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It goes without saying that how the Buddy Franklin story unfolds will put the stamp on the history of the 2013 post-season. There are so many ramifications of this signing that you could write a book about it, and probably somebody will someday. Whatever the fallout, it was believed getting Buddy was worth it. We were ready to lose some players over it and accept that we would have salary cap pressure for some years to come. There must have been many hours doing the numbers before a decision was made. Most of the Cola and salary cap issues have be discussed at length. I think it will be difficult for AFL to cut the Cola in any way that effects existing contracts, so if it does go, it will go slowly and over a long period of time. In the fullness of time the cap issues will dissolve away.
Mumford was the departure that was a planned consequence of the Buddy deal, and we were ready to go with a Pyke-Tippett ruck combo into 2014 and try to do our best to fill the depth hole left by big Mummy. We decided to cut Alex Brown as we didn?t want to carry 2 project 3rd defenders into another year, and he lost out to Jordon Lockyer, who may in turn lose his jumper number in the Buddy fallout. Jude, Morton and Mattner retired. White, Everett, Armstrong and Lamb were all outside of best 22, although it seems we would have liked to retain Jed. I thought both Jesse and Dre improved a lot in 2013, but would find it difficult to make our best 22 in 2014 and given their age deserve a chance to be senior players. We preferred not to get any compensation for Jeb to make a point with GWS ? the war is ON. I think we will be targeting their list for some time to come. We didn?t get well compensated for our player departures, but as it turned out, it was probably just enough to get us what we wanted in the draft.
Jeremy Laidler is a great pickup. I?m sure he doesn?t see himself a depth player and has every chance to assume the role vacated by Marty Mattner, irrespective of what Dane Rampe has done. Laidler could we come into the 22, but I don?t think is will be at the expense of pushing Dane out.
Patrick Mitchell is an interesting prospect that is part of the long-term plan to use one spot on the list for experimenting with a foreign player from another sport. We have had big successes with Kennelly and Pyke, but a few others didn?t work out, with Tommy Walsh likely to add to that list soon. Indications are that he is playing out his contract then heading home.
Lloyd Perris was an excellent rookie signing given that he was likely to get picked in the second round, and maybe even in the 20s.
Tom Derickx is a strange one, especially given how the draft turned out and the selections we made. The only reason I can see for signing him before the ND was that some other team was competing for his signature. As unlikely as that seems, why else would we take him when we could have seen how the draft went and either picked him up at pick 53, signed him after the ND or gotten him as a rookie, or alternatively, not taken him at all and use pick 44 for someone else and 53 on Aliir. If we were only looking for a backup for Pyke, why did we have to take so many ruckmen? You would think we already had plans to take either Lobb or Nankervis in the draft, so why commit so early on Derickx. To me it seems we went into ruck overkill, as both Toby and Aliir can play in the ruck, which means that we now have 6 (Derickx, Toby, LRT, Naismith, Mitchell and Aliir) backup ruckmen. Mummy has such big shoes to fill; it?s going to take 6 men to do it. We are unlikely to ever know the true story, but it seems that something got screwed up and we effectively gave up pick 53 for Tom. It?s not a big deal, but there were some interesting alternatives.
The National Draft
The draft went deeper than many had expected at first, with some good selections to be had into the early 30s. Lewis Taylor dropping 28, Dumont at 30 and Cutler at 33 were all being considered as possible first round picks.
The 2 expansion teams pulled a few surprises. When the rumour was floated that we were interested in McCarthy at pick 15, I joked that we started it to trick GWS into taking him to spoil our party, even though it was so unlikely we would be interested in taking another tall forward after just landing both Tippett and Franklin. And the Giants seem even more unlikely than us to pick him. Where in the world does McCarthy go in a forward line that will include Cameron, Boyd, Patton and Tomlinson. If not to be a spoiler, then perhaps they are stocking up on talent and plan to trade Patton for a first round pick or experienced star next year.
GC were a big surprise by picking Leslie and Lemmens with their picks 20 and 27; both were not expected to go earlier than the 3rd round. This helped our situation a lot but pushing some of the more highly touted talent down the pecking order.
Brisbane did a great job replacing their big exit of young players and look better off for the process.
