We wont win the premiership this year...

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  • liz
    Veteran
    Site Admin
    • Jan 2003
    • 16773

    #46
    Originally posted by barry
    There is no one in the 5th to 8th who worries me in Sydney, so even considering we've lost 3 from the last 4, I think we will make it to a prelim.
    s
    But to go any further we need to find some form, and need a bit of luck with injury.
    Speaking of which, the Guerra injury to Hawthorn is pretty significant in a team whose defense is suspect.
    Geelong can beat us in Sydney, no doubt. Less concerned about North, Freo and West Coast.

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    • neilfws
      Senior Player
      • Aug 2009
      • 1826

      #47
      Originally posted by barry
      even considering we've lost 3 from the last 4, I think we will make it to a prelim.
      I spent the morning playing around with some statistics using AFL Tables.

      It turns out that the GF has been won only twice by teams which dropped the last 3 games of the H&A season: Melbourne in 1960, Fitzroy in 1916. Although Fitzroy lost 9 in a row that year and won only 2 before finals, so I guess the rules were a bit different...

      Anyway, take your pick from (1) history is against us or (2) it can be done!
      Last edited by neilfws; 4 September 2012, 11:19 AM.

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      • Swansongster
        Senior Player
        • Sep 2008
        • 1264

        #48
        Originally posted by neilfws
        I spent the morning playing around with some statistics using AFL Tables.

        It turns out that the GF has been won only twice by teams which dropped the last 3 games of the H&A season: Melbourne in 1960, Fitzroy in 1916. So take your pick from (1) history is against us or (2) it can be done!
        We didn't drop the last three. Would be interesting to know progress of teams that dropped three of last four H&A games.

        Comment

        • Go Swannies
          Veterans List
          • Sep 2003
          • 5697

          #49
          Originally posted by neilfws
          I spent the morning playing around with some statistics using AFL Tables.

          It turns out that the GF has been won only twice by teams which dropped the last 3 games of the H&A season: Melbourne in 1960, Fitzroy in 1916. Although Fitzroy lost 9 in a row that year and won only 2 before finals, so I guess the rules were a bit different...

          Anyway, take your pick from (1) history is against us or (2) it can be done!
          Didn't we only lose the last two - the Dogs were wedged between the Pies and Hawks?

          Comment

          • msb
            On the Rookie List
            • Mar 2006
            • 827

            #50
            Originally posted by liz
            Geelong can beat us in Sydney, no doubt. Less concerned about North, Freo and West Coast.
            They sure can and nearly did earlier in the year....it will be a very very nervous week if we were to drop the adelaide game and they beat freo, we would meet in a semi I believe at ANZ. Dont want to think about that, just win this week!!

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            • neilfws
              Senior Player
              • Aug 2009
              • 1826

              #51
              Originally posted by Go Swannies
              Didn't we only lose the last two - the Dogs were wedged between the Pies and Hawks?
              Yes, you and Swansongster are quite right; the last 4 are LWLL. Time to recalculate...

              ...OK - makes no difference, those same teams are the only ones to drop at least 3 from the last 4 (Fitzroy 1916 LLLL, Melbourne 1960 WLLL) and win the GF.
              Last edited by neilfws; 4 September 2012, 11:38 AM.

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              • BillyRayCypress
                On the Rookie List
                • May 2012
                • 1379

                #52
                Originally posted by msb
                They sure can and nearly did earlier in the year....it will be a very very nervous week if we were to drop the adelaide game and they beat freo, we would meet in a semi I believe at ANZ. Dont want to think about that, just win this week!!
                Then if Swans can beat Cats it will be Hawks in the Prelim at the MCG.

                Lose this Saturday and its a very long way back.
                Nothing like a good light bulb moment.

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                • Melbournehammer
                  Senior Player
                  • May 2007
                  • 1815

                  #53
                  I don't know - one of the happiest days of my life was a semi final between Geelong and Sydney. I remember driving up all day, getting to the ground pretty early. Being shocked at how wet it was. Going ballistic at the umpires for a ridiculous free against crouch for shepparding mooney, feeling that we were still in it even though done by nearly four goals and then just joy afterwards...

                  I was certain we'd get done by the saints the week after back here in Melbourne, so I just thought it was one of those nights that I would be able to take away in yet another good season...

                  I think we can beat the cats...in fact I reckon we can beat anyone bar hawthorn at the Mcg. We just need a bit of luck go our way.

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                  • swansrule100
                    The quarterback
                    • May 2004
                    • 4538

                    #54
                    Originally posted by msb
                    They sure can and nearly did earlier in the year....it will be a very very nervous week if we were to drop the adelaide game and they beat freo, we would meet in a semi I believe at ANZ. Dont want to think about that, just win this week!!
                    Geelong 8 wins 7 losses away from simmonds stadium, they are not unbeatable.
                    Theres not much left to say

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                    • SydAFLFan
                      On the Rookie List
                      • Aug 2010
                      • 40

                      #55
                      This is further supported with Geelong only playing interstate and out-of-form Melbourne sides in Geelong this year. This year it was Richmond, Melbourne, GWS, Port, Adelaide, West Coast, Bulldogs and Sydney. It helps them win some key games against the interstate sides who have to travel that little bit further out of Melbourne. If we were to play them again they lose that advantage.

                      Comment

                      • bloodbrother
                        Warming the Bench
                        • Sep 2012
                        • 111

                        #56
                        Don't agree with this thread, i think we are a huge chance to win the flag ..i believe we are a class above adelaide who have been flattered by the easiest draw in the history of draws , i think that class difference will show on saturday afternoon..do you really think that the swans would be rolled by brisbane lions ?? as these guys were not so long ago..the bloods will bring their fierce tackling to the crows and they won't know what happened ..swans by 4 goals plus..

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                        • wolftone57
                          Veterans List
                          • Aug 2008
                          • 5857

                          #57
                          I don't think we will win the flag this year but I think we will next year. In saying that I think we will give it a ding dong go!

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                          • Hazcam
                            On the Rookie List
                            • Jun 2007
                            • 324

                            #58
                            We won the clearances convincingly out of the middle and the crows couldn't score multiple goals at all throughout game.

                            Preventing this against hawthorn is the key as I'm positive they will be in the gf

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                            • Dirtyburt
                              Suspended by the MRP
                              • Apr 2012
                              • 853

                              #59
                              Originally posted by wolftone57
                              I don't think we will win the flag this year but I think we will next year. In saying that I think we will give it a ding dong go!
                              I love anything that involves ding dongs, but maybe that is just me

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                              • Wardy
                                The old Boiler!
                                • Sep 2003
                                • 6676

                                #60
                                Well who'd have thought it huh? With a weeks rest to get things right and either north, WC or the pies to play (and think they will bash the crap out of each other just to get the chance next week to make it up here) I think we might just do it !!!
                                I used to be indecisive, but now I'm not so sure..................
                                Chickens drink - but they don't pee!
                                AGE IS ONLY IMPORTANT FOR TWO THINGS - WINE & CHEESE!

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