Best XX11 for 2012

[wolftone57]

I can see where BRB is coming from and, on balance, I agree with him. Team balance dictates that you can't play Reg, LRT, Ted, Marty and AJ all at once in defence. AJ had a fantastic first year and hopefully he will continue to improve but the rest have the runs on the board and are all currently better players than Johnson. Bear in mind that LRT was injured for the first half of the year and then played ruck / forward for most of the rest. He came back into defence at the end of the year when Reg was unavailable.

I know not all will agree with this opinion, but for me LRT is the first tall defender picked so long as he is fit. His extra height and reach distinguishes him from our other defenders, and he is the one most equipped to play on resting ruckmen, which are more prevalent now in forward lines than ever before.

Ted and Reg are more proven as key defenders, Marty is more proven as a versatile defensive utility, and of course, we need spots for Shaw, Smith and probably at least one more true HBFer.

It is possible that one of the above will lose form, or AJ will improve rapidly such that he forces them out of the team as the season goes on. Or Longmire might find a spot up forward for AJ if our forward line continues to be dysfunctional. But based on exposed form, I find it hard to fit Johnson into our best 22 at this stage.

However, injuries to some players are almost inevitable and it is still likely that Johnson will get plenty of opportunities for senior footy in 2012. Hopefully he can continue to improve to the point where he does force one of the others out of the team. Ted and Marty may only have a year or two left in them anyway, given their ages.

Liz I doubt Shaw will play permanent defense next year. He didn't this year and I can't see that changing. Too many clangers to be a true defender. He played a great stopping role last year on ball or as a defensive forward and did well.

[Hartijon]

Johnson had a great year and would have to go backwards dramatically for him to not get a spot in our 22 next year. Didn't put a foot wrong and should only improve on last year. I dont understand how you dont rate him BRB, his influence as a 1st year player was equal to or greater than any other 1st year player and many ( or most) 2nd year players in our side.

Correct asessment IMO.He will be in our starting 22! Obviously highly rated by Longmire and thats the opinion that matters. If you aim to get balance by dropping a star youngster who hasn't put a foot wrong then you will have a balanced team but a team that is not going forward.Bad Idea!

[Chilcott]

Interesting discussion about AJ. Personally, I believe he is in our best 22 and would pick him ahead of LRT.

With Reg & Richards our key backmen, AJ fits the bill to pick up the 3rd tall. My starting backline would be (depending on match-ups:

Johnson Richards Smith
Mattner Grundy Shaw

Then you've got players like LRT, Malceski, Armstrong, who are not far off.

[wolftone57]

Interesting discussion about AJ. Personally, I believe he is in our best 22 and would pick him ahead of LRT.

With Reg & Richards our key backmen, AJ fits the bill to pick up the 3rd tall. My starting backline would be (depending on match-ups:

Johnson Richards Smith
Mattner Grundy Shaw

Then you've got players like LRT, Malceski, Armstrong, who are not far off.

I will repeat myself in the risk of sounding boring. Rhyce will not play back. He will be in the 22 but not back. He will play a stopper role either as defensive forward or on ball. I believe Armstrong has come in as a replacement for Rhyce on the flank and eventually when Marty retires probably Jordan Lockyer may fit into a Key and Gary Rohan play a role similar to the role that Andrew McLeod played for Adelaide.

[liz]

I will repeat myself in the risk of sounding boring. Rhyce will not play back. He will be in the 22 but not back. He will play a stopper role either as defensive forward or on ball. I believe Armstrong has come in as a replacement for Rhyce on the flank and eventually when Marty retires probably Jordan Lockyer may fit into a Key and Gary Rohan play a role similar to the role that Andrew McLeod played for Adelaide.

Make sure you remember to email Longmire just in case he doesn't know.

[Chilcott]

I will repeat myself in the risk of sounding boring. Rhyce will not play back. He will be in the 22 but not back. He will play a stopper role either as defensive forward or on ball. I believe Armstrong has come in as a replacement for Rhyce on the flank and eventually when Marty retires probably Jordan Lockyer may fit into a Key and Gary Rohan play a role similar to the role that Andrew McLeod played for Adelaide.

