Why?

[Swanno]

Maybe I'm just a cockeyed optimist but just because it's never been won from 5th or 6th doesn't mean it can never be. As I have said before, with the exception of Simmonds Stadium were there is no finals anyway, there isn't a ground in this league that we haven't won and won comfortably at in the past two seasons so we just might have to be trail blazers this year, while there's life there's hope.
I'll be keeping the faith for a few more weeks!

I'd like to think myself as the same cockeyed optimist, but everyone here has made valid points. I'm really surprised at the stat of "if you finish lower than 4th" it seems you're not going to go far or as far in the finals as the others who finished above you. Someone said Freo have a number of players out as well. While I can respect that (and I know you were only playing devil's advocate) I honestly think if it came to it, we could beat Freo in a finals scenario. No doubt they are a fantastic side, I just think we might sneak it in a close one.

On the issue of the Hawks and Geelong, well obviously these are the two teams that worry me the most. If you watch them, they are lightening fast, and as others have highlighted we aren't really the fastest pack going around. When we play these two we're going to have to seriously man up and use our footy smarts to try and get ahead of the game, otherwise I see them just burning us through the midfield. However, having said that, I am optimistic about picking up at least 4 points from the last two, and we really need to if we're going to all the way this year. Anyway, as I stated, I believe this team can pull out a big game at any time and against any team, and if anything, its going to be an exciting end to the season and start of the finals.

[mcs]

Maybe I'm just a cockeyed optimist but just because it's never been won from 5th or 6th doesn't mean it can never be. As I have said before, with the exception of Simmonds Stadium were there is no finals anyway, there isn't a ground in this league that we haven't won and won comfortably at in the past two seasons so we just might have to be trail blazers this year, while there's life there's hope.
I'll be keeping the faith for a few more weeks!

True, but its an immense task.

For example we finish 5th, with Richmond grabbing 4th (I expect Collingwood will get done by Hawks on Friday.
- Week 1 we get Port @ Home - they beat us earlier in the year, but we should be able to beat them.
- Ok, thats week 1 done. Then we have to beat a losing top 4 side - lets say Richmond get beat by Hawks. Our record away to richmond at the MCG is not pretty. But lets say we get the job done.
- Then week 3 we play a rested Geelong or Freo away from home. A huge task, especially if we go across the Nullabor (despite our good record at Subiaco).
- Then we have to win the big dance against probably Hawthorn or Geelong.

I could see us maybe making a Prelim, but by gee its tough to see anyone getting further than there from the bottom half of the eight. If we had a fully fit list, with our best 22 on the park, I'd give us a hope. But with a list with some significant (not necessarily best players) players out in key positions, then it makes it just that bit tougher.

Not that I'm not an optimist - I really do hope we can go at least 2 points better than we did in defending our crown in 2006. We are good enough on our day to beat any other team in the league. But if we only have to win 3 finals, its a lot more likely we can do that then if we have to win 4 straight finals.

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I'd like to think myself as the same cockeyed optimist, but everyone here has made valid points. I'm really surprised at the stat of "if you finish lower than 4th" it seems you're not going to go far or as far in the finals as the others who finished above you. Someone said Freo have a number of players out as well. While I can respect that (and I know you were only playing devil's advocate) I honestly think if it came to it, we could beat Freo in a finals scenario. No doubt they are a fantastic side, I just think we might sneak it in a close one.

On the issue of the Hawks and Geelong, well obviously these are the two teams that worry me the most. If you watch them, they are lightening fast, and as others have highlighted we aren't really the fastest pack going around. When we play these two we're going to have to seriously man up and use our footy smarts to try and get ahead of the game, otherwise I see them just burning us through the midfield. However, having said that, I am optimistic about picking up at least 4 points from the last two, and we really need to if we're going to all the way this year. Anyway, as I stated, I believe this team can pull out a big game at any time and against any team, and if anything, its going to be an exciting end to the season and start of the finals.

I'd hardly argue the Hawks are lighning fast at all. Its just when they are on, their very accurate kicking game allows them to move the ball quickly. Likewise, geelong's midfield is not particularly quick. But when they are on, their ball usage and movement is fantastic, and they are very adept at the "get the ball forward at all costs" gameplan, which we really struggled with earlier in the year (and port used effectively against us too). Neither team is going to burn us with lightning midfield pace - but if we don't play the game on our terms (see Collingwood on Saturday night, who have a very slow midfield generally in terms of leg speed, but worked very hard), then we are made to look exceptionally cumbersome and behind the play.

No doubt, whatever happens, we will learn over the next three weeks a lot about our flag prospects. I think we will sneak into the 4 by knocking off one of Hawks or geelong, but what I really want to see is that we've identified the issues we had against them earlier in the year, and have managed to go some way towards rectifying them. That would leave me feeling a lot more confident about the finals.

[swantastic]

benny should not have been in for lamb and bj shoulda been on earlier..FACT....if we play like that we will get smashed in finals...FACT...we need to regroup was just a hiccup ...stinkin pies

[Go Swannies]

Ben was underdone on Saturday but we need him to be back up to AFL speed by finals. So we must play him every game from now on. He has shown the passion to redress the balance where his 2012 teammates have a Premiership medallion and he doesn't and has willed us across the line a few time already this year.

