Top 2..Is it that essential?

[Ludwig]

It's more about building to finals footy form than where we are on the ladder, which will be top 2 if we've got the form to seriously challenge. We have the perfect schedule to prove what we are capable of this season. We need to win against teams that have been out of form (next 2 games). We have to show we can beat Collingwood (at home at least) to be considered serious contenders. And then there is Hawthorne and Geelong at Simmonds. What better way to see where you're at.

[jono2707]

I'm sorry, but I seem to be missing something here.
I think it would be best if we finish at the top of the ladder; barring serious injury to the whole backline, there's no reason we can't do it.
Besides, I like the view from the top of the ladder.

Same here, but I guess some people get a bit giddy up here.....

[BSA5]

Crazy question.
It's pretty much essential to finish top 2 for a real chance to win the flag.
3 or 4 make you an outsider
5 - 8 makes you unlikely.
Kind of makes you realise that maybe the final 8 system is flawed.

I would have thought that of all people, a Swans fan would know that's bull@@@@. Wanna go back and check where we finished in 05 and 06?

Top 2 is an advantage, but to win the GF, we need to be able to win away (MCG) anyway, so it's really not that much of a big deal.

As for whether the top 8 system is flawed, I don't think so. It's only right that you get rewarded for your H&A form in the finals, otherwise what's the point of competing once a spot in the top 8 is guaranteed. And 5-8 may have no realistic chance of winning the flag, but that's because they're not in the top 4 teams to begin with, and they still have the opportunity to play finals football, which can be invaluable experience for the players and the coach.

[Bloody Hell]

Crazy question.
It's pretty much essential to finish top 2 for a real chance to win the flag.
3 or 4 make you an outsider
5 - 8 makes you unlikely.
Kind of makes you realise that maybe the final 8 system is flawed.

How is that?!?

The team that has been the best for the year is most likely to win the premiership. Sounds like it works to me.

[lwoggardner]

I agree with the OP and don't think it is strange at all. Everyone loves an underdog, and if the first few days of the Olympics have taught us anything the weight of expectation (or vertigo) can have a real impact. (Have the poms won anything yet?)

1/2 would be awesome and if we can carry our current momentum is entirely within reach. If we drop a couple we still have the opportunity to pick ourselves up and make a genuine assault on the flag from 3/4.

It might be a bit different from the dizzy heights our team has achieved going into round 19 but what do you think results would have been if you'd polled RWO at the start of the season with the question "If the swans finish 3/4 I would be..." ?
* more than happy
* just a little bit happy
* grumpy as

Of course what I want, and expect, to see is the Swans continue the current winning streak for 8 more games.

As for the final 8, the most commonly described flaw is there is no significant advantage to the minor premiers over 2nd because if results go to form the prelims are 1vs3 and 2vs4. However in this comp the difference between 1 and 2 can be more based on the "fixture" than genuinely earned.

[Cant turn right]

IIRC we got to both the 05-06 GFs from 3rd and 4th. Brisbane won 03 from outside the top 4. You don't have to finish 1 or 2 to win. There may be more recent eg.s but I can't remember.

[ScottH]

Here are all the GF results and ladder positions since 2000.

2011 Cats 2nd beat Pies 1st
2010 Pies 1st beat StK 3rd
2009 Cats 2nd beat StK 1st
2008 Haw 2nd beat Cats 1st
2007 Cats 1st beat PA 2nd
2006 Wc 1st beat Syd 4th
2005 Syd 3rd beat WC 2nd
2004 PA 1st beat BL 2nd
2003 BL 3rd beat Pies 2nd
2002 BL 2nd beat Pies 4th
2001 BL 2nd beat Ess 1st
2000 Ess 1st beat Mel 3rd


Finishing in 1st or 2nd seems to be the go, but finishing first is no guarantee!!
Only 2 teams from outside top 2 have won the GF.

[BillyRayCypress]

Here are all the GF results and ladder positions since 2000.

2011 Cats 2nd beat Pies 1st
2010 Pies 1st beat StK 3rd
2009 Cats 2nd beat StK 1st
2008 Haw 2nd beat Cats 1st
2007 Cats 1st beat PA 2nd
2006 Wc 1st beat Syd 4th
2005 Syd 3rd beat WC 2nd
2004 PA 1st beat BL 2nd
2003 BL 3rd beat Pies 2nd
2002 BL 2nd beat Pies 4th
2001 BL 2nd beat Ess 1st
2000 Ess 1st beat Mel 3rd


Finishing in 1st or 2nd seems to be the go, but finishing first is no guarantee!!
Only 2 teams from outside top 2 have won the GF.

So what you're saying Scott for those of us that are a bit slow. To win the Premiership, you have to win the last game of the year? I get it now, I get it.

[Cant turn right]

Thanks ScottH I stand corrected re Brisbane in 03, I think rather they lost their first finals game and had to do it the hard way.

[Cant turn right]

If there is a year where a team could come out of nowhere and get a GF spot I reckon it's this year. The top 4 has had a lot of movement during the middle rounds compared to the last couple of years where 1 or 2 have dominated all year.

[BSA5]

Finishing in 1st or 2nd seems to be the go, but finishing first is no guarantee!!
Only 2 teams from outside top 2 have won the GF.

On the other hand, 6 teams have made the GF from outside the top 2, and as far as I'm concerned, once you're in the GF anything can happen.

[Roscoe]

Obviously finishing top 2 gives the advantage of a home qualifying final.

It also brings added pressure and expectation.

To finish 3 or 4 means traveling first week... as the underdog.

Less expectation and pressure, and you're still guaranteed a 2nd chance.

Swans are good underdogs...think back to 2003 and 2005.

Obviously finishing 1 or 2 is fantastic....but I'll be more than happy finishing 3 or 4.

It would be great to finish 1st or 2nd and have a home final

It would be better to win that game and hopefully have a home preliminary (does it depend on the MCG contract stuff)

It would be even better again to win our hopefully home prelimin and be in the grand final the next week

Then the ultimate a repeat of 2005

sounds very simple

[BeeEmmAre]

The top eight system was changed after the 1997 debacle when Geelong finished second, lost to North in the first final and then had to travel to Adelaide for their semi after the Crows had finished fifth or sixth and won first up.
I believe the MCG contract changed after the Brisbane Lions had to play a home final against Melbourne at the MCG in the second week during their golden years. 2006 saw only two finals played in Melbourne before the GF after Sydney, West Coast, Adelaide and Fremantle all made the top four - they were the two elimination finals.

[ScottH]

So what you're saying Scott for those of us that are a bit slow. To win the Premiership, you have to win the last game of the year? I get it now, I get it.

That goes a long way to helping.

On the other hand, 6 teams have made the GF from outside the top 2, and as far as I'm concerned, once you're in the GF anything can happen.

Yep, go to be in it to win it!!

[jono2707]

I hope the players are taking it one week at a time........