You may be right Wolftone. However, if we find that Armstrong doesn't make it, who would you play in the backline instead of Shaw?

My preference is for Rohan to play on the wing or forward.

[Cygnus]

This would me my starting 22 (subject to fitness) in some cases taking into account development but leaving more or less all well-performing senior players. Left bar = height indicator, number = age on April 1, figures below table = team averages. I'd leave LRT out until Richards or Grundy loses form, it would be mad not to develop Johnson after his performance last year.

team1.png

As a side note:

team2.png

Even if you take out the 5 ageing players it's not like we'd field a crap side. Not a guaranteed top 8 finish perhaps, but more talent than most bottom 8 (or bottom 10 whatever) sides in my opinion.

team.zip

(In case someone else likes to play with spread sheets...)

[rojo]

If LRT is fit and back to his best I would say he has to be included in the backline. Having just read the article 'Game makers' on AFl.com, two of the ten players featured were Jason Cloke and Lance Franklin, and who were they playing in the games in which they were said to have starred and were match winners? The Swans. However I wouldn't like to see AJ, a potential star of the future, miss out. Hmmm - problem!

By the way Jude was one of the players featured in the same article for his game against West Coast early in the season.

[wolftone57]

Make sure you remember to email Longmire just in case he doesn't know.

It was Longmire who swung Shaw into attack as a defensive forward last year Liz. He then used him as a tagger which was good because he hurt sides with his long delivery. He went back late to play on small forwards who moved down the ground. That is about the only reason I can think of Liz that Longmire would play him back. Let's be honest he sometimes runs too fast and forgets to think. If he can get the speed of his legs in coordination with his brain he could be good back there who knows but I believe he is just too great a risk for a full time backman.

[aardvark]

I will repeat myself in the risk of sounding boring. Rhyce will not play back.

That's a fairly adventurous statement on your part wolfie. You giving odds on that by any chance ?????

[wolftone57]

If he plays back it would be a mistake unless he plays on a mover. In other words a player with the lisence to rove like Stevie J at the Cats is now. Stevie J is more dangerous as a mobile forward so they let him go where he wants. Rhyce can play on this type because he has super endurance. But he can also alternate with another player like Nick Smith.

[Far Reach]

Perhaps Rhyce is a more special HBF than some give him credit for here. He was an essential element to last year's game plan - a role that Kennelly proved previously- he'll be needed to rove defense in 2012 unless a player steps the role in 2012. There's possibilities but to this point their consistency is unproven.

[BSA5]

I disagree that you can have all four in the side. Too big, and also, too many defenders. How many times last year on here we're we saying, Longmire come on we can't kick any goals if half the side are defenders. Mattner provides cover for Richards. I don't think LRT should be used in the ruck again when we have Seaby and Pyke and White. If Grundy was having a shocker, I'd rather we move Reid back and have a smaller forward line, than have Johnson in the team just in case someones playing poorly. We need to back in the guys, and pick a balanced side.

Wait, Mattner provides cover for Richards? Really? You'd like to see Mattner playing as a key defender? He's done it a couple of times in a pinch, but only when we've had absolutely no other options.

Mattner is a HBF. According to you, Johnson and Mattner are similar players. On that basis, AJ wouldn't be a key defender, so LRT, Richards and Grundy won't affect AJ's place in the side.

Picking an unbalanced side is the product of picking too many players of one type who aren't versatile. That's not a problem with AJ or Mattner. Both are versatile. AJ can play key defence or as a HBF/small defender (never mind the fact that he played forward in u18s). Mattner can play as a HBF/small defender or as a wingman/HFF. Both can slot into the side easily, especially when you consider that Malceski can play on the wing, and Shaw can play anywhere, depending on the job required of him (HBF/small defender, winger, tagger, defensive forward).

The side could easily line up like this:

B: Smith, Richards, LRT
HB: Johnson, Grundy, Shaw
C: Mattner, Kennedy, Malceski
HF: McVeigh, Reid, O'Keefe
F: Pyke, Walsh, Bolton
R: Mumford, Goodes, Jack
I/C: Hannebery, Armstrong, McGlynn, Rohan

Smith and Johnson to take smalls.

