Moneyball Theory

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  • Swanno
    On the Rookie List
    • Sep 2012
    • 34

    Moneyball Theory

    After reading about the moneyball theory and observing how our recruiters go about their business in the draft, could it be that our recruiters are using the same technique that many baseball clubs are now using in order to win games and ultimately championships.

    For those who are unaware of what the theory entails, in basic terms, you get players who are unwanted or on the cheap that have statistics to show that they are capable of filling a position on your team, then you sell them for a profit (however I know that is not how the AFL runs things). For example (in baseball) a player may get a lot of base hits, but his attitude may stink, a team who needs players who get base hits picks him up on the cheap, molds them into a good player with a better attitude, while increasing their base hit stats and perhaps sell him on for a profit.

    In the AFL, teams may look for stats like possessions per game, clearances, speed and hitting targets and marks and goals.

    Three examples I can think off the top of my head are Josh Kennedy, Lewis Jetta and Mitch Morton (potentially).

    Now, before we got Kennedy, it was noticeable, in some games, that our clearances were not as competitive as they are now. For a while we only had mostly Jude getting in and under trying to clear the ball, after Kirky's retirement. It is possible that our recruiters saw this as an area we needed to strengthen and went for what turned out to be one of the trades of the season in Josh Kennedy, which ultimately upped our clearances. Moneyball theory at work perhaps?

    With Lewis Jetta it was simple, our side lacked speed and after missing out on Cyril Rioli, I think, we went for the next best option, one of the fastest, if not the fastest (after seeing him run down dangerfield) player in the game. Together with his stats for field kicking, which I assume must've been high, given the amount of times he hits the target, he was almost the complete player. It is possible that our recruiters focused on those stats in particular when looking for a wide running midfield player.

    Lastly, Mitch Morton is player with huge wraps on him as a forward, bar his defensive work. Many of you would agree, that since Barry Hall and perhaps Bradshaw (though he was patchy as well on occassion) we have really lacked a strong KP forward who can mark and kick and bag on any given day. Morton was unwanted at Richmond, due to, I assume, attitude, however, perhaps our recruiters disregarded his defensive weaknesses and focused on the stats that mattered as a forward and that is the ability to mark and kick goals. The defensive side will come for Morton if he wants it enough and I think he showed us glimpses of what he can do.

    Anyway, sorry for the long post, just thought it might be an interesting topic, its very exciting to see our new crop of "recycled" players and young guns come through playing with the bloods spirit and we can be assured that our recruiters know what they are looking for.
  • 707
    Veterans List
    • Aug 2009
    • 6204

    #2
    Kennedy was not ''one of the trades of the season", he has turned out to be one of the trades of the decade :-)

    We didn't "miss" out on Rioli at Pick 12 in the 2007 ND, we took Vespremi with Pick 11 :-(

    But yes you are on the money, we recruit very much to fill a specific need, and recruit brilliantly, some other clubs chase anyone they think they can get.

    The Natonal Draft is like that, when your first pick comes around at say 12, do you take th next best player or if you really need a KPF do you take the next best one of those who may only be ranked in say the low 20s? Causes angst at every draft table I'd say.

    Comment

    • dimelb
      pr. dim-melb; m not f
      • Jun 2003
      • 6889

      #3
      Interesting first post Swanno, and welcome aboard.
      As you point out, we don't value-add then sell on, but go for specific needs. And in the cases you mention, it has worked brilliantly (I'm happy to include Morton, he's giving himself the best chance he has). Like shopping with a list instead of just wandering around the supermarket and seeing what takes your fancy.
      He reminds him of the guys, close-set, slow, and never rattled, who were play-makers on the team. (John Updike, seeing Josh Kennedy in a crystal ball)

      Comment

      • Doctor
        Bay 29
        • Sep 2003
        • 2757

        #4
        Great post Swanno. You're partly right on Moneyball theory but it was more to do with the theory that a player who is patient at the plate will be patient at whatever level they play at. You draw a lot of walks in the minors, for example, you're going to draw them in the majors. The theory rewrote conventional wisdom about run scoring in baseball, which has always been a bit romanticised. You steal bases, sacrifice an out to advance a runner etc. This theory was that the most important factor in scoring runs is outs. Don't give up an out and you're a better chance of scoring a run. So, players who were being overlooked because they were too slow, or had an 'ugly' technique, were in fact very effective at getting on base. Once you're on base, your chances of getting home skyrocket. This was all backed up with a whole bunch of stats to prove what the dudes who came up with it were saying. They met with a lot of resistance because they weren't 'baseball people' and thus didn't understand the 'feel' of the game. The truth probably lay somewhere in the middle but it was a theory that worked spectacularly well at Oakland, and nearly won them a World Series.

        Jetta was, for us, a relatively high draft pick so I don't know if the theory can be applied to him. I think it does have a lot of merit in being applied to Ted Richards though. Your example of Mitch Morton is closer to being "on the money" in my opinion but I don't think he has played enough games for us yet for us to be able to say that he has been a success. Signs are encouraging though!
        Today's a draft of your epitaph

        Comment

        • Dosser
          Just wild about Harry
          • Mar 2011
          • 1833

          #5
          From memory, Essendon had lined up to pick Jetta at 10, but shocked everyone by picking Melksham. Jetta was always highly rated so I'm not sure if he is the best example here.

          Comment

          • sharp9
            Senior Player
            • Jan 2003
            • 2508

            #6
            Welcome Swanno....the Moneyball theory was, in fact, the one implemented by Roosey. He as talked about this many times. That is the reason we did not draft any talls AT ALL with first or second round draft picks for nigh on 10 years (excepting Lewis Johnston.......which just goes to prove the theory!!!)

