Finals Fever

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  • DK_
    On the Rookie List
    • Jun 2013
    • 454

    Finals Fever

    Here's what I think/hope/pray based on my limited knowledge of footy, inferences from what Longmire says and observance of the Swans, particularly leading into last year's finals:

    The facts:

    * To win, the Swans rely on two way running, intense tackling and passion - generally working harder than the opposition for four quarters;
    * Our primary opponents, Geelong and Hawthorn, rely on pin-point kicking, ball skills and general classiness to win;
    * All three teams undertake a period of intense training leading into the finals which resulted in a dip in their form over a few weeks;
    * The Swans' dip seemed to last a fair bit longer than the others; and
    * If what I've heard on here is correct, we've been doing more closed training sessions than usual of late.

    What I've inferred:

    * Longmire doesn't lose much sleep worrying about whether we're minor premiers or whether we get a home final;
    * Longmire is completely focused on wining finals and doesn't play any of his aces until he has to;
    * Further, he actually hides his aces - witness Jetta's "dip in form" (really a move further down back) in the last 6 or so weeks leading to the finals last year, only to burst back to his brilliant best in the finals; and
    * Our leadership group would insist on hitting the training track as hard as humanly possible - it's in the team's DNA to work harder for longer.

    What I've concluded:

    * The obvious one - Longmire didn't want to give the Hawthorn back 6 a go at handling our four talls before the finals or even the idea that they might be able to handle Tippet. They struggled with Jesse and will now be understandably focused on stopping Tippet next week, opening up opportunities elsewhere;
    * We hit the training track harder and longer than the others because we consider it critical to our chances of winning - hence the prolonged dip in performance relative to the others, who would consider the kick in fitness as a nice-to-have rather than critical to winning the premiership;
    * Once we were locked in for the top four, we hit it even harder. By my reckoning, we were still on an increased training program until last week;
    * The 'bomb it to Tippet' strategy is a deliberate ploy so that opposition teams put two or even three defenders on him, giving the other talls and the mids room to move;
    * We'll see a vastly different attack strategy next week where Tippet is more decoy than target. This is what's been going on at the closed training sessions;
    * Jetta will be a part of it, probably as sub;
    * Our tackling and attack on the ball will be INTENSE next week; and
    * Longmire is the best coach in the competition and much smarter and more focused than me.

    I hope I'm right, but even if the details aren't, I'm confident that Longmire's got more to play than he's letting on. I'm looking forward to next week.

    On a different tack, with Jetta probably returning, and maybe Goodes and LRT, would we almost be better off losing next week and getting some extra game time against either Port or Richmond?

    Thoughts?
  • toothy76
    On the Rookie List
    • Jun 2011
    • 73

    #2
    Agree with everything other than the losing next week bit. Win next week and a home prelim is ours. A good advantage to have.

    Comment

    • Cardinal
      Regular in the Side
      • Sep 2008
      • 932

      #3
      How much more optimistic wil everyone be for next week after Friday night's game......

      Comment

      • DK_
        On the Rookie List
        • Jun 2013
        • 454

        #4
        Originally posted by Cardinal
        How much more optimistic wil everyone be for next week after Friday night's game......
        My optimism this week lives on a different planet to how I felt last week! The thing we needed back more than anything was our intensity and it was finally there. This says to me the rumours of a high training workload have some credence. I'm going to be positive and say it'll go to another level next week. Other reasons to be positive:

        1. Hawthorn struggled with Jesse - how are they going to handle Tippett + Jesse?!
        2. Rohan gets better every week!
        3. Nick Smith usually has the wood on Rioli!
        4. Hannebery!
        5. Jetta might be back!
        6. Buddy should be cooling his heels in the stands!
        7. They're playing our game next week!

        Comment

        • Cardinal
          Regular in the Side
          • Sep 2008
          • 932

          #5
          To state the blantantly obvious, the rewards for winning Friday night are huge. Any doubts suffered over the course of the season would mean nothing.

          There would also be great satisfaction if the Hawks found themselves playing the Cats in a prelim. Of course we would have to win a prelim ourselves, but with home advantage. Hopefully with 3 of the top 4 NRL teams from Sydney we could get lucky and a clash at ANZ leads to an SCG final. Dreaming over.

          Comment

          • davenall
            Registered User
            • Aug 2013
            • 2

            #6
            DK, I love your work - looking forward to your next insightful post. Wouldn't it be funny if Mr Franklin gets 3 weeks, which might prompt Hawthorn to want to lose on Friday so that he is available for the Big Dance?

            Comment

            • mcs
              Travelling Swannie!!
              • Jul 2007
              • 8162

              #7
              Originally posted by Cardinal
              To state the blantantly obvious, the rewards for winning Friday night are huge. Any doubts suffered over the course of the season would mean nothing.

