Swans play Moneyball

[Bas]

From Fox sports news

http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/sydney-swans-reap-the-rewards-of-the-recruiting-philosophy-explored-in-brad-pitts-new-movie-moneyball/story-e6frf33l-1226192182692

There is a little bit there also on the trial run with video footage.

For those interested in what's happening at the Showground. Was there yesterday for Equitana and the development is looking really good. I spoke to one of the RAS people and she said that the ground was only extended 10 metres into the hill area and now appears to be longer than the SCG but with the same width. The new stands are coming along and it will be a great ground to watch games from.

Apart from GWS, all local sporting teams will benefit as they will be using it as well. Some NAB cup games there for the Swans would be great but obviously not next year as the ground won't be finished in time.

[ugg]

The link between the Swans and the A's are quite tenuous, but understandably easy for lazy journos to make. Billy Beane didn't eschew the draft system but instead he applied different criteria to ranking the prospective players than what was accepted thinking at the time, concentrating on objective rather subjective measurements. He didn't like picking high school players based on their physical potential but preferred players that had been through the college system who were more physically and mentally developed and while they had less scope to be a superstar, were also less likely to fail. In fact in the 2002 MLB Draft that was discussed in the Moneyball book, Oakland had 7 of the first 41 picks (keeping in mind there are about 30 teams from memory)

In addition, the Swans didn't have same salary issues that smaller MLB teams like Oakland had/have. All teams work under similar salary cap conditions (excluding concessions) which are directly paid by the AFL. As mentioned in the article and in the book, the Athletics were struggling to compete against huge teams like the Yankees who could comfortably afford to run a team with a salary cap three times as large as the A's had at the time.

Perhaps you could draw a link by saying that since most of the draftees are just out of high school, the Swans had no direct equivalent to directly picking older players. Therefore they were amenable to trading away their early draft picks for players who had been in the AFL system for a few years (Richards, Mattner, Shaw etc.) However, there has also been a distinct lack of recruitment of state league footballers during Roos' reign, where you could assert that the same theory should hold.

Having said all that, the book is a fantastic read (as is any book by Michael Lewis) and I'm looking forward to seeing the movie soon.

[Xie Shan]

Michael Lewis = seriously good writer. I haven't read Moneyball though.

I guess you could say that the difference with the Swans is that (as Richard Colless has stated many times before) because of the nature of the Sydney market, we couldn't afford to slide down the ladder to access the early picks, and it's harder to predict the likelihood that a player picked after the first twenty or so picks in the draft will become a success, so we were more likely to use alternative recruiting avenues. In the article Roos says himself that he wasn't much of a stats guy.

[satchmopugdog]

Stats.....smachts.

Love your work Xie Shan

[Primmy]

oh ugg, you statistician treasure you.

[giant]

Anyone caught the movie yet? Doesn't strike you when reading about it that it shouts movie material (tho there has been talk of one for a long time) - nevertheless, a damn good read.

[Xie Shan]

Stats.....smachts.

Love your work Xie Shan

aw, thanks Satch. right back at you!

[ShockOfHair]

I think the biggest success factor is that our strategy runs counter to the conventional wisdom that success is cyclical. Clubs are focused more on unknown 17-year-olds than seasoned players so there's a lot more hidden value to tap. With the arrival of the new teams that's changing, though still largely true.

It also helps that our recruiters seem to have a a sharp eye for potential. Few would've picked Rhyce Shaw to come second in the Skilton. Plus the stable club culture and our good record in supporting players helps us get hold of the players we target.

[Big Al]

Saw the film today.

It was terrific and thoroughly entertaining. My doppelg?nger, Brad Pitt, was very believable and did a marvellous job.

It's a wonderful story of adaptation. When conventional wisdom isn't right for your particular circumstance you need to think outside the square. This is what Billy Beans did and he changed the face of baseball by doing so. So much so that most ball clubs now adopt his methods of recruitment.

I thoroughly recommend this movie.

[Dosser]

Saw the film today.

It was terrific and thoroughly entertaining. My doppelg?nger, Brad Pitt, was very believable and did a marvellous job.

It's a wonderful story of adaptation. When conventional wisdom isn't right for your particular circumstance you need to think outside the square. This is what Billy Beans did and he changed the face of baseball by doing so. So much so that most ball clubs now adopt his methods of recruitment.

I thoroughly recommend this movie.

How many Fevs do you give it out of 5?

[Bas]

Saw the film today.

I thoroughly recommend this movie.

Fess up, you only saw it to see Brad! I'll go to see it on your recommendation Big Al but won't look at Brad though. You'll have me eating quiche next.

[Big Al]

Fess up, you only saw it to see Brad! I'll go to see it on your recommendation Big Al but won't look at Brad though. You'll have me eating quiche next.

Considering looking at Brad is like looking into a mirror I've always admired him.

... and I eat Quiche... What's your point??

[Primmy]

eKimbled the book (I am SO 21st century I can't stand it), so am quietly working into it. Let you know what I think, bet you can't wait.

I see Brad Pitt when I look at you BA.....under certain weather conditions....

[Wardy]

I see Brad Pitt when I look at you BA.....under certain weather conditions....

And here's too you Mrs Robinson ?

[giant]

I caught the movie on Monday, and found it, like baseball, a little slow at times. I remember reading at the time I was reading the book how they were going to make it into a movie (this was many many years ago) and thinking at the time "how the hell do you make a movie out of that?" The answer is not so well. Anyways, don't want to completely bag it but the book is way better.