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There is no denying it, we are now well into the off-season. After the Wednesday draft there will be little real news to sustain us until the 2015 season begins.
So I thought I'd try something. As I am fond of statistics and charts, I call it "Swans Statistical Stories." The aim is to use the data about Swans games to answer questions that have occurred to me over the years. Hopefully it might be interesting and fun for other people too - suggestions for topics are welcome!
I'll try to post one each month from now to February, this month is:
"Fourth quarter turnarounds"
Time to out myself as a relatively recent fan. I started watching AFL on TV in 2000, but I did not attend a game until 2003. Turned out to be a great choice for my first game: Anzac day game versus Melbourne at the SCG, April 25 2003. Many of you probably remember that the Swans were 3 goals down at three-quarter time, but stormed home with a stunning 10-goal final quarter. Well, I was hooked and have tried to get to most home games since that day.
Recently I realised that I have not seen a Q4 reversal of that size since that game. So I wondered: how unusual is it? How often have the Swans/SMFC been behind at the end of Q3, but gone on to win? Or indeed, been in front but then gone on to lose? And what were the biggest swings?
Those of you who want the gory details of how to compute these numbers (hint: are you excited by the words "R programming language" ?) should go here.
It turns out that in the 2333 games to date, the "win from behind at end of Q3" has happened 171 times. Here are the 10 games with the biggest Q4 winning score reversals.
| Rnd | T | Opponent | Scoring.F | F | Scoring.A | A | R | Venue | Crowd | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R5 | H | Adelaide | 1.4 5.13 9.15 20.24 | 144 | 5.7 7.10 12.14 12.15 | 87 | W | S.C.G. | 15491 | 30-Apr-1995 2:15 PM |
| R19 | A | Kangaroos | 5.4 6.5 12.7 22.12 | 144 | 4.3 10.3 14.6 15.7 | 97 | W | S.C.G. | 14776 | 10-Aug-2002 7:10 PM |
| R8 | H | Fourth quarter turnarounds Geelong | 4.1 5.10 6.12 14.17 | 101 | 5.0 7.0 12.5 13.5 | 83 | W | Lake Oval | 12-Jun-1915 3:00 PM | |
| R5 | A | Richmond | 4.5 7.9 13.15 21.20 | 146 | 5.5 11.8 18.11 19.12 | 126 | W | M.C.G. | 22154 | 25-Apr-1987 2:10 PM |
| R20 | H | Brisbane Bears | 1.6 3.11 4.15 11.20 | 86 | 3.4 4.7 7.11 7.13 | 55 | W | S.C.G. | 5272 | 17-Aug-1990 7:40 PM |
| R2 | H | Footscray | 2.4 6.10 11.12 18.17 | 125 | 5.4 7.8 14.13 14.15 | 99 | W | Lake Oval | 29000 | 06-May-1933 2:45 PM |
| R12 | A | Richmond | 2.3 4.5 8.8 16.12 | 108 | 2.5 5.11 9.14 10.15 | 75 | W | Punt Rd | 27000 | 17-Jul-1926 2:45 PM |
| R5 | H | Melbourne | 2.3 6.4 7.4 17.7 | 109 | 3.2 5.4 10.6 13.7 | 85 | W | S.C.G. | 24286 | 25-Apr-2003 6:45 PM |
| R13 | H | Fitzroy | 4.0 10.1 12.2 19.6 | 120 | 3.9 3.9 11.20 11.22 | 88 | W | Lake Oval | 12000 | 19-Jul-1958 2:15 PM |
| SF | F | Richmond | 2.1 3.5 6.9 14.11 | 95 | 3.4 9.6 10.11 11.11 | 77 | W | M.C.G. | 49303 | 16-Sep-1933 2:30 PM |
So my first game was quite special; it's the 8th largest Q4 score reversal to win of all time.
And now for the downside. At least we have lost fewer times after leading at the end of Q3 than vice-versa: 154 times. Here's the top 10 Q4 losing score reversals.
| Rnd | T | Opponent | Scoring.F | F | Scoring.A | A | R | Venue | Crowd | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R12 | A | Melbourne | 6.3 10.4 14.11 14.12 | 96 | 4.2 8.7 12.11 22.16 | 148 | L | M.C.G. | 26510 | 25-Jul-1936 2:45 PM |
| R4 | A | Melbourne | 3.2 8.4 14.9 15.11 | 101 | 3.3 8.6 12.10 23.15 | 153 | L | M.C.G. | 14569 | 14-May-1938 2:45 PM |
| R6 | A | North Melbourne | 9.3 19.6 21.8 21.8 | 134 | 5.7 13.12 19.18 27.26 | 188 | L | M.C.G. | 15664 | 25-Apr-1991 2:10 PM |
| R13 | H | St Kilda | 4.4 6.6 9.9 9.9 | 63 | 2.4 2.9 3.9 11.14 | 80 | L | Lake Oval | 14380 | 21-Jul-1962 2:20 PM |
| R5 | H | Essendon | 6.4 8.11 17.12 19.16 | 130 | 4.6 10.9 13.15 24.17 | 161 | L | S.C.G. | 13140 | 19-Apr-1991 7:40 PM |
| R4 | A | Fitzroy | 6.3 9.8 16.12 18.16 | 124 | 2.5 6.9 11.10 21.17 | 143 | L | Junction Oval | 13664 | 22-Apr-1978 2:10 PM |
| R19 | A | Footscray | 5.4 6.6 8.8 8.9 | 57 | 3.1 6.6 7.12 15.13 | 103 | L | Western Oval | 12742 | 25-Jul-1992 2:10 PM |
| R5 | H | Essendon | 3.6 5.10 6.12 7.16 | 58 | 2.2 4.11 5.13 14.16 | 100 | L | Lake Oval | 27500 | 18-May-1957 2:15 PM |
| R19 | H | Kangaroos | 5.2 9.3 16.4 18.4 | 112 | 2.4 3.10 8.12 17.16 | 118 | L | S.C.G. | 24028 | 07-Aug-2004 7:10 PM |
| R7 | A | Essendon | 3.1 7.4 11.7 11.10 | 76 | 1.2 3.5 9.7 16.12 | 108 | L | Windy Hill | 12000 | 05-Jun-1937 2:30 PM |
Sadly I was also at game number 9 in that list. I'm sure many of you recall the tragic event which had a big influence on the result.
So there you have it: fourth quarter turnarounds. Hope it brings back a few match memories; maybe people would like to share if they remember any of those top 10 games.
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