2014 Swans prediction

[ernie koala]

Now that Franklin is confirmed (I didn't want to make assumptions prior to that) I was idly musing at lunchtime about our best XXII assuming all are fully fit and match ready. It was really hard to do without leaving several strong players out!

Where's your team Doc?

I'll have a stab at it :

FB : Smith Grundy Rampe

HB : Shaw Richards Malceski

C : Hannebery Jack Rohan

HF : Reid Franklin Goodes

FF : Parker Tippett McVeigh

Fol :Pyke Kennedy OKeefe

Int : LRT Mitchell Bird Jetta

Emg : McGlynn Johnson Cunningham

No doubt, I've left plenty of talent playing in the ACT.

[Melbourne_Blood]

That teams pretty spot on Ernie, though I'd think a fit AJ would have to be in there, maybe ahead of LRT? I'd like to squeeze lamb to in to but it's bloody tough! I'd also like to think Jack Jnr, Harry, Towers, Membrey, Lloyd and Biggs would be putting constant pressure on for spots, all hungry and with another Preseason under their belts! Even without Franklin, it looks a bloody good side!

[crackedactor]

As a keen student of the history of our club: I think there are distinct historical parallels between the present and the past.

First Parallel (happy):
The 2005 and 2012 premierships mirror those of 1909 and 1918, indeed the Maxfield, Kirk et al even reclaimed the Bloods nickname from the Belcher era. Neither team were based on high profile recruits, but had a reputation for toughness.

2nd Parallel(scary):
Recent high profile/high priced recruits seem to hark back to the South Melbourne's misnamed "Golden Era" of the 1930's. At that time we won one flag then followed it with three years of falling agonizingly close to winning a second flag (injuries were blamed then too). The team of superstars then disintegrated, sending the Swans into a death spiral that lasted for over 50 years.

The only reason the 1930s golden era failed was the famous Archie Croft's curse. When after the 1933 win he declared "this should be the first of many flags for the swans over the next few years!! Yeh Right! just wait 72 years.

[rojo]

Pretty much agree with your outs Ernie K. It looks like 2 established players will miss every week. But that will depend on who, out of the 22 who spent a fair amount of time out this year, are up and running

The preseason is going to tell a story for Goodes, Shaw, Reid and AJ. Are the bodies of Goodes and Shaw going to hold up for another year, and has time and rest or whatever, fixed Reid's troublesome quad? You would expect Jetta, Rohan and why not LRT to power on, and hope that AJ's recovery is going well now. The only other one on the 'ins' list who is in recovery mode (that we know of) is Mitchell. He has had such an unfortunate run with injury, surely this will be the last for a very long time!

As others have said we don't need to trade for new players to refresh our list this year - forgetting Buddy (!), if this lot make it back into the team it will be like having seven/eight 'new' players from within. KT could still be considered a relative newbie too! 2014 is going to be quite a year!

[robamiee]

LRT can also pinch hit in the ruck...he has done it in the past...I think you may find that McGlynn would be ahead of Bird....Birdy may find himself in the ressies more often than not this year...plus Goodes and Shaw how there bodies hold up...Shaw could be our Gia super sub this year...my only concern is our big bodied defenders....have we got anyone coming on that can take over grundy....I feel his influence down back is starting to wane as he gets beaten too many times by the big forwards...at least we don't have to worry about who to put on Buddy when we play the hawks

[Triple B]

I think you may find that McGlynn would be ahead of Bird....Birdy may find himself in the ressies more often than not this year...

Is this the same 'Birdy' that finished Top 10 in the B&F for the second straight year??

You're not alone tho, I'm amazed how many RWO's just don't seem to rate him. McGlynn ahead of Bird based on 2013 performances is laughable...

[ShockOfHair]

I also have a query over McGlynn. I cringe every time he kicks, plus he seemed to go missing in the big games.

The difficult player to place is LRT. No room him in the forward line, Tippett is supposedly no.2 ruck, and the back six looks like: Smith Richards Rampe Johnson Malceski Shaw.

Should make for some intense preseason training contests.