The only player not already playing well in reserves that we'll see again this year may be Goodes and he'd be a welcome return but he has tended to start slow after a break and this weekend is our only potentially slow game left for 2013.

[Bloodthirsty]

I think that all the comments from people going through things point by point and reasonably without supporter goggles on, are on the mark. It is about being realistic. We can win it, but the conditions need to be favourable. We can make the conditions favourable if we are good enough. We can't lose to the Hawks twice, lose to the Cats twice and draw with Freo at the SCG and think that we're the best team going around. Our fate is in our hands. I think the biggest issue will be big-gun proven players that won't make it back in time. The footy gods need to smile on Goodes and we need to get Rohan involved. I would also bring Morton into the mix. Playing rookies is not going to get the job done from now.

[Ludwig]

You don't have to be off by much to look like you're getting 'smashed'. The Swans workrate was just off that fraction to allow Dane Swan to get off a handball here and there that led to goals. Nic Mal made 3 errors in the first quarter that could have led to goals or prevented a Collingwood goal. Macca missed a few tackles he should have nailed. We could have been up by several goals at halftime. And that non-call for hands in the back against Cloke that led to a Collingwood goal was a momentum changer.

I just wanted to point out that there probably is not much difference between winning and losing these sort of games. We had some good passages of play that just failed at some point to get a goal, and we surely were off the pace during most of the second half, which has been pointed out.

It is difficult to know how much the training load effects performance, and what can be done to get the right balance. I pointed out in another thread that some Collingwood fans noted that Swan and Pendlebury didn't train or had light training the past week, and they both looked very fresh.

It's the job of the coaching staff to get that balance right. We can only hope they do and we get back to some of the scintillating ball movement we've seen for most of the season.

[hot potato]

Correct. The Pies were took every chance and pulled it off , slotted goals from everywhere, hit targets, conned the ump, and nailed it, making us look a bit ordinary.
It's prep to play the top sides in the lead up than smash the bottom sides .

HP

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Better prep...

[Industrial Fan]

It was particularly irritating that they so frequently got out of congestion with low percentage looped hand balls.

Time after time they had loose players on their side of the stoppage. They also sweated on the players who didnt have the ball when we had it in traffic.

I could only get to the game at qtr time so was a frustrating game for me.

[mcs]

It was particularly irritating that they so frequently got out of congestion with low percentage looped hand balls.

Time after time they had loose players on their side of the stoppage. They also sweated on the players who didnt have the ball when we had it in traffic.

I could only get to the game at qtr time so was a frustrating game for me.

That point about the handballs was very noticeable, as every time they did that at the G earlier in the season, our midfield smashed them as soon as the ball arrived. That gives me hope that if we meet again this year, and our work ethic is back to where it was, then the result will also be back where it was (i.e. I'm not convinced Collingwood changed a lot from the earlier game where we smashed them, but this time we just weren't on and up for it in midfield.)

[Swansinger]

I do not write off our chance of finishing Top Four - not at all .But if there is ONE team which CAN win the flag from 5th or lower,it is THE SYDNEY SWANS. Do not doubt it - not for one second.

[crackedactor]

not anymore

But we have won there in the last 2 years though.

The way footy is played today, no team outside the 4 can win the flag, not even the Swans. But if they win 2 out of next 3 they will have not worries. Though the prospect of playing Fremantle on their home ground is not something to be cherished. Yes Saturday night was disappointing and maybe it had something to do with they training . As someone of this forum suggested -at the end of a strenuous training block to prepare for the finals and therefore maybe a bit leg weary (I hope). But I do know that if we play the way we played against Adelaide, they is no team in the comp. that can match us. Lets hope it is just a blimp on the radar.

[DeadlyAkkuret]

I'm not worried about Freo away. It'd be a bit like when we faced the Crows in the qualifying final last year.

Fremantle finishing 2nd and us 3rd would be the perfect storm.

[On-Baller]

Not sure how much substance there is to it but over the weekend i heard mentioned on radio that the swans last week were just coming to the end of a very heavy loading period training wise in preperation for the finals,apparently Hawks and Cats were a week ahead of us and had similiar results a week before at the end of their heavy loading periods.

Hopefully that may explain how we went from the hardest running team to looking very slow in a matter of a week.My biggest worry is players getting games on reputation and not form,thats fine for say a double brownlow winner in Goodes but guys like Mcglynn who in the second half of the year has been patchy at best and then lacks discipline in being reported walks straight back into the team.

Lamb should not have been dropped,playing great footy,doing nothing wrong and gets dropped for the return of someone who clearly isnt match fit and let the team down with his lack of discipline.Surely Mcglynn should have played at least one week of ressies.Shaw as well may be better for the run but he is nowhere near fit enough to play the role he is so good at,and why even consider moving Mcveigh when he is in AA form at halfback.

Alot of talk about earning games and respect at the bloods but its one rule for some and another for others.Jude Boltons last few games have been great but before then Morton should have been playing that position.I love Jude as a player and person but he along with others shouldnt be guaranteed games on past performances.Judge everyone equally and on form and fitness and we will go back to back,squeeze players out who have done the job all season for guys who are not match fit and i dont like our chances.