Rookies

[chuckie]

What is going to happen with our current list of rookies.
Apart from Perris and Mitchell the others will all be coming to the end of their 2 year contracts or in Biggs case 3 years.
In an ideal world we would love to keep all of them but i can't see us keeping more than 2.
I think Robinson will get cut and another one will be rookied again but after that it becomes hard.
With the probable inclusion of Heeney and Dunkley next year and at least one trade or free agent the 2 elevations will be it unless we have a big cull or retirements so which rookies do we keep.

[liz]

We won't have Dunkley next year. He's not eligible until 2015 draft.

There are a couple of other Academy players that may be in contention for a list spot, whether rookie or senior. Abe Davis is one - a regular RAMS team member and the advantage of being KPP height and build.

Suspect that the club will be keen to keep Naismith in some capacity for another year. He is making good progress and tall, agile rucks don't grow on trees. X also fills a future possible need as a tall defender.

[Ludwig]

Dunkley not eligible until 2015 draft.

The way I see it at this point, which could easily change based on performance:

Pat Mithcell and Perris continue on as 2nd year rookies.
Robinson gets 3rd year rookie status.

Biggs, Lloyd, Naismith and X Richards get elevated.

We take Heeney plus another live pick in the national draft.

That leaves 6 seniors delistings or retirements. The most likely to go IMO are as follows:

1. ROK
2. LRT
3. Shaw (Would like to play on, but we need the list space)
4. Walsh (Must really show something to get another contract)
5. Marsh
6. Lockyer
7. Derickx (Pyke, Naismith and Nanko likely to be in front and 3 is enough on the list)
8. Goodes (Too early to say what will happen. Hope he regains fitness and can continue on)

Marsh and Lockyer can probably be rookied if we want to keep them as I doubt anyone else will pick them up.

It seems that Matt Dick has been doing better than Lockyer and Marsh recently.

Academy player Abe Davis might get a rookie spot.

[Auntie.Gerald]

i dont think Biggs will be needed if Laidler, Alir, X and Jones improve through out 2014.........and now that Rohan has shifted to the backline experiment in the ressies....i do think Marsh has much better skills for HBF then he does midfield and given that Marsh is under midfield progress for one more season (3yrs draft) he will stay ahead of biggs

Agree ROK and LRT will struggle to continue past 2014 season

agree shaw and Goodes may not be offered another year even though Shaw is playing quite well now in a winning team

agree Lockyear will definitely move on and i dont think that Dick will have a spot given Rampe and Laidler

[Matt80]

Dunkley not eligible until 2015 draft.

The way I see it at this point, which could easily change based on performance:

Pat Mithcell and Perris continue on as 2nd year rookies.
Robinson gets 3rd year rookie status.

Biggs, Lloyd, Naismith and X Richards get elevated.

We take Heeney plus another live pick in the national draft.

That leaves 6 seniors delistings or retirements. The most likely to go IMO are as follows:

1. ROK
2. LRT
3. Shaw (Would like to play on, but we need the list space)
4. Walsh (Must really show something to get another contract)
5. Marsh
6. Lockyer
7. Derickx (Pyke, Naismith and Nanko likely to be in front and 3 is enough on the list)
8. Goodes (Too early to say what will happen. Hope he regains fitness and can continue on)

Marsh and Lockyer can probably be rookied if we want to keep them as I doubt anyone else will pick them up.

It seems that Matt Dick has been doing better than Lockyer and Marsh recently.

Academy player Abe Davis might get a rookie spot.

Superb analysis. I think that ROK, Walsh, Marsh, Dick and Lockyer will move on.

LRT may get another year, but only in the event of a long term injury to Grundy or Ted Richards. I can't see LRT being a forward or ruckman anymore.

Shaw may get one more year as he is still delivering, but his fate depends on the progress of Rohan and Biggs as small/ backman.

Derickx will continue due to his improvement and the fact that next year our number one ruck will be 31 and our two others are still very young in rucking terms.

Goodes will depend on how he is feeling himself. I think he is not far away from a big improvement in form.

There may some guys who want to seek trades due to lack of opportunity:

Tom Mitchell, Membrey and Towers may be in this category. Mitchell would have good currency, but Towers and Membey would go cheap unless they can break into the senior side and have some good performances as senior level.

Alex Johnson is still unsigned for 2015 and retirement can't be totally ruled out. He will be out for two years by the start of 2015. It will depend on his mental state and his will to continue. They club will give him every opportunity to keep going. We have seen with the Mitch Clarke situation that long stints on the sideline can be mentally debilitating.

I think Lloyd is an upgrade certainty. If Biggs can break into the senior team and play well then he will be upgraded. I think Naismith will get the 3rd year rookie spot.

Whether X Richards gets upgraded depends on whether or not you can get a more promising key defensive prospect in the 2nd or 3rd round of the draft. If the draft is weak on key defensive prospect then he may get on the senior list. If we trade and get another key defensive player, then he will be delisted.

[Ludwig]

A couple of comments on the above comments:

I think we should keep Robinson at the 3rd year rookie, as he's been the 2nd best reserves player over the past 2 seasons, just behind Jake Lloyd.

If we have any depth problems, it's in defence because of age and injury concerns. Biggs has been our best medium defender and showed his worth at senior level. Dick has been one of our most improved players and is a medium defender as well. Both have good pace. Shaw may retire and Malceski turns 30 this year. I think Richards is still ahead of Allir despite some of AA's promising form. Can't afford to delist KPDs at this time.

[BobLog]

Fantastic work you lot. I agree with you all mostly. What makes everyone so sure we will get Heeney? He is on the radar down here in Melbourne with his current form. I would have thought we'd use our top pick for a key defender given Richards and Grundys ages.