Collingwood seem another winner in the off season. They lost a few experienced players, but got Taylor Adams and Jesse White, who should both fit into their 22. Karnezis and Tony Armstrong could also be handy. They really nailed the draft picking up 2 great prospects in Scharenberg and Freeman with their 1st round picks. Tom Langdon was a good one for a 4th rounder and amazingly Jonathon Marsh was still around at pick 77. The loss of our pick 53 irks me because it would seem a great get for the last spot on the list. I wonder if we perhaps don?t have much expectation for Harry Marsh and expect he won?t be retained for 2015 and bringing his brother in would make that a difficult cut; but that?s just pure conjecture.
The Swans Draft
Going into the draft the only one we picked that was on my radar was George Hewett, and just thrilled that we go him at pick 32. I was hoping that Blake Acres would be available at pick 15 and he was. But we decided to go with Zak Jones. In retrospect, this appears a very good choice. He seems the epitome of a Swans? player. Already a 2-way player with a good defensive game, he has a good burst of speed and the kind of work ethic the Swans love. The total package makes him a great 1st round selection. It?s hard to imagine him joining our long and depressing list of 1st round failures.
I thought we might use pick 32 or 35 for a tall defender. Given that Brisbane, sitting with the picks in between had already taken Gardiner and McStay, we could be fairly confident that they were not going to take another defender and could use 32 for our second non KPP pick. Fortunately, we had both Hewett and first round hopeful Tom Cutler available. I think we made the right choice with Hewett. It?s not often you see a 17 yo so confident kicking on both sides, and gives RWOers the opportunity to use the ?bifooteral? moniker more often. He already has a complete game and only needs to hone the skills he already brings to the game, and little doubt he will. He?s going to be playing the entire next season as an 18 year old. I am sure he would have been a top 10 pick in 2014. He?s another late birthdate player, like Sam Reid, that looks a winner.
Jones, Hewett and Perris are 3 great midfield prospects that we added to our list this year. Barring injury, they all look likely 200 game players. This seals the deal on our midfield going forward well into the future. Our midfield depth will be so good that I wouldn?t be surprised to see a one or 2 regular senior midfielders traded for high draft picks in the next year or two.
We used pick 35 to take Toby Nankervis. I think he?s a good long term ruck prospect and even a potential replacement for Tippett, once his contract runs out, especially if one of the other myriad ruckmen on the list works out. There were 2 well regarded tall defenders picked between picks 35 and 44, Cameron Giles and Jake Kolodjashnij. And no ruckmen were picked in this part of the draft. I wonder if either of these were rated higher that Aliir, or if Aliir was always going to be the one. We must have really been keen on both Toby and Aliir to have drafted the way we did. We should have been able to calculate that by leaving Toby till pick 44 we could have had Giles instead of Aliir, so you have to figure that Aliir was preferred. We could have taken Matt Sully from the Geelong Falcons at 44, who seems a solid prospect who had a good season. It seems we had Aliir on the list of prospects for some time and put some work into him over the course of the year. If he can learn the technique of defence, he has the other attributes to be a success.
Having sewn players for most parts of the ground in this post season, we can focus on KPPs next year, which is supposed to be quite a bit better for tall players than this draft was. There are also many high draft pick KPPs that GWS will have to unload in the coming years to get their numbers down. I am sure we will be targeting a few. Ben Reid will also become a free agent next year, but doubt if we have the cap to get him.
Some comments on some Second and Third year players :
Remarkably only Alex Brown was delisted from this group. He seemed to have a good season, perhaps even better than Jordon Lockyer, who was probably the other candidate for delisting. But Lockyer closed the season in fairly good form and probably due to his size and upside potential was seen as the better long term prospect. There?s plenty of competition for that 4th defender role (the one played by Marty Mattner types) with Rampe doing so well and Laidler added to the list. It?s a really important role in the modern game as it takes in a wide variety of jobs, from covering resting ruckmen to being loose man in defence as well as providing rebound out of defence.
Matt Dick just turned 19, so still has plenty of potential improvement in him. He?s already a good size (not a skinny kid) and is very quick. He?s shown some good skills at times and should be challenging for those hard to get mid-size defender spots.
Shane Biggs is being retained as a 3rd year rookie. He surprised with his composure in the several senior games he?s played. He?s got a lot of competition for a spot in the team, so will likely have to raise his game to another level to make it.
Membrey may have to wait until ROK retires to get his chance as the mid-size forward. He had a good season and looks a shoe-in for a spot at some point in the future. Hard to say how much opportunity he will get next season.
Dean Towers has shown some flashes of brilliance, but should have produced more given his high draft pick and age. He has the tools to be an Isaac Smith type player. These sort of players need to find ways to get into the game.