              There would also be great satisfaction if the Hawks found themselves playing the Cats in a prelim. Of course we would have to win a prelim ourselves, but with home advantage. Hopefully with 3 of the top 4 NRL teams from Sydney we could get lucky and a clash at ANZ leads to an SCG final. Dreaming over.
              No hope of an scg final - we should draw 50-60, 000 for a home prelim no matter the opposition. The afl and the swans wont give half of that up, end of story.

              Friday night will be decisive imo for our premiership aspirations. Win and we will have every hope of being there on gf day. Lose and itll be an exceptionally tough challenge just to make the gf, let alone win it.

              Carn you mighty bloods!!!!
              "You get the feeling that like Monty Python's Black Knight, the Swans would regard amputation as merely a flesh wound."

              Comment

              • Cardinal
                Regular in the Side
                • Sep 2008
                • 932

                #8
                Originally posted by mcs
                No hope of an scg final - we should draw 50-60, 000 for a home prelim no matter the opposition. The afl and the swans wont give half of that up, end of story.

                Friday night will be decisive imo for our premiership aspirations. Win and we will have every hope of being there on gf day. Lose and itll be an exceptionally tough challenge just to make the gf, let alone win it.

                Carn you mighty bloods!!!!
                The question could be whether the NRL would give up the stadium if they had a final scheduled there (noting the chook's home ground is the Football Stadium).

                Comment

                • MightyBloods
                  Regular in the Side
                  • Feb 2012
                  • 532

                  #9
                  I've moved my benchmark for this team given our injuries this year. At the start of the year I was confident we could go back to back. Now, if we made a prelim on the back of the year we've had I'd be happy and mighty proud. If the boys do any better than that we may possibly be staring at one of the greatest ever premiership years by any club.

                  Comment

                  • Jewels
                    On the Rookie List
                    • Oct 2006
                    • 3258

                    #10
                    Originally posted by mcs
                    Friday night will be decisive imo for our premiership aspirations. Win and we will have every hope of being there on gf day. Lose and itll be an exceptionally tough challenge just to make the gf, let alone win it.

                    Carn you mighty bloods!!!!
                    We did it the hard way in 05, can't see why we couldn't do it again.

                    Originally posted by MightyBloods
                    I've moved my benchmark for this team given our injuries this year. At the start of the year I was confident we could go back to back. Now, if we made a prelim on the back of the year we've had I'd be happy and mighty proud. If the boys do any better than that we may possibly be staring at one of the greatest ever premiership years by any club.
                    Yep, great post totally agree.

                    Comment

                    • annew
                      Senior Player
                      • Mar 2006
                      • 2164

                      #11
                      Can't see us winning Friday night as I think the hawks are on a mission and will be out to massacre us. There is already an article on The Age on how Buddy can and will possibly get a reprimand only. Lose Friday and it's either Richmnd or Carlon (prob Rchmond) at ANZ on the Sat night. Of course the NRL could also come in to play as well.

                      Comment

                      • Go Swannies
                        Veterans List
                        • Sep 2003
                        • 5697

                        #12
                        Originally posted by MightyBloods
                        I've moved my benchmark for this team given our injuries this year. At the start of the year I was confident we could go back to back. Now, if we made a prelim on the back of the year we've had I'd be happy and mighty proud. If the boys do any better than that we may possibly be staring at one of the greatest ever premiership years by any club.
                        So true - half the team out including many of "the stars" and still just one game away from the PF. So much to be proud of - and I'll explode if we win on Friday. And I think we can.

                        Comment

                        • Nich
                          Senior Player
                          • May 2010
                          • 1291

                          #13
                          Originally posted by annew
                          Can't see us winning Friday night as I think the hawks are on a mission and will be out to massacre us. There is already an article on The Age on how Buddy can and will possibly get a reprimand only. Lose Friday and it's either Richmnd or Carlon (prob Rchmond) at ANZ on the Sat night. Of course the NRL could also come in to play as well.
                          Hawks are not unstoppable. If anything they still walk on a knifes edge when you put the blowtorch to them in the big games. That was a tough game last Friday. We hit them hard. Their mids did not get a rest.

                          They are the hunted. We like to hunt. And they know we can hunt them, and get the kill. They know what happened last year and I think it works in our favour.

                          Buddy will not get off. No chance.

                          Believe.
                          Last edited by Nich; 1 September 2013, 09:52 PM.

                          Comment

                          • DK_
                            On the Rookie List
                            • Jun 2013
                            • 454

                            #14
                            Originally posted by davenall
                            DK, I love your work - looking forward to your next insightful post. Wouldn't it be funny if Mr Franklin gets 3 weeks, which might prompt Hawthorn to want to lose on Friday so that he is available for the Big Dance?
                            Thanks! I think they'd do anything to avoid a prelim against Geelong!

                            Comment

                            • annew
                              Senior Player
                              • Mar 2006
                              • 2164

                              #15
                              I am trying to believe but just can't see us winning Friday night with or without Buddy. Having said that if we do make it to the prelim it is an amazing effort considering our injuries this year.

                              Comment

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