[Auntie.Gerald]

one word

Aliir !!!

spoke to a young GWS player i know the other day who matched up on Rohan.......and he said he was very impressed by Aliir and was surprised how well developed he appears for a KPP defender roles in Snrs sooner then later

[Matt80]

It's good to hear that Aliir is going well and X Richards got a good rap in the recent NEAFL. The problem that both have is that T.Richards and Grundy have been incredibly durable over the last 3 seasons. We have not had an opportunity to look at them at senior level. I suspect if one of Grundy or Richards went down,LRT would be the call up. If two went down then Reid would came down from the forward line.

Be great if we could get to a really strong position before the finals and rest half our team (Fremantle did it last round, last year) and give debuts to Aliir, Membrey, Towers, Toby N, Zak Jones etc.

We will see!

[Nico]

I don't get the Shaw for retirement bit. He is playing pretty good footy and again is giving us good run out of defence that we missed last year. It is very hard to predict when a player is "going to go one year too many".

[Ludwig]

I don't get the Shaw for retirement bit. He is playing pretty good footy and again is giving us good run out of defence that we missed last year. It is very hard to predict when a player is "going to go one year too many".

It's just a list management issue. It may come down to something like giving Shaw another year but being forced to delist Biggs to do it. It's why players like Paul Chapman, who still plenty to offer are let go by very well managed clubs like Geelong. Sadly, it's a tough gig.

[MightyBloods]

Fantastic work you lot. I agree with you all mostly. What makes everyone so sure we will get Heeney? He is on the radar down here in Melbourne with his current form. I would have thought we'd use our top pick for a key defender given Richards and Grundys ages.

Firstly, most recruiting people rate Heeney as the best (or close to the best) midfielder in the draft. We have first dibs on him as he's an Academy player. We will nominate him in the draft under father/son rules and we will probably use our first round pick (likely to be pick 15 to pick 18....a bargain. He also is already embedded into the Swans system and his hero is none other than Kieran Jack. We'd be crazy to pass on him.

Also, history tells you that picking midfielders early in the draft pays dividends. Not many success stories on ruckman, KPP in first picks unless you have a top 3 pick. I'm a believer in picking the best midfielders/mid-sized players early in the draft and get your ruckman and KPPs through trades or free agents. The bigger sized players take years to develop and are more risky propositions.

[Matt80]

Firstly, most recruiting people rate Heeney as the best (or close to the best) midfielder in the draft. We have first dibs on him as he's an Academy player. We will nominate him in the draft under father/son rules and we will probably use our first round pick (likely to be pick 15 to pick 18....a bargain. He also is already embedded into the Swans system and his hero is none other than Kieran Jack. We'd be crazy to pass on him.

Also, history tells you that picking midfielders early in the draft pays dividends. Not many success stories on ruckman, KPP in first picks unless you have a top 3 pick. I'm a believer in picking the best midfielders/mid-sized players early in the draft and get your ruckman and KPPs through trades or free agents. The bigger sized players take years to develop and are more risky propositions.

It's for this reason that I proposed the Tom Mitchell trade. As well as Tom not getting the senior game time he deserves, it's increasingly hard for young midfielders to get a game. Heeney will be drafted by the Swans and won't get a senior game until his third year if all the midfielders stay healthy.

Jay Viney is a second year player at Melbourne who is thriving due to senior opportunity. Zak Jones is a first round pick who is a long way from senior opportunity due to the depth of midfielders.

[BobLog]

[QUOTE=MightyBloods;641257]Firstly, most recruiting people rate Heeney as the best (or close to the best) midfielder in the draft. We have first dibs on him as he's an Academy player. We will nominate him in the draft under father/son rules and we will probably use our first round pick (likely to be pick 15 to pick 18....a bargain. He also is already embedded into the Swans system and his hero is none other than Kieran Jack. We'd be crazy to pass on him.

Thanks for the info. I was unaware that swans academy players meant that they couldn't be drafted before our pick if we nominated them. Excellent news. He's going to be a very good footballer

[mcs]

It's for this reason that I proposed the Tom Mitchell trade. As well as Tom not getting the senior game time he deserves, it's increasingly hard for young midfielders to get a game. Heeney will be drafted by the Swans and won't get a senior game until his third year if all the midfielders stay healthy.

Jay Viney is a second year player at Melbourne who is thriving due to senior opportunity. Zak Jones is a first round pick who is a long way from senior opportunity due to the depth of midfielders.

Surely football clearly shows that you shouldn't trade solely on the basis of 'potential' and 'opportunity.' Tom Mitchell is far from disproven at the top level. His numbers so far are what you'd expect from a young midfielder - a bit up and down, but very promising (much like Parker was in his 1st season). If he was a hack and not up to it, I'd be all for trading for him.

But, and I think its a matter of when not if, Mitchell begins to consistently reproduce his junior/reserves form in the top league, then he is going to be an elite midfielder. We would be absolutely crazy to trade him, just on the basis that we think heeney has lots of potential, and that we need to give opportunities to other youngsters.

Its hard to win premierships without depth, and without significant competition for places. I always think, in the end, the cream will rise to the top. If Heeney is as good as everyone thinks, and for instance Zak Jones is so good, then they will work hard and get themselves to a position where they are clearly a member of the Best 22 at the club, and hence get a game in the Seniors. I don't think list management should be played upon 'hypotheticals' - that is a very risky game indeed.

. IMO, if you are going to trade players, it should only ever be absolute hacks, players that want to leave, or big names if you are offered ridiculous currency for them (no one is every irreplacable). You shouldn't trade players, especially ones of the potential quality of Tom mitchell, just for the sake of providing 'opportunities' for others. You trade players for that reason if they are 'list cloggers', and I'm happy to conclude that a player that got 64 touches in a game (NEAFL I know, but still!) is not in that category.