            Roosey insisted on using low picks for "known quantity" talls - hence Ted Richards (#19) and Darren Jolly (#15).....when everyone else said we were paying too much and we could be missing out on a superstar with a top 20 pick. :-)

            Lynden Dunne anyone? Courtney Dempsey has been OK but he don't match 8 years of Ted (so far!!)

            Having said that we would have taken Pav, Buddy, Roughy, Kreuzer, Pattinson, Naitanui, Watts or Hurley if we had had a top 5 pick, surely

            But Jarrad Grant??? Mmmm
            "I'll acknowledge there are more talented teams in the competition but I won't acknowledge that there is a better team in the competition" Paul Roos March 2005

            Comment

            • TheAgent
              Avid Training Watcher
              • Feb 2012
              • 76

              #7
              It is well documented that the Swans use the 'moneyball' philosophy in recruiting players Swans reap rewards of Moneyball | Fox Sports

              Comment

              • Industrial Fan
                Goodesgoodesgoodesgoodes!
                • Aug 2006
                • 3317

                #8
                One of the only exceptions since the early mid 00s is "Doughnut Ball" Chambers.

                Of course there have been a couple of other trades that havent worked, but we've been extremely successful with rebirthing players.

                From the weekend, all of:

                Ted
                Marty
                Mummy
                Kennedy
                Mcglynn
                Morton
                Shaw

                Were traded from another AFL team:

                Pyke
                Jack
                BLT

                were recruited from unorthodox backgrounds and developed by the Swans.
                He ate more cheese, than time allowed

                Comment

                • Dosser
                  Just wild about Harry
                  • Mar 2011
                  • 1833

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Industrial Fan
                  One of the only exceptions since the early mid 00s is "Doughnut Ball" Chambers.

                  Of course there have been a couple of other trades that havent worked, but we've been extremely successful with rebirthing players.

                  From the weekend, all of:

                  Ted
                  Marty
                  Mummy
                  Kennedy
                  Mcglynn
                  Morton
                  Shaw

                  Were traded from another AFL team:

                  Pyke
                  Jack
                  BLT

                  were recruited from unorthodox backgrounds and developed by the Swans.
                  Pretty much right except Jack played juniors at Pennant Hills and LRT played with North Shore, so the Swans didnt just pluck them from League and Union.

                  Comment

                  • 707
                    Veterans List
                    • Aug 2009
                    • 6204

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Dosser
                    From memory, Essendon had lined up to pick Jetta at 10, but shocked everyone by picking Melksham. Jetta was always highly rated so I'm not sure if he is the best example here.
                    It was thought WCE were going to take Jetta with Pick 7 but went for Brad Sheppard. Lucky for us he drifted into our clutches as Pick 14

                    Comment

                    • Panttz
                      Warming the Bench
                      • May 2011
                      • 231

                      #11
                      Bloody good movie too :P

                      Comment

                      • Swanno
                        On the Rookie List
                        • Sep 2012
                        • 34

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Doctor
                        Great post Swanno. You're partly right on Moneyball theory but it was more to do with the theory that a player who is patient at the plate will be patient at whatever level they play at. You draw a lot of walks in the minors, for example, you're going to draw them in the majors. The theory rewrote conventional wisdom about run scoring in baseball, which has always been a bit romanticised. You steal bases, sacrifice an out to advance a runner etc. This theory was that the most important factor in scoring runs is outs. Don't give up an out and you're a better chance of scoring a run. So, players who were being overlooked because they were too slow, or had an 'ugly' technique, were in fact very effective at getting on base. Once you're on base, your chances of getting home skyrocket. This was all backed up with a whole bunch of stats to prove what the dudes who came up with it were saying. They met with a lot of resistance because they weren't 'baseball people' and thus didn't understand the 'feel' of the game. The truth probably lay somewhere in the middle but it was a theory that worked spectacularly well at Oakland, and nearly won them a World Series.

                        !
                        Thanks Doctor, your explanation of the theory sounds a lot better than mine and more accurate too, I was just focusing on more of the stats based part of the theory, I think we have applied it well over the past few years

                        Comment

                        • Swanno
                          On the Rookie List
                          • Sep 2012
                          • 34

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Dosser
                          From memory, Essendon had lined up to pick Jetta at 10, but shocked everyone by picking Melksham. Jetta was always highly rated so I'm not sure if he is the best example here.
                          Ahh, fair enough dosser, all I remember about jetta's draft pick was that a lot of people on here were very excited about him, with good reason too it seems, wasn'y aware of the dons interest, they got the wrong jetta it seems

                          Comment

                          • Swanno
                            On the Rookie List
                            • Sep 2012
                            • 34

                            #14
                            Originally posted by TheAgent
                            It is well documented that the Swans use the 'moneyball' philosophy in recruiting players Swans reap rewards of Moneyball | Fox Sports
                            I wasnt aware of this, i swear, i thought i might have a picked up on something, haha. No thats really interesting and we are using the theory to full effect it seems, perhaps we may see our recruiters going for more talls for the forward line in the future

                            Comment

                            • Big Al
                              Veterans List
                              • Feb 2005
                              • 7007

                              #15
                              Moneyball Theory

                              Welcome to the site Swanno. Terrific post and an interesting read. Our trading record is quite amazing isn't it.
                              ..And the Swans are the Premiers...The Ultimate Team...The Ultimate Warriors. They have overcome the highly fancied Hawks in brilliant style. Sydney the 2012 Premiers - Gerard Whately ABC

                              Here it is Again! - Huddo SEN

                              Comment

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