Round 18: Sydney Swans Reserves v Brisbane Lions Reserves

[liz]

I would put robinson in front of marsh as well.

I don't think there is any question that Robinson is currently a more accomplished and consistent player than Marsh. But it comes down to how much scope for improvement each player has, and how likely they are to get close to their ceiling. Robinson does most things well but doesn't have any stand out features. He's a good, hard worker and I think would probably be able to do OK at senior level. Marsh is quicker and taller and thus has the potential to be more damaging. It comes down to whether he has the nous and/or work ethic to use his physical attributes to better advantage than he currently has been able to do.

Dick is similarly taller and quicker - and rawer - than Robinson.

[Ludwig]

We've had an unusually good run with late national draft and rookie picks in the last few years, particularly 2012, and wouldn't expect that to continue. The more usual case is that we bring in a handful of rookies and perhaps one makes it.

When I think about delisting a player, I consider what the chances are that we will get someone better from late in the draft. I haven't been a big fan of Walsh nor do I think that Richards has looked all that promising, but given our lack of depth in the KPD area, I wouldn't be so quick to drop them, although I would be more inclined to keep Walsh another year if given the choice.

My defence of Lockyer has also been along these lines. I know possessions are not everything, but he is averaging 25 this year, as well as 4 tackles, so he is looking okay on the the stat sheet at least. Would I drop him for another rookie pick? If I didn't think he could progress any further, sure; otherwise I would give him another year.

I would be quicker to drop a midfielder as we have so much depth in that area. The path is looking near impossible for Marsh at this this point, and perhaps Robinson as well, although he does deserve another year on merit.

[Matt80]

We've had an unusually good run with late national draft and rookie picks in the last few years, particularly 2012, and wouldn't expect that to continue. The more usual case is that we bring in a handful of rookies and perhaps one makes it.

When I think about delisting a player, I consider what the chances are that we will get someone better from late in the draft. I haven't been a big fan of Walsh nor do I think that Richards has looked all that promising, but given our lack of depth in the KPD area, I wouldn't be so quick to drop them, although I would be more inclined to keep Walsh another year if given the choice.

My defence of Lockyer has also been along these lines. I know possessions are not everything, but he is averaging 25 this year, as well as 4 tackles, so he is looking okay on the the stat sheet at least. Would I drop him for another rookie pick? If I didn't think he could progress any further, sure; otherwise I would give him another year.

I would be quicker to drop a midfielder as we have so much depth in that area. The path is looking near impossible for Marsh at this this point, and perhaps Robinson as well, although he does deserve another year on merit.

Is it a minumum three players that we need to take at the NAB November Draft?

Do we only need to take two players if we upgrade a rookie with a late pick?

[wolftone57]

How about he aims to be better than Luke Ablett first and then upwards from there???

I liked Tommy Walsh's game on Friday too from what I saw. He moved well and took some good intercept marks down back. Dunno if he's off at the end of this year but I still think he'd have some value next year if retained.

And LRT phoned it in on Friday - he can see the end.

I have been screaming for Tommy to play FB, CHB for two years. Saw him play some games there when the opposition had a huge forward and he always played really well. I don't and have never thought him a forward. He is a natural backman. He has been doing a great job back there and his performance on the weekend was wonderful. I hope we keep him as the next tall defender to play on the ruckmen etc just in case Reg or Teddy go down. The other thing is Teddy is now 31 & Reg 28 and while Reg has probably 3 to 4 years left Teddy is probably in his last 2-3. always good to have a fine back up and I think Tommy would be just that.

[wolftone57]

And I thought that I might be a bit effusive in praise of Hewett. But good to see everyone is really positive about him.

Probably you and Liz are right on Lockyer. I haven't been impressed either, but thought he improved enough from last year to feel that given enough time could make the grade. He definitely seems to be getting more involved in general play than last year and his closing speed is good. He was a highly rated junior and expected to go somewhere in the 20s in the draft, not to say that bears on how well he is doing now, only that others have seen something promising in the kid.

The one that worries me is Xav. You were downright effervescent about him last year, but I haven't seen any improvement this year, and if anything, seems to have gone backwards. You said he played well on Friday, but watching the replay on the NT Thunder game left me wondering. He was soundly beaten by a slower and shorter opponent and his disposal was dreadful at times.

Xav was just back from injury against Thunder. It was his first game back. He was probably a bit rusty and lacking match practice. He played well on Friday night. The other thing is that the travelling to NT is pretty daunting and not too many sides play well there. The humidity takes it's toll and the trip up is certainly something these blokes are not used to. Not making excuses for him but he will be ok and proved pretty good on Friday against a good opponent. He still gets caught daydreaming at times but he'll learn. He is only young and a developing key back. we all know they, like key forwards, take longer. Give him time. Lockyer on the other hand just doesn't show enough to me to think he has a future. I thought he was going to be a good prospect in his first few matches but after returning from injury he hasn't shown that same talent. He is serviceable for the Twos that is all, he has to be more than that. Hewett on the other hand is really exciting and has bought into the culture, that is obvious. He wants to play in a premiership desperately. He comes from a background of playing in premierships.