I'm a big fan of Bird, but can't fit him into our best 22 for balance reasons, as he's not versatile enough. Will get plenty of chances though, as injuries will inevitably hit. Jude could slow down as well, Armstrong might be a failure, Malceski may never recover (I doubt it, I'm expecting/hoping for great things), and so on.

Point is, AJ is a versatile player, and even if he can't get a run as a key defender, he's good enough to get a go as a flanker, and that need not be at the expense of LRT, Richards, Grundy, Mattner or team balance.

[wolftone57]

Wait, Mattner provides cover for Richards? Really? You'd like to see Mattner playing as a key defender? He's done it a couple of times in a pinch, but only when we've had absolutely no other options.

Mattner is a HBF. According to you, Johnson and Mattner are similar players. On that basis, AJ wouldn't be a key defender, so LRT, Richards and Grundy won't affect AJ's place in the side.

Picking an unbalanced side is the product of picking too many players of one type who aren't versatile. That's not a problem with AJ or Mattner. Both are versatile. AJ can play key defence or as a HBF/small defender (never mind the fact that he played forward in u18s). Mattner can play as a HBF/small defender or as a wingman/HFF. Both can slot into the side easily, especially when you consider that Malceski can play on the wing, and Shaw can play anywhere, depending on the job required of him (HBF/small defender, winger, tagger, defensive forward).

The side could easily line up like this:

B: Smith, Richards, LRT
HB: Johnson, Grundy, Shaw
C: Mattner, Kennedy, Malceski
HF: McVeigh, Reid, O'Keefe
F: Pyke, Walsh, Bolton
R: Mumford, Goodes, Jack
I/C: Hannebery, Armstrong, McGlynn, Rohan

Smith and Johnson to take smalls.

I'm a big fan of Bird, but can't fit him into our best 22 for balance reasons, as he's not versatile enough. Will get plenty of chances though, as injuries will inevitably hit. Jude could slow down as well, Armstrong might be a failure, Malceski may never recover (I doubt it, I'm expecting/hoping for great things), and so on.

Point is, AJ is a versatile player, and even if he can't get a run as a key defender, he's good enough to get a go as a flanker, and that need not be at the expense of LRT, Richards, Grundy, Mattner or team balance.

I agree and I think you are right about Jude. He plays with no concern for his own safety and therefore gets knocked around quite a bit. As a player gets older this takes its toll. Geelong treated Milburn with kid gloves in the last few years. Pinch hitting off the bench and resting him for a couple of weeks to get his body right. As we get older the bumps hurt a lot more and it is more difficult to recover every week in time for a game. Like younger players , older players need to be managed to get the best out of them.

[Ruck'n'Roll]

The side could easily line up like this:

B: Smith, Richards, LRT
HB: Johnson, Grundy, Shaw
C: Mattner, Kennedy, Malceski
HF: McVeigh, Reid, O'Keefe
F: Pyke, Walsh, Bolton
R: Mumford, Goodes, Jack
I/C: Hannebery, Armstrong, McGlynn, Rohan

Smith and Johnson to take smalls.

Backline
AJ is a budding tall and while his first season was brilliant, totally above expectations. So he may drop back a bit, in any case he's still a kid and does need some more work, particularly on his kicking (while his accuracy isn't brilliant, it's the David Spriggs style floaters that worry me.
While young keys often spend there formative years on a flank, it's usually more to avoid meeting key forward monsters rather than there suitability to match a small man. I don't think playing AJ on smalls is a very good starting option (a bit like playing Mattner on a tall really) at a pinch they can do that sort of role during a game. In any case unless predicated by our opponents I hope we don't see us playing 4 talls, it made us look slow and feeding LRT into the ruck did him or us no favours.

Forward line
It'll be interesting to see which 2 talls accompany Sam, I thought our best restults this year cam with Jessie and Spanky playing alongside Sam. Many people have very high expectations of Walsh, and the Footscray game suggested Pyke may be able to function up forward. Either way I just hope we retain that quota of 3 talls. Playing TDL at full forward was bonkers, and it certainly did him no favours.

But as you say The side could easily line up like this