Why we should be outright premierhip favourite

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  • barry
    Veterans List
    • Jan 2003
    • 8499

    Why we should be outright premierhip favourite

    We should be outright premiership favourite (especially if we win on saturday) because being a non-victorian side to be top (or top 2) we need to win a lot of games on the road which are much harder than at home.
    A similar positioned victorian side doesnt have to travel, with "away" games often being at their home ground and a neutral advantage.

    So for Sydney to be top, means we are as a team, better than all others by a bigger margin than 1 game and %.

    Except for Adelaide who are in the same boat as us travel wise.

    I fully expect Adelaide to finish top 2 with us, and they will then be equal favourites.

    Because we (and them) are dominant teams, we will both comfortably win our 2 home finals, and into the grand final.

    And this is where having Adelaide is great, because then the grand final is played at a neutral venue, and this is the key for us to have a much better chance of taking "grandfinalist" and raising it to "premier".


    What I'm saying is, in summary if a non-vic side makes top 2, is far more impressive than a vic side doing it.
  • longmile
    Crumber
    • Apr 2011
    • 3366

    #2
    Except Adelaide you have had an incredibly soft draw

    Comment

    • BillyRayCypress
      On the Rookie List
      • May 2012
      • 1379

      #3
      We're not because we have eddiewood, hawks and cats to play. So no one in the media is expecting us to win all three if any.

      A few years back the Demons were on top of the ladder and they went into free fall over the last 5 rounds and only just made the 8.
      Nothing like a good light bulb moment.

      Comment

      • Plugger1300
        Warming the Bench
        • Feb 2010
        • 310

        #4
        Certainly wouldn't call Adelaide a dominant team. I believe they will finish top or 2nd but are more than realistic chance of going out in straight sets. I can't see them beating the Hawks/Pies in round one of the finals. They then could come up against the Cats in the Elimination final. Not even convinced they will beat Freo this week.

        Comment

        • msb
          On the Rookie List
          • Mar 2006
          • 827

          #5
          Originally posted by Plugger1300
          Certainly wouldn't call Adelaide a dominant team. I believe they will finish top or 2nd but are more than realistic chance of going out in straight sets. I can't see them beating the Hawks/Pies in round one of the finals. They then could come up against the Cats in the Elimination final. Not even convinced they will beat Freo this week.
          I agree, their draw has got them to where they are, they will falter in the finals IMO, even with games in adelaide. Would love to meet them in the GF but I fear it will either be against collingwood or the hawks if we were to make it. Wow that would be fair wouldnt it, both of those teams would get a 'home' GF.

          Comment

          • barry
            Veterans List
            • Jan 2003
            • 8499

            #6
            If Sydney & Adelaide finish top 2 (quite likely given draw) then I'd like to see the odds for a Swans v Adelaide GF.

            If juicy, I'm onboard based on the logic of my OP.

            Adelaide may have had a soft draw, but they still have to travel and win, so IMO, still as hard as any vic side like collingwood.

            Comment

            • Industrial Fan
              Goodesgoodesgoodesgoodes!
              • Aug 2006
              • 3318

              #7
              Not sure why any swans supporter would want to meet Adelaide in any final. Regardless of form we are their bunnies and we'll lose.
              He ate more cheese, than time allowed

              Comment

              • barry
                Veterans List
                • Jan 2003
                • 8499

                #8
                If we are adelaides bunnies, then we are also collingwoods bunnies.

                In 2012, we are no bodies bunnies.

                Comment

                • Swansongster
                  Senior Player
                  • Sep 2008
                  • 1264

                  #9
                  Originally posted by barry
                  If Sydney & Adelaide finish top 2 (quite likely given draw) then I'd like to see the odds for a Swans v Adelaide GF.

                  If juicy, I'm onboard based on the logic of my OP.

                  Adelaide may have had a soft draw, but they still have to travel and win, so IMO, still as hard as any vic side like collingwood.
                  The Adelaide/Sydney quinella is paying $8 on SportsTAB. A bit short for mine. Would probbly get better with corporate bookies or on Betfair.

                  Comment

                  • Industrial Fan
                    Goodesgoodesgoodesgoodes!
                    • Aug 2006
                    • 3318

                    #10
                    We have once again shown we are the Crows bunnies in 2012.

                    At least we havent been consistently beaten by Collingwood on the SCG like we have by Adelaide. Even when they've been crap Adelaide have beaten us.

                    I stated elsewhere that we need to beat the Pies this week so we have two teams in the top 4 that we have winning form against.

                    There has been alot said this year about the Melbourne media underrating us, and I think if we have a case then Adelaide has a lay down mizarre. Their ladder position is dismissed by all and sundry as due to a soft draw, but they are better than that - as we saw. They've had some cheap scalps, but then so have the swans.
                    He ate more cheese, than time allowed

                    Comment

                    • Plugger1300
                      Warming the Bench
                      • Feb 2010
                      • 310

                      #11
                      There away wins have been fattened out with wins against GWS and GC. They beat Carlton, Freo and Us away.
                      Apart from that they have been outclassed when travelling. Soundly beaten at home by the Pies as well.
                      Only fell in against a undermanned Bombers outfit

                      Comment

                      • wolftone57
                        Veterans List
                        • Aug 2008
                        • 5857

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Industrial Fan
                        Not sure why any swans supporter would want to meet Adelaide in any final. Regardless of form we are their bunnies and we'll lose.
                        Why would a Swans Supporter want to meet Pies or Hawks on their home ground. Cats also play there quite a bit so a big advantage to them. The teams who are neutral on that ground for us are Crows, Dockers & Eagles and I think I prefer to play any of them before the Melbourne teams. What's more coming from Sydney we are supposed to have a natural hatered for anything Melbourne anyway

                        Comment

                        • Industrial Fan
                          Goodesgoodesgoodesgoodes!
                          • Aug 2006
                          • 3318

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Plugger1300
                          Only fell in against a undermanned Bombers outfit
                          So did we.

                          No doubt they've had a good draw, but so have the Kangaroos.

                          They punished Geelong. Beat Carlton before the wheels fell off. Freo are no easy beat.

                          Their two main forward targets have been in and out of the team all year as well.

                          I certainly dont want to face Adelaide in the finals. I'd be much happier for a Melbourne team to have the limelight in the leadup.
                          He ate more cheese, than time allowed

                          Comment

                          • Industrial Fan
                            Goodesgoodesgoodesgoodes!
                            • Aug 2006
                            • 3318

                            #14
                            Originally posted by wolftone57
                            Why would a Swans Supporter want to meet Pies or Hawks on their home ground. Cats also play there quite a bit so a big advantage to them. The teams who are neutral on that ground for us are Crows, Dockers & Eagles and I think I prefer to play any of them before the Melbourne teams. What's more coming from Sydney we are supposed to have a natural hatered for anything Melbourne anyway
                            Eagles would be the best possible draw, but they wont make it that far.

                            Freo are improving but unlikely to get that far either.

                            On the whole, I'd be most confident playing Hawthorn in the GF.
                            He ate more cheese, than time allowed

                            Comment

                            • R-1
                              Senior Player
                              • Aug 2005
                              • 1042

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Swansongster
                              The Adelaide/Sydney quinella is paying $8 on SportsTAB. A bit short for mine. Would probbly get better with corporate bookies or on Betfair.
                              12 bucks on Centrebet

                              Comment

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