While I am on playing in premierships. I would like to point out a drafting strategy that seems to be something we are using. We are drafting players who have had success at junior level and crave success. Parker, Hannas, Jetts, Hewett, AJ, Smithy, Towers, Membrey, Lloyd, Mitchell, Bird, Jones, etc. They have all experienced success at junior level or higher before being drafted to the Swans. There may be more but the fact is that once a player experiences the jubilation of a premiership they want it again and again and again. Several of them were captains of their junior teams such as Lukie Parker & Nicky Smith. Success builds success as my old coach used to say. If a club doesn't have a history and atmosphere of success you have to get players who come from successful clubs, whether junior or senior to build that. We did that and won in 2005 and have continued to follow that road ever since.

[wolftone57]

As long he brings more Barry Robran than Grenville Dietrich, and doesn't suffer the same career-ending injury on the SCG as Robran, sounds good.

Definitely not built like Grenville. Though Grenville did kick a lot of goals I don't think he'd get a kick in today's footy. Yes I hope he stays injury free too.

[wolftone57]

We've had an unusually good run with late national draft and rookie picks in the last few years, particularly 2012, and wouldn't expect that to continue. The more usual case is that we bring in a handful of rookies and perhaps one makes it.

When I think about delisting a player, I consider what the chances are that we will get someone better from late in the draft. I haven't been a big fan of Walsh nor do I think that Richards has looked all that promising, but given our lack of depth in the KPD area, I wouldn't be so quick to drop them, although I would be more inclined to keep Walsh another year if given the choice.

My defence of Lockyer has also been along these lines. I know possessions are not everything, but he is averaging 25 this year, as well as 4 tackles, so he is looking okay on the the stat sheet at least. Would I drop him for another rookie pick? If I didn't think he could progress any further, sure; otherwise I would give him another year.

I would be quicker to drop a midfielder as we have so much depth in that area. The path is looking near impossible for Marsh at this this point, and perhaps Robinson as well, although he does deserve another year on merit.

Ludwig Lockyer has been getting those disposals off a wing not on the back flank which is what he was drafted for. We have plenty of wingers and he isn't particularly fast. The same with Dick, although faster than Lockyer, he has played quite a bit up the ground, although last weekend he played back. When I look at a players being retained I look at several things; does he do the one percenters?, Does he run, chaser & tackle?, Does he blanket his opponent?, Is he winning the contests?, Does he have the capacity or look like he can take it to the next level? I don't think these players can take it to the next level at our club; Lockyer, Dick, Marsh. I am still making my mind up about Patrick Mitchell (needs another year to see if he develops), Perris (not that impressive in the games he did play & then got injured, needs a full year or two), Robbo (he shows all the class at times then lets himself down doing the basics, more concentration for longer periods, works very hard though), Xav Richards (was coming along nicely until injured. Has concentration lapses that are costly though, needs to fix these up).

These players I think will definitely be retained and I would be very surprised to see them go;

Biggs (has a lot more up than downs. Is a very good kick and his handball under pressure is very good, he doesn't panic)
Walsh (Tommy has found his place at FB or CHB playing on the monster forwards. He is very good at this and I am peeved it took the coaches this long to realise just how good he could be)
Aliir Aliir (he showed more than enough to be retained and he will be a good player down the track)
Naismith (he is a good young ruckman and is developing nicely)
Nankervis (He has shown enough to be retained and is also going to develop nicely)

[wolftone57]

Despite my positive comments on Hewett, I think there is some serious hyperbole in this thread about a young, still skinny kid who thus far has played some handy games at NEAFL level. Suggestions that he shapes as being better than two time Swans B&F and premiership captain McVeigh are hugely premature. As for GAJ...

Of course, he "might" become a good player. He "might" even become a very good player. But projecting that far forward for a kid yet to play a senior game verges on the ridiculous, IMHO. Just let the kid play!

Party Pooper!

I have a pretty good record of picking them. Some of them were easy like Hannas or Smithy. But I picked AJ as a bolter. Lukie Parker as a potential star & captain. Jake Lloyd, Jetts, BJ, Harry all impressed me early. I pick players I think are footballers not athletes although they have to be athletic. If a player is an athlete he probably should be in the Olympics not my footy team. Yes I am impressed by Biggs, because he is a footballer. Membrey & Towers too, they are all footballers with athleticism not athletes. If they don't make it here I am sure they will all have careers elsewhere, I would just prefer they had careers here as they all have something special to bring to the table.

