elimination final winners who falter the following week when reality bites against sides who confirm why they were top 4 and you weren't.

Admittedly, we're unlikely to ever get Hawthorn at a better time, Buddy-less and injuries to key players. Add to that the fact we are in pretty rare form. We can certainly win, but anybody who thinks the Hawks are going to be a pushover because Buddy won't be there only need to think back to last year when the Dogs were also severely undermanned thru injury, yet found a way to get over the line. I dare say the Hawks are a better side than the Dogs were.

My brain fears you may be right. My winnings will sit happily in my acc. until something better comes along I think. My heart says Swans by 40+.......although I may just have a little look at the margains

[aardvark]

Geez just had a look on Sportsbet and Swans have shortened from $3.30 this morning into $2.55 now. The line is 12.5 pts. There must be a lot of people more confident than me.

[Triple B]

Geez just had a look on Sportsbet and Swans have shortened from $3.30 this morning into $2.55 now. The line is 12.5 pts. There must be a lot of people more confident than me.

Are you sure you read it right this morning??

Centrebet opened $2.60 this morning and Betfair has yo-yoed between $2.60 and $2.70 since betting opened yesterday. If they were $3.30, somebody stuffed up bigtime...

[aardvark]

Are you sure you read it right this morning??

Centrebet opened $2.60 this morning and Betfair has yo-yoed between $2.60 and $2.70 since betting opened yesterday. If they were $3.30, somebody stuffed up bigtime...

It was $3.15. not .30 on TAB Sportsbet. Hawks $1.33. Even so its a fairly big move. Its also in the Hun pg. 75 for confirmation

[Triple B]

It was $3.15. not .30 on TAB Sportsbet. Hawks $1.33. Even so its a fairly big move. Its also in the Hun pg. 75 for confirmation

Even $3.15 is well over the prevailing odds. I wish I saw it, I could have dumped a fair whack on it and laid it back on Betfair at $2.70 and had a free hit...

[Plugger1300]

Even $3.15 is well over the prevailing odds. I wish I saw it, I could have dumped a fair whack on it and laid it back on Betfair at $2.70 and had a free hit...

+1

[Melbournehammer]

I simply cant tell how i feel about this game. i was certain, absolutely certain we would beat st kilda. hawthorn are a different proposition. they flogged us earlier in the year but buddy and roughhead were a large part of that. i watched the game again recently and was amazed at how much space there was in the hawthorn forward line constantly and how crowded our forward line looked. to win we will have to destroy them around the stoppages, but more than that we will have to convert like we did last week. My heart says swans, but my head just says it will all come down to who is up for it on the night - but noting the three factors against us being 1. mcg, 2. they won more games than us for a reason, or maybe even several reasons, and 3. our form line (geelong excepted) really does have us not being able to win this sort of game.

[fanciful]

I tried to tell anybody who would listen last week that we were morals against a StKilda team whose formline was vastly overrated and both my Betfair and Centrebet accounts are much, much healthier for it.

Unfortunately, I'm much much less confident this week.

History is littered with Elimination final winners who falter the following week when reality bites against sides who confirm why they were top 4 and you weren't.

Admittedly, we're unlikely to ever get Hawthorn at a better time, Buddy-less and injuries to key players. Add to that the fact we are in pretty rare form. We can certainly win, but anybody who thinks the Hawks are going to be a pushover because Buddy won't be there only need to think back to last year when the Dogs were also severely undermanned thru injury, yet found a way to get over the line. I dare say the Hawks are a better side than the Dogs were.

Yes. This. Every word.

[mcs]

I'm not confident we can win, but I believe we can win, even if Buddy is playing. We have to hope Mumford monsters Bailey (who will play but will surely not be 100%) and that we dominate the clearances. We certainly have the tall timber to stretch their backline going forward, but we have to get it up there enough and ensure they don't have enough chances . I don't buy the whole MCG thing - we don't play well there, but I don't really buy it as a factor. If we play 4 solid quarters of footy, then I think we will win. We should be about $2.50 - that would be a fair representation of our chances I think.

[rojo]

I think the past four wins have given the Swans greater self-belief. Watching the 'oldies' who stood out on Sat. night such as Goodes, O'Keefe, Shaw, played with a real steeliness, determination and confidence. The 'youngies' who were playing in their first final have now got a game under their belt and that must be a plus (hoping that Hanners and Rohan are OK). I reckon if they run out on Friday night refusing to be intimidated by the situation and believing they can win, they have the form to do it.

[Yuri H]

Like others I'm nervous about this one - we're still pulling that 3rd quarter nap thing, letting St Kilda give us a fright in an otherwise great great game, and even against a depleted Hawks if we don't play 4 quarters we're sunk. If we raise for Goodes' 300th - for the whole game - we have a fighting chance.