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Form and history says Freo - but here's how Sydney can win
The good omen first. Four of the last five premiers have won through from the second preliminary final.
Under the current system, only four qualifying final winners have lost the preliminary. But one of those was St Kilda against the eventual premier in 2005.
And since Adelaide won the flag from 4th and 5th positions respectively a decade and a half ago, only one team has won through to the grand final from 4th. Us again. We knocked out the Purple Haze in the prelim and went on to play off against the team we?d vanquished the previous year. OK, we know how that ended.
But the Swans can take plenty out of last week's win, even if it were against the lowest-ranked finalist ever.
We put Carlton to the sword with our outside run in the same way that Hawthorn did to us the previous week. That spread is an essential part of our slingshot game; the yin to our in-and-under yang. Why we hadn?t done so since July is a mystery, but it was the kind of footy we showed when we overran the Pies, Essendon and Adelaide, not to mention our last game at Subi.
Just as important were the dominance of players like McVeigh, Hannebery and Mumford, who had gone missing against Hawthorn, and the critical cameos from Parker and Jetta, and the contributions from guys like Everitt, Biggs and Cunningham.
With that win in difficult circumstances Sydney take plenty of confidence to Perth. Freo might be favourite, but we are still a good chance to knock them over.
There?s little between the two sides. The winning margins in the last five games have been: draw, 13, 9, 37 and 13 points. That?s two and a half wins apiece.
We?ve lost Tippett again, yet the stats tell us we actually score more without him. That may be a reflection on our tough late season draw, but in his absence the forward line seems to open up for our runners to mark and crumb.
There are good reasons why Freo are hot favourites, however.
Even in the SCG draw they outplayed us, despite the absence of Pavlich and Sandilands. The Dockers squandered chances while we were uncommonly accurate. They clawed back a 27-point deficit in the last 15 minutes and only Sam Reid?s hanger saved a draw.
While the Swans have coughed and sputtered their way to September, Freo has had a smooth run with injuries and a back half draw only occasionally impeded by top sides.
To top it off they are well rested. Lyon gave ten players the week off in round 23. The following week they carried off the jaw-dropping feat of dismissing Geelong in a final at Simonds Stadium.
So they can?t not be favourites on their home patch, where they?ve won 16 of their last 17 matches, and with fresh legs against a Swans team with a poor record in running out games; we?ve won just 10 out of 24 last quarters this year.
And yet. Quarter by quarter Sydney are only a shade behind last year, despite the injury toll. In 2012 we won 64, drew won and lost 35 quarters. This year (having played one less game) we?ve won 59, drawn 4 and lost 33. This speaks to the strength of the club's gameplan and the ability to drill young players to follow it.
The big danger for the Dockers is that they may be fresh to the point of being underdone. A good number have played just one game in the past month. Sydney has been slugging it out with the other finalists for the past five weeks. We might not be physically fresh but mentally we are razor-sharp.
So the path to a Sydney victory will be by jumping the sluggish Dockers in the first quarter and building up a halftime lead. If, however, the Dockers take control early, it?ll be us who get the heave-ho.
Prediction: Dockers by 13.
LAST FIVE CONTESTS
2013. Round 8, SCG
Syd 3.0 7.2 8.3 11.4 (70)
Fre 3.6 3.8 5.12 9.16 (70)
2012. Round 2, SCG
Syd 4.4 9.7 11.9 14.10 (94)
Fre 2.2 3.3 9.4 12.9 (81)
2011. Round 17, SCG
Fre 3.2 7.4 14.7 15.8 (98)
Syd 3.2 6.3 8.5 13.9 (87)
2010
Round 9, SCG
Fre 3.6 9.12 11.14 14.16 (100)
Syd 3.2 5.4 8.5 9.9 (63)
Round 20, Subiaco
Syd 2.5 5.8 9.9 14.12 (94)
Fre 3.2 5.6 10.6 13.9 (81)
HIGHLIGHTS, MILESTONES
Mumford?s 100th
Jude's last game in Perth
Matt de Boer?s 100th
MATCHUPS
Ted v Pavlich: Ted has softened up Pav in the fawning modern manner by comparing him to Goodes. That Pav hasn't spoken of Richards in the same breath as SOS is a slight that is sure to fire up Ted.
Mummo v Sandi: For the first time since Mumford came to Sydney nearly four years. Throw in Pyke and Zach Clarke and it?s a contest. If you?re not busy, take a minute to contemplate the notion of a body 15 kg larger than Mumford?s.
Hannebery:v Crowley: Hanna is Sydney's bellwether and will surely attract attention, although he blew Crowley up in Round 8. In a nice piece of psyops, McVeigh has tipped Crowley to go to him (McVeigh).
Ballantyne v Malceski/Rampe/Biggs: In an ideal world, without an MRP and with matchups based solely on entertainment value, I'd put Ballantyne on Mumford just to see how long before he is flung into the pickets. Sadly that won't happen. But will he get the job on our most dangerous halfback? Or get picked up by Rampe or Biggs?
Smith v Walters: Dockers? biggest goalkicker this year with 41. A job for no. 40.
Battle of the Swans premiership mentors: Longmire (2005 & 2012) vs Lyon, Kirk & Mark Stone (2005).
OTHER KEY DOCKERS
Michael Johnson ? AA half-back. A job for ROK at half-forward?
Stephen Hill - has never put in a big game against us, but can carve sides up with his speed
Danyle Pearce ? plenty of pace, gets plenty of ball
ODDS
TAB: Dockers $1.30. Swans $3.55
The good omen first. Four of the last five premiers have won through from the second preliminary final.