[wolftone57]

So who goes out when we pick up Heath Shaw?

Shaw is not on our radar. Have a look at the sides that have already knocked him back and the thought of us picking him up is laughable. He will most likely, according to AFL Trade Radio, end up at GWS. He also wants too much money for us. I don't think we would be paying $400G for him.

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I think our small forward stocks are pretty good. Apart from Benny, who needs a few more sessions with the kicking coach, we have Lamb and Jetta when he goes forward, as well as some very good medium-tall forwards like ROK and Gaz the Great, not to mention the rotating mids like Parker, Hanners, Jack and the list goes on. I actually think there's not a weakness anywhere. (touches wood to avert the wrath of the footy gods, who really hurt us this year)

You forgot BJ as he will only get better.

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Barring injuries like this year, I expect to make top 4 again. My only worry is our lack of 'zip' on the forward line. I think we need a quick and clever forward pocket at the feet of Tippett, Pyke, Goodes or Buddy. I'm still getting used to saying Buddy but boy I'm enjoying it!

I don't agree. With Gaz, BJ, Lloydy and Towers we have genuine speed. Even though Lloydy is more a mid he kicks goals from anywhere and is a very long kick. Give the kid a millimetre and he will leave you a kilometre behind. He has the knack of getting free and he is quick. We have only just started to see what BJ can do and Gaz is all class at his best. Deano is really quick too and his burst speed is one of the best I've seen.

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Top four is more than a chance next year.
However If Pyke gets injured and we dont pick up a second ruck option in the draft we may be in trouble.

Naismith will develop this year and if Pykie goes down, Lugh of the Longhand forbid, Tip can cover first ruck. LRT comes back as well. By the way the opening comment said Dre would be going, he's not. The only players moving on are White to Pies, Mummy to GWS, Mattner retired, Bolton retired & Morton retired. There was a rumour we were looking to trade Smithy & dre for early draft picks. This turned out to be bulldung.

[Ajn]

Setting records for consecutive posts?

Should be a chance to rookie a ruck backup, such as our ressie ruck(head?) and remote option is our US project .

Otherwise we will back in Pyke and the part timers, maybe even Reid ??

[Auntie.Gerald]

i cant stop thinking about our forward line in 2014

tippett
buddy
reid
goodes

then the others like jetta, mcglynn, rohan, lambie, mitchell, parker etc rotating thru the forward / midfield

its outrageous !!!!

[crackedactor]

one thing

i cant stop thinking about our forward line in 2014

tippett
buddy
reid
goodes

then the others like jetta, mcglynn, rohan, lambie, mitchell, parker etc rotating thru the forward / midfield

its outrageous !!!!

It sounds great on paper and you would imagine we would be the team to beat in 2014. But it still worries me if they cannot gel together and just get in each other's way. It could be Like the LA galaxy Soccer team . They have some of the best players in the world, but cannot win a game!!

I think Horse has a lot of thinking about game plans in 2014.

[barry]

2014

In. Franklin , jetta, rohan, aj, shaw, lrt, reid, goodes.

Out. Bolton, matner, mummy, white

We have the best team on oaper in the afl. Only reason we are not favourites is because the granny is at the mcg

[Auntie.Gerald]

using the the box formation in the forward line will be a treat to watch in 2014 ie u move into the space on the lead.......if that space closes you shift wider and high and then "the next corner of the box moved into space" ie just keep shifting to the next corner after you lead if no pass comes your way

you can do this with a triangle (3players) but a square ie 4 players becomes very difficult to defend when you have 4 very dominant tall leading forwards

it is simple and still used by several teams in the AFL

Geelong and Hawks in the main

it means that everyone gets their opportunity to lead as much as any other player and the goals are shared

The Swans havent adopted this style of forward structure so much in the past as we have been so much about field position to control games ie move into the oppositions 50m arc via kicking to a contest........we did evolve a little in 2012 with our slingshot counter attack which was effective and I wont be surprised to see another evolution in our style in 2014 with a little more uncontested kicking around to set up our BOX "4" key forwards