Jake Lloyd was our top vote getter in the reserves and deservedly so. He reminds me so much of Jarrad McVeigh. He seems to know where to go to get into the game and make an impact. He probably needs to put on a bit of bulk, but seems to have all the tools to be a solid player. The mental side of his game is very strong.
Dan Robinson looks to be a quiet achiever. He had a solid year, and joined Lloyd in the NEAFL AA team. Is a very composed player and has the size to play inside as well as the skill and speed to do so damage on the outside. He can kick a long goal on the run as well.
Harry Marsh had his season curtailed by a hamstring injury in the second half of the year, but seems to be up and running and did well in the 3k run. He was drafted having played mostly as a halfback, but seems that we have decided to put Matt Dick in defence and train up Harry as an inside midfielder. I can see him being a Ryan Crowley type defensive midfielder, as they have similar size and skill sets. His speed should allow him to play on quicker outside players and he can do so damage with his kicking.
2014
Our list has more youthful look to it than it did a few years ago. You can see us doing very well without the reliance on aging stars Goodes, ROK and Shaw. Buddy, Tippett, Reid and Rohan seem a forward group that can cause plenty of hurt in the coming years. We had a very strong midfield draft this year. Except for Aliir, we didn?t go for speculative picks. Jones, Hewett and Perris were all rated quite highly by most experts and amateur draft watchers alike. We have a number of players that are coming back from long-term injuries and are not yet part of the main training group; how these players recover may have a big impact on our year.
I heard another comment from Goodes that he wants to play until he?s 40. I think he should be looking at playing the Sub role a bit if he?s serious about that. I think that?s his perfect spot at age 34.
There will be plenty of unsettled issues going into the pre-season and lots of competition for spots all over the ground. Questions arise like:
1. If AG plays forward, can Reid play forward as well?
2. Is there a place for Benny in the side, or does BJ elevation to the senior list spell the end for him?
3. Will Harry Cunningham get more playing time?
4. Is there a place for Rhyce Shaw, even with a full ACL recovery?
5. Should ROK move to the forward line and resume his old role, giving Mitchell, Parker and Bird more time on ball?
6. What to do about LRT? You can?t leave him out, but where does he play? Does he take Grundy?s spot?
7. There was a lot of love for Jeremy Laidler amongst the Carlton fans. Can he hold a spot in our backline?
So we go into next season with 9 list changes or 20% of the list. Despite the angst of many over the fallout from the Buddy deal, I think we did quite well in the post season. I thought we had a strong team last year, but were cruelled by injuries. This year we look even stronger.
Bring it on.
Mumford was the departure that was a planned consequence of the Buddy deal, and we were ready to go with a Pyke-Tippett ruck combo into 2014 and try to do our best to fill the depth hole left by big Mummy. We decided to cut Alex Brown as we didn?t want to carry 2 project 3rd defenders into another year, and he lost out to Jordon Lockyer, who may in turn lose his jumper number in the Buddy fallout. Jude, Morton and Mattner retired. White, Everett, Armstrong and Lamb were all outside of best 22, although it seems we would have liked to retain Jed. I thought both Jesse and Dre improved a lot in 2013, but would find it difficult to make our best 22 in 2014 and given their age deserve a chance to be senior players. We preferred not to get any compensation for Jeb to make a point with GWS ? the war is ON. I think we will be targeting their list for some time to come. We didn?t get well compensated for our player departures, but as it turned out, it was probably just enough to get us what we wanted in the draft.
Jeremy Laidler is a great pickup. I?m sure he doesn?t see himself a depth player and has every chance to assume the role vacated by Marty Mattner, irrespective of what Dane Rampe has done. Laidler could we come into the 22, but I don?t think is will be at the expense of pushing Dane out.
Patrick Mitchell is an interesting prospect that is part of the long-term plan to use one spot on the list for experimenting with a foreign player from another sport. We have had big successes with Kennelly and Pyke, but a few others didn?t work out, with Tommy Walsh likely to add to that list soon. Indications are that he is playing out his contract then heading home.
Lloyd Perris was an excellent rookie signing given that he was likely to get picked in the second round, and maybe even in the 20s.