Under the current system, only four qualifying final winners have lost the preliminary. But one of those was St Kilda against the eventual premier in 2005.
And since Adelaide won the flag from 4th and 5th positions respectively a decade and a half ago, only one team has won through to the grand final from 4th. Us again. We knocked out the Purple Haze in the prelim and went on to play off against the team we?d vanquished the previous year. OK, we know how that ended.
But the Swans can take plenty out of last week's win, even if it were against the lowest-ranked finalist ever.
We put Carlton to the sword with our outside run in the same way that Hawthorn did to us the previous week. That spread is an essential part of our slingshot game; the yin to our in-and-under yang. Why we hadn?t done so since July is a mystery, but it was the kind of footy we showed when we overran the Pies, Essendon and Adelaide, not to mention our last game at Subi.
Just as important were the dominance of players like McVeigh, Hannebery and Mumford, who had gone missing against Hawthorn, and the critical cameos from Parker and Jetta, and the contributions from guys like Everitt, Biggs and Cunningham.
With that win in difficult circumstances Sydney take plenty of confidence to Perth. Freo might be favourite, but we are still a good chance to knock them over.
There?s little between the two sides. The winning margins in the last five games have been: draw, 13, 9, 37 and 13 points. That?s two and a half wins apiece.
We?ve lost Tippett again, yet the stats tell us we actually score more without him. That may be a reflection on our tough late season draw, but in his absence the forward line seems to open up for our runners to mark and crumb.
There are good reasons why Freo are hot favourites, however.
Even in the SCG draw they outplayed us, despite the absence of Pavlich and Sandilands. The Dockers squandered chances while we were uncommonly accurate. They clawed back a 27-point deficit in the last 15 minutes and only Sam Reid?s hanger saved a draw.
While the Swans have coughed and sputtered their way to September, Freo has had a smooth run with injuries and a back half draw only occasionally impeded by top sides.
To top it off they are well rested. Lyon gave ten players the week off in round 23. The following week they carried off the jaw-dropping feat of dismissing Geelong in a final at Simonds Stadium.
So they can?t not be favourites on their home patch, where they?ve won 16 of their last 17 matches, and with fresh legs against a Swans team with a poor record in running out games; we?ve won just 10 out of 24 last quarters this year.
And yet. Quarter by quarter Sydney are only a shade behind last year, despite the injury toll. In 2012 we won 64, drew won and lost 35 quarters. This year (having played one less game) we?ve won 59, drawn 4 and lost 33. This speaks to the strength of the club's gameplan and the ability to drill young players to follow it.
The big danger for the Dockers is that they may be fresh to the point of being underdone. A good number have played just one game in the past month. Sydney has been slugging it out with the other finalists for the past five weeks. We might not be physically fresh but mentally we are razor-sharp.
So the path to a Sydney victory will be by jumping the sluggish Dockers in the first quarter and building up a halftime lead. If, however, the Dockers take control early, it?ll be us who get the heave-ho.
Prediction: Dockers by 13.
LAST FIVE CONTESTS
2013. Round 8, SCG
Syd 3.0 7.2 8.3 11.4 (70)
Fre 3.6 3.8 5.12 9.16 (70)
2012. Round 2, SCG
Syd 4.4 9.7 11.9 14.10 (94)
Fre 2.2 3.3 9.4 12.9 (81)
2011. Round 17, SCG
Fre 3.2 7.4 14.7 15.8 (98)
Syd 3.2 6.3 8.5 13.9 (87)
2010
Round 9, SCG
Fre 3.6 9.12 11.14 14.16 (100)
Syd 3.2 5.4 8.5 9.9 (63)
Round 20, Subiaco
Syd 2.5 5.8 9.9 14.12 (94)
Fre 3.2 5.6 10.6 13.9 (81)
HIGHLIGHTS, MILESTONES
Mumford?s 100th
Jude's last game in Perth
Matt de Boer?s 100th
MATCHUPS
Ted v Pavlich: Ted has softened up Pav in the fawning modern manner by comparing him to Goodes. That Pav hasn't spoken of Richards in the same breath as SOS is a slight that is sure to fire up Ted.
Mummo v Sandi: For the first time since Mumford came to Sydney nearly four years. Throw in Pyke and Zach Clarke and it?s a contest. If you?re not busy, take a minute to contemplate the notion of a body 15 kg larger than Mumford?s.
Hannebery:v Crowley: Hanna is Sydney's bellwether and will surely attract attention, although he blew Crowley up in Round 8. In a nice piece of psyops, McVeigh has tipped Crowley to go to him (McVeigh).
Ballantyne v Malceski/Rampe/Biggs: In an ideal world, without an MRP and with matchups based solely on entertainment value, I'd put Ballantyne on Mumford just to see how long before he is flung into the pickets. Sadly that won't happen. But will he get the job on our most dangerous halfback? Or get picked up by Rampe or Biggs?
Smith v Walters: Dockers? biggest goalkicker this year with 41. A job for no. 40.
Battle of the Swans premiership mentors: Longmire (2005 & 2012) vs Lyon, Kirk & Mark Stone (2005).
OTHER KEY DOCKERS
Michael Johnson ? AA half-back. A job for ROK at half-forward?
Stephen Hill - has never put in a big game against us, but can carve sides up with his speed
Danyle Pearce ? plenty of pace, gets plenty of ball
ODDS
TAB: Dockers $1.30. Swans $3.55
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