Inability to rest players

[Ruck'n'Roll]

Thinking back to the sheer number of "Changes for this round" threads I read this year. I find Horse's claims that he would have loved "to have been able to rest players but injuries took the choice out of the matter" somewhat bemusing.
I suggest he overlooked several opportunities to rest senior players this year, especially when playing cellar dwellers.
Thoughts?

http://www.news.com.au/sport/afl/kieran-jack-says-swans-inability-to-rest-players-came-back-to-haunt-it/story-fndv8ujy-1226727178603

[DK_]

Thinking back to the sheer number of "Changes for this round" threads I read this year. I find Horse's claims that he would have loved "to have been able to rest players but injuries took the choice out of the matter" somewhat bemusing.
I suggest he overlooked several opportunities to rest senior players this year, especially when playing cellar dwellers.
Thoughts?

http://www.news.com.au/sport/afl/kie...-1226727178603

I've been thinking about this and some related issues a fair bit. I think the days of top 22 are dead if you want to be amongst the top teams and you now must be thinking top 30, particularly when it comes to the midfield (which kind of extends onto the HFF and HBF as well now).

To answer your question, I think the Swans are behind the game here and it's probably a cultural maxim attached to earning your spot and treating every opponent the same. We undoubtably missed opportunities to rest or manage players against weak opposition, the most striking example being the decision to play Reid early against the Dees when he was returning from a soft tissue injury. Why? Similarly, GWS and St Kilda provided late season opportunities to rest some key players that weren't taken. Hawthorn rd 23 may also have provided some rest, but the opportunity wasn't taken.

My other thoughts are:
1. If you're operating with a 'best 30' instead of a 'best 22', is the current list size big enough to accommodate both your serious current players and your developing players?
2. Is it time for the players who helped get to the grand final to get a medal as well?
3. What's the best resting strategy?

1. My concern here is that otherwise gifted players may come and go without ever getting a shot because of the need to turn over the list, coupled with an injury to them-self, or a lack of injuries or retirements amongst those ahead of them. The increasing number of mature age recruits or 'second shot' players who make it (Rampe, Johnson, Heath) tell me that young players who might turn out to be very good at AFL level are being cut before they get a real chance to mature.

To illustrate my point, consider if your a budding midfielder that gets picked up,in the draft by the Swans at age 18. You've got 2 or 3 years to crack into the big time, after which you're delisted. Above you is one of the leading mid fields, with only a few players over 25. You may show promise, but they never get injured. What chance do you have? In a top 22 world, show enough promise and you may hold one of the list spots anyway, but in a top 30 world, they're space, and probably being taken up by KPPs who can take longer. The counter-argument is that there's more spots to get into the midfield rotation, but I would say that this is not going to happen until the 2nd, probably 3rd year, unless you're a budding superstar. This means there's less 'development' spots on the list. Perhaps the solution is a larger rookie list, which you can stay on for longer?

In the 18 side competition, squeezing every bit of talent out of the available pool is critical to maintaining a high quality competition. It seems counter-intuitive, but bigger lists might be the solution to ensuring there are enough talented players to go around.

2. This one has been well discussed, but, if you're using a top 30 to get there, surely some threshold, such as 5 games played, or played in a final, would be a better representation of the players who earned the premiership? See Benny McGlynn.

3. If you're rotating players, how do you do it?

Rotate one player a week? Does this prevent a gelling of players and structures?

Rest multiple players against weak teams? Where would this have left us against the bulldogs? At the time, Port might also have been classified the same.

Rest players when you're travelling? Perhaps a consideration when you're a non-Melbourne team and the travel can wear you down over a season.

Secure a top 4 spot and the rest everyone, a la Lyons? Not sure why we didn't do this, though Longmire may have been more concerned with getting form back.

Just some thoughts.

[sharp9]

The other really big problem was lack of depth through the midfield.....we had our 7 or 8 players and they STAYED in the midfield all game every game (pretty much....except McVeigh who stayed running fit all year...possibly because he got to go back the HBF and have a bit of a rest from time to time)....Geelong has Stokes, Christiansen, Johnson, Motlop, Varcoe playing significant time though the centre despite being forward types. We didn't get that from Bolton, McGlynn, Morton, Rohan, Jetta in 2013. By round 19 our midfield was simply cooked....still playing quality football but at nowhere near the intensity of the other top teams.

When Lamb, B. Jack and co can really cut it in the midfield - even for 30 full minutes per game this will ease the whole season burden on O'Keefe, Jack, Mitchell, Hannebery and Kennedy.

And maybe Smith or Rampe should go to the midfield permanently as a "role" player. Both could hurt other teams too.