Tom Derickx is a strange one, especially given how the draft turned out and the selections we made. The only reason I can see for signing him before the ND was that some other team was competing for his signature. As unlikely as that seems, why else would we take him when we could have seen how the draft went and either picked him up at pick 53, signed him after the ND or gotten him as a rookie, or alternatively, not taken him at all and use pick 44 for someone else and 53 on Aliir. If we were only looking for a backup for Pyke, why did we have to take so many ruckmen? You would think we already had plans to take either Lobb or Nankervis in the draft, so why commit so early on Derickx. To me it seems we went into ruck overkill, as both Toby and Aliir can play in the ruck, which means that we now have 6 (Derickx, Toby, LRT, Naismith, Mitchell and Aliir) backup ruckmen. Mummy has such big shoes to fill; it?s going to take 6 men to do it. We are unlikely to ever know the true story, but it seems that something got screwed up and we effectively gave up pick 53 for Tom. It?s not a big deal, but there were some interesting alternatives.
The National Draft
The draft went deeper than many had expected at first, with some good selections to be had into the early 30s. Lewis Taylor dropping 28, Dumont at 30 and Cutler at 33 were all being considered as possible first round picks.
The 2 expansion teams pulled a few surprises. When the rumour was floated that we were interested in McCarthy at pick 15, I joked that we started it to trick GWS into taking him to spoil our party, even though it was so unlikely we would be interested in taking another tall forward after just landing both Tippett and Franklin. And the Giants seem even more unlikely than us to pick him. Where in the world does McCarthy go in a forward line that will include Cameron, Boyd, Patton and Tomlinson. If not to be a spoiler, then perhaps they are stocking up on talent and plan to trade Patton for a first round pick or experienced star next year.
GC were a big surprise by picking Leslie and Lemmens with their picks 20 and 27; both were not expected to go earlier than the 3rd round. This helped our situation a lot but pushing some of the more highly touted talent down the pecking order.
Brisbane did a great job replacing their big exit of young players and look better off for the process.
Collingwood seem another winner in the off season. They lost a few experienced players, but got Taylor Adams and Jesse White, who should both fit into their 22. Karnezis and Tony Armstrong could also be handy. They really nailed the draft picking up 2 great prospects in Scharenberg and Freeman with their 1st round picks. Tom Langdon was a good one for a 4th rounder and amazingly Jonathon Marsh was still around at pick 77. The loss of our pick 53 irks me because it would seem a great get for the last spot on the list. I wonder if we perhaps don?t have much expectation for Harry Marsh and expect he won?t be retained for 2015 and bringing his brother in would make that a difficult cut; but that?s just pure conjecture.
The Swans Draft
Going into the draft the only one we picked that was on my radar was George Hewett, and just thrilled that we go him at pick 32. I was hoping that Blake Acres would be available at pick 15 and he was. But we decided to go with Zak Jones. In retrospect, this appears a very good choice. He seems the epitome of a Swans? player. Already a 2-way player with a good defensive game, he has a good burst of speed and the kind of work ethic the Swans love. The total package makes him a great 1st round selection. It?s hard to imagine him joining our long and depressing list of 1st round failures.
I thought we might use pick 32 or 35 for a tall defender. Given that Brisbane, sitting with the picks in between had already taken Gardiner and McStay, we could be fairly confident that they were not going to take another defender and could use 32 for our second non KPP pick. Fortunately, we had both Hewett and first round hopeful Tom Cutler available. I think we made the right choice with Hewett. It?s not often you see a 17 yo so confident kicking on both sides, and gives RWOers the opportunity to use the ?bifooteral? moniker more often. He already has a complete game and only needs to hone the skills he already brings to the game, and little doubt he will. He?s going to be playing the entire next season as an 18 year old. I am sure he would have been a top 10 pick in 2014. He?s another late birthdate player, like Sam Reid, that looks a winner.
Jones, Hewett and Perris are 3 great midfield prospects that we added to our list this year. Barring injury, they all look likely 200 game players. This seals the deal on our midfield going forward well into the future. Our midfield depth will be so good that I wouldn?t be surprised to see a one or 2 regular senior midfielders traded for high draft picks in the next year or two.
We used pick 35 to take Toby Nankervis. I think he?s a good long term ruck prospect and even a potential replacement for Tippett, once his contract runs out, especially if one of the other myriad ruckmen on the list works out. There were 2 well regarded tall defenders picked between picks 35 and 44, Cameron Giles and Jake Kolodjashnij. And no ruckmen were picked in this part of the draft. I wonder if either of these were rated higher that Aliir, or if Aliir was always going to be the one. We must have really been keen on both Toby and Aliir to have drafted the way we did. We should have been able to calculate that by leaving Toby till pick 44 we could have had Giles instead of Aliir, so you have to figure that Aliir was preferred. We could have taken Matt Sully from the Geelong Falcons at 44, who seems a solid prospect who had a good season. It seems we had Aliir on the list of prospects for some time and put some work into him over the course of the year. If he can learn the technique of defence, he has the other attributes to be a success.
