I watched the R18 loss to Hawthorn again (so you don't have to)

[mcs]

I think it was our strength in 12. Players like Young and Ellis have been cleaned out. The shoemaker replaced by Brian Harris. Our bottom few players are very inexperienced compared to theirs. We are more reliant than them on our gun players firing. We could be a bit exposed at the other end Lloyd, Rohan Cunningham.

Our best is break even I think. Whereas in 12 we had the hardened bodies Kennedy O'keefe Bolton etc. now they edge us there, Lewis Mitchell Hodge

Our advantage is outside run.

I am praying for dry conditions. Maybe Mcveigh to Smith

Certainly experience wise their bottom players have more than ours - but I think they are pretty even really. If our bottom 6 can get over the nerves of GF day, then we might be able to shade it. The key for our bottom 6 players is not to go into their shell, even if early on things don't go their way - especially for someone like Rohan. He was so good against North - and his ability to take on the line and break it could make all the difference in the end. That's where leadership comes into it.

I think we also have the edge in terms of gut running - Port showed that they are still vulnerable endurance wise. This could be a factor if its close late on Saturday, like it was in 2012.

I think we are all praying for dry conditions, as wet conditions swings it significantly Hawthorns way surely.

[crackedactor]

I will likely eat my words but I also looked at the last quarter of Port v Hawthorn. People say that hawthorn took it easy, but as far as I can see they looked tired. I mean if you are only 10 points up surely you need to do some gut running, I did not see too many do that in the last 10 minutes. If is was not for the old brigade of Hodge, Mitchell, roughead etc they would have definetly lost. I am tipping a comfortable win for the swans.

[Maca1701]

Personally I hope Rioli plays. Since 2012, we have played Hawthorn 8 times. When Rioli has played, we are 3-0. However, when he has missed we are 0-5. It may just be a statistical anomaly, but I feel that when he plays Smith goes to him and feels more confident. For whatever reason Breust always seems to get the best of Smith, and when Rioli is in the team, he tends to be featured less. Would love to get other people's take on this.

[barry]

I have a feeling we are going to win by about 40 points.

Hawks are travelling so bad, they shouldnr even be there.

[giant]

Thanks for this Ampersand. The Hawks really exposed a few chinks in our armour that night: Breust on Smith, the lack of run off the half back line, Pyke's effort in the ruck, lack of defensive pressure from the mids - heck the fact we let them score 9 in a row.

Will be a tough day at the office if we haven't learnt from that, but I'm confident we will.

[ernie koala]

It's looking like...... mass hijacking

[Hotpotato]

What has to be prevented is what The Hawks work so hard to do and that is a fast start .
They are ready to go at the first bounce. I just don't want them up by 5 goals in the first 10 mins,
But the other way around would be acceptable .
Horse has to have our boys chilled as much as possible from the first bounce , and his persona is really outstanding in this regard.

[mcs]

What has to be prevented is what The Hawks work so hard to do and that is a fast start .
They are ready to go at the first bounce. I just don't want them up by 5 goals in the first 10 mins,
But the other way around would be acceptable .
Horse has to have our boys chilled as much as possible from the first bounce , and his persona is really outstanding in this regard.

A fast start is critical. What we have shown this year is a very good ability, if we get in front early, to just hold a team at arms length all day long. That is what we all want to see - the Swans jumping out of the blocks, putting the pressure back on the wees and poos and make them chase the game. if we do that, then the game will be on our terms and we should win.

[ernie koala]

To me the most critical thing early in the game will be taking our opportunities....ie: kicking straight !

Generally, if you kick straight early, it takes the pressure off future shots on goal, for the whole team.

And it puts scoreboard pressure on the opposition.

IMO, if our forwards kick a few early, we'll be hard to stop.

[Melbournehammer]

The comments in the op to this thread were accurate and ought be repeated. Parker way down, midfield smashed, Lewis dominant, lake a major inclusion.

The only thing that surprises me is that our coaches clearly had learnt nothing from that game. We simply didn't have a plan to address this.

The first ten minutes we came to play. But jack deciding to hand pass despite going at goal on his left, hanners missing an open goal and goodes dumb hand pass to no one turning it over in the midfield.

From that point on midfield were pantsed

[Ampersand]

That's what really baffles me about the whole thing. We learnt nothing. I think on gameday Longmire is far to slow to react to a losing formula, whereas Clarkson is always adapting his gameplan. It's the reason the Hawks always, always, always manage to swing momentum their way, even when things don't look good.

After the first half in the GF we should have put every single player behind the ball, flooded our defensive 50 and just played ugly, tight defensive footy. Instead we spent the last quarter bombing to Buddy, Tippett and Reid in the forward fifty surrounded by three or four Hawks.

They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Well, if that's the case then Longmire needs to be certified.