[Ludwig]

Good write-up DK

I agree with your ideas about this and have similarly commented during the season.

I think it will be hard to come up with an exact formula for resting players due to injuries and targeting particular games to be at top strength. But you could work out a program as follows as a general guide.

Let's say we take as a group our core 9 midfielders: Kennedy, ROK, McVeigh, Jack, Hanners, Parker, Bird, Mitchell and Jetta.

Next season will be split in three parts separated by 2 bye rounds. Let's say we want to give each of the 9 midfielders one game rest in each of the 3 segments for a total of 27 games. So we could have a program to distribute these games among the next best midfielders in waiting, say Lamb, Cunningham and Towers. So each of these gets 9 games each. Injuries would bring others into the picture. The actual rest times for the top players will depend on the match. So maybe we rest 3 for GSW, none for Hawthorn and 2 for Brisbane.

We could have similar type programs separately for the forwards, defenders and ruckmen.

I definitely think we should try to rotate based on a 30-odd player squad.

It can be a bit complicated, but that's what the coaching staff are there for. I remember in Moneyball that it was the computer guy that worked out what to do. Maybe that's what we need.

I knew we were finished this year in round 23 when Lyon rested most of his team while we had our fatigued players go all out in a meaningless game.

[Ajn]

Let's not forget that it is who is injured, that impacts most. Our squad is deep enough and a few may have been able to be rested when they weren't. Our run was crueled by injury FAR more than rotation. Keep the faith....

[Panttz]

I like it Ludwig! Send that as an email straight to Horse!

2014 is in the bag in my mind now!

[jono2707]

They're having a rest now. That should do em - they're a tough bunch....

[Hartijon]

No changes for the Hawks,one change for Freo.When we won last year we had a dream run with injuries and had a settled side.If we had a steady team with very few changes we would be playing today.The rotation plan sounds good in theory but would never deliver a premiership. A Premiership team has to work like a machine where every part knows intimately what every part will do next and hence anticipate where to run.You don,t develop this through chopping and changing.You develop this through playing the same players week after week. These players need to be the best 22 and only get demoted after consistent poor performance or injury.Imagine the frustration and anger if you were in the A team ,building your career and then had to sit out because it was "your turn".

[wolftone57]

No changes for the Hawks,one change for Freo.When we won last year we had a dream run with injuries and had a settled side.If we had a steady team with very few changes we would be playing today.The rotation plan sounds good in theory but would never deliver a premiership. A Premiership team has to work like a machine where every part knows intimately what every part will do next and hence anticipate where to run.You don,t develop this through chopping and changing.You develop this through playing the same players week after week. These players need to be the best 22 and only get demoted after consistent poor performance or injury.Imagine the frustration and anger if you were in the A team ,building your career and then had to sit out because it was "your turn".

It delivered Cats a premiership Hartijon and Hawks are there today and have rotated and rested all year. Freo rested heavily just before the finals against Cats and once they got their full team back had a series of resting rotations. We did not blood many players in 2012 and I think the only reason we did this year has been because of injury. Most of those players have been very good and will only improve the more exposure they get. The season is now too long and intense and the stress levels are far too high to not entertain resting players. If you hadn't noticed Clarko mentioned this as did Brad Scott, Ross Lyon and on channel 7 Vossy did too. Your players have to be rotated every now and then to give younger players exposure and develop a situation that when young players come in for longer periods they don't upset team balance.

[Bloodthirsty]

By the time we reached round 23, I was extremely frustrated with our decision to not rest players ala Freo. If I was the coach, I would have rested 10-12 players against Hawthorn in a radical move that saw us get belted by 250 points and in trouble with the AFL for no clear reason......but it would have given us our ONLY chance to win the GF this year. Our ONLY chance. I would have rested almost the entire midfield and our most important KPPs and rebound players still standing.

[DK_]

By the time we reached round 23, I was extremely frustrated with our decision to not rest players ala Freo. If I was the coach, I would have rested 10-12 players against Hawthorn in a radical move that saw us get belted by 250 points and in trouble with the AFL for no clear reason......but it would have given us our ONLY chance to win the GF this year. Our ONLY chance. I would have rested almost the entire midfield and our most important KPPs and rebound players still standing.

I'm not sure we had enough listed players left to do this. But granted we should have rested more.

[Ludwig]

A rotation plan can only work if you are not decimated by injury. But if you get a good run, you could have your players a bit fresher by having them play, say, 19 games instead of 22. Then you play your best team through the finals. We should have learned by this year that you can't win with a tired team, so something has to be done.

The game is always changing with different strategies being employed to get you to the GF. I think several coaches now have realised that you have to have fresh players at the end of the season if you want to apply the kind of pressure required to beat the best teams.