Having sewn players for most parts of the ground in this post season, we can focus on KPPs next year, which is supposed to be quite a bit better for tall players than this draft was. There are also many high draft pick KPPs that GWS will have to unload in the coming years to get their numbers down. I am sure we will be targeting a few. Ben Reid will also become a free agent next year, but doubt if we have the cap to get him.
Some comments on some Second and Third year players :
Remarkably only Alex Brown was delisted from this group. He seemed to have a good season, perhaps even better than Jordon Lockyer, who was probably the other candidate for delisting. But Lockyer closed the season in fairly good form and probably due to his size and upside potential was seen as the better long term prospect. There?s plenty of competition for that 4th defender role (the one played by Marty Mattner types) with Rampe doing so well and Laidler added to the list. It?s a really important role in the modern game as it takes in a wide variety of jobs, from covering resting ruckmen to being loose man in defence as well as providing rebound out of defence.
Matt Dick just turned 19, so still has plenty of potential improvement in him. He?s already a good size (not a skinny kid) and is very quick. He?s shown some good skills at times and should be challenging for those hard to get mid-size defender spots.
Shane Biggs is being retained as a 3rd year rookie. He surprised with his composure in the several senior games he?s played. He?s got a lot of competition for a spot in the team, so will likely have to raise his game to another level to make it.
Membrey may have to wait until ROK retires to get his chance as the mid-size forward. He had a good season and looks a shoe-in for a spot at some point in the future. Hard to say how much opportunity he will get next season.
Dean Towers has shown some flashes of brilliance, but should have produced more given his high draft pick and age. He has the tools to be an Isaac Smith type player. These sort of players need to find ways to get into the game.
Jake Lloyd was our top vote getter in the reserves and deservedly so. He reminds me so much of Jarrad McVeigh. He seems to know where to go to get into the game and make an impact. He probably needs to put on a bit of bulk, but seems to have all the tools to be a solid player. The mental side of his game is very strong.
Dan Robinson looks to be a quiet achiever. He had a solid year, and joined Lloyd in the NEAFL AA team. Is a very composed player and has the size to play inside as well as the skill and speed to do so damage on the outside. He can kick a long goal on the run as well.
Harry Marsh had his season curtailed by a hamstring injury in the second half of the year, but seems to be up and running and did well in the 3k run. He was drafted having played mostly as a halfback, but seems that we have decided to put Matt Dick in defence and train up Harry as an inside midfielder. I can see him being a Ryan Crowley type defensive midfielder, as they have similar size and skill sets. His speed should allow him to play on quicker outside players and he can do so damage with his kicking.
2014
Our list has more youthful look to it than it did a few years ago. You can see us doing very well without the reliance on aging stars Goodes, ROK and Shaw. Buddy, Tippett, Reid and Rohan seem a forward group that can cause plenty of hurt in the coming years. We had a very strong midfield draft this year. Except for Aliir, we didn?t go for speculative picks. Jones, Hewett and Perris were all rated quite highly by most experts and amateur draft watchers alike. We have a number of players that are coming back from long-term injuries and are not yet part of the main training group; how these players recover may have a big impact on our year.
I heard another comment from Goodes that he wants to play until he?s 40. I think he should be looking at playing the Sub role a bit if he?s serious about that. I think that?s his perfect spot at age 34.
There will be plenty of unsettled issues going into the pre-season and lots of competition for spots all over the ground. Questions arise like:
1. If AG plays forward, can Reid play forward as well?
2. Is there a place for Benny in the side, or does BJ elevation to the senior list spell the end for him?
3. Will Harry Cunningham get more playing time?
4. Is there a place for Rhyce Shaw, even with a full ACL recovery?
5. Should ROK move to the forward line and resume his old role, giving Mitchell, Parker and Bird more time on ball?
6. What to do about LRT? You can?t leave him out, but where does he play? Does he take Grundy?s spot?
7. There was a lot of love for Jeremy Laidler amongst the Carlton fans. Can he hold a spot in our backline?
So we go into next season with 9 list changes or 20% of the list. Despite the angst of many over the fallout from the Buddy deal, I think we did quite well in the post season. I thought we had a strong team last year, but were cruelled by injuries. This year we look even stronger.
Bring it on.
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