[Ludwig]

Thanks for the detailed analysis Wolf. I think you have the criteria right on how to determine who is likely to make it. Now that I live in Thailand I'm lucky to get to a game once in 2 years, so love to hear the opinions of those who see the players live in action.

I thought we drafted well when we picked Lockyer, Dick and Marsh, so it's a bit of a disappointment if none of them come through.

I think you are right about Walsh playing fullback. I had my doubts he could recover from that hamstring tendon injury. Walsh and Xav could be critical to how the backline goes in the future as I think it's our only vulnerability for some years to come.

[wolftone57]

Thanks for the detailed analysis Wolf. I think you have the criteria right on how to determine who is likely to make it. Now that I live in Thailand I'm lucky to get to a game once in 2 years, so love to hear the opinions of those who see the players live in action.

I thought we drafted well when we picked Lockyer, Dick and Marsh, so it's a bit of a disappointment if none of them come through.

I think you are right about Walsh playing fullback. I had my doubts he could recover from that hamstring tendon injury. Walsh and Xav could be critical to how the backline goes in the future as I think it's our only vulnerability for some years to come.

Yes it does seem a vulnerability but I think with drafting Aliir & Xav plus rescuing Tommy from Melbourne we have gone a short way to plugging the gap. We now need to look to the draft to get a couple of young tall defenders for the future. They could be drafted in the next draft or the next two. I was also a bit disappointed about Marsh & Lockyer. dick was always going to be a project player as he had some major flaws. By this I mean his decision making and delivery. They can both still be a problem. Lockyer and Marsh just haven't developed to the standard that is required. Lockyer has done better in my opinion. Marsh does something Towers has been accused of, he disappears for long periods. I don't think Deano is quite as bad as Harry unfortunately for Harry. Harry can do some absolutely brilliant things and you think wow here we go! Then absolutely nothing, just doesn't do anything for the rest of the quarter. Sometimes he has a blinder of a quarter something like 10-15 possessions and then goes missing for the next two. Frustrating. He could be VERY good but!!@!

[Matt80]

Thanks for the detailed analysis Wolf. I think you have the criteria right on how to determine who is likely to make it. Now that I live in Thailand I'm lucky to get to a game once in 2 years, so love to hear the opinions of those who see the players live in action.

I thought we drafted well when we picked Lockyer, Dick and Marsh, so it's a bit of a disappointment if none of them come through.

I think you are right about Walsh playing fullback. I had my doubts he could recover from that hamstring tendon injury. Walsh and Xav could be critical to how the backline goes in the future as I think it's our only vulnerability for some years to come.

Assume you keep Walsh who can play on big forwards.

Who is the better backline prospect between X Richards and Abe Davis?

Does Davis have more upside than Richards? This could determine Richards future.

[Xie Shan]

There is a fairly in-depth review of the reserves' win over Brisbane's reserves by Bonz and Punts in this week's edition of the Swans podcast (from about 10:45 onwards):

We Are Now The Essendon Podcast The Swans Bigfooty Podcast S02E23 - YouTube

[troyjones2525]

Assume you keep Walsh who can play on big forwards.

Who is the better backline prospect between X Richards and Abe Davis?

Does Davis have more upside than Richards? This could determine Richards future.

Abe Davis is 193cm which is key position but these days only just with all the monster forwards coming through! Richards is listed at 196cm so I would imagine that if they think he's got what it takes he'd be worth persevering with! He's still young and most likely raw and hopefully Ted can teach him a few tricks!

[liz]

Abe Davis is 193cm which is key position but these days only just with all the monster forwards coming through! Richards is listed at 196cm so I would imagine that if they think he's got what it takes he'd be worth persevering with! He's still young and most likely raw and hopefully Ted can teach him a few tricks!

Richards is also genuinely quick. Much quicker than Ted. Or Reg. it's a handy asset to have as a defender.

From just watching the reserves games I've seen, I'd be keeping X for at least another year. He was in pretty decent form earlier in the season. He may not have improved much as the year has progressed but I still think there is a fair bit to work with. Taller players do take a little time, especially those not in their top handful in their draft year. His relative lack of bulk remains an issue - will he ever add enough size? His pace acts in his favour here, because you can see him starting off at senior level as a third defender type. He has the speed (and the daring) to go for a bit of a dash up the ground, which you want in a third tall type. And the type of opponent he'd be likely to play on would be a bit more nimble and a little shorter than the true key forwards.

The club, obviously, has far more information about him and will have a greater sense for how much scope for improvement he has from his training habits and form, as well as from his personality and commitment.

[ScottH]

Swans Reserves highlights are first.