2015 academy discussion thread (with some FS thrown in for good measure)

[Nico]

I think if we had true unfettered access to the academy and father-son that the good crops would outweight the bad.

On a practical level I think we should always have a third and fourth rounder fron the academy and most years a second round pick too. I accept there will be some years where we go to the general pot for our first rounder, especially if he is top 10

If they are not taken in the draft we can rookie then as we did with Foote. No point drafting from the Academy if they are not up to it.

[CureTheSane]

I believe the Swans have recruited a few superstars who have served the club well.
Rookies only would be boring.
Plugger, Hall, Tippett, Franklin, etc, etc

[Mug Punter]

If they are not taken in the draft we can rookie then as we did with Foote. No point drafting from the Academy if they are not up to it.

Couldn't agree more.

At the same time, all things being equal why wouldn't you recruit a local lad that has been in the Swans system for 8 years.

This is a debate with no answer as the ability of the Academy to produce AFL players is pretty much an unknown at the moment. I just happen to think that the talent is there in Sydney. It always has been, I know I played with and against some great young players as a junior (I was pretty average) but they didn't have the quality of coaching and opportunities that the academy system offers.

I just can't see the system not producing at least one second and third quality draft pick a year and every 3-4 we should get an early first rounder like Heeney or Mills.

I also agree with getting superstars in like Franklin etc. But to do that you need salary cap space and the way we can do that is by growing our own as they will probably stay for slight unders.

As a club we have been very innovative with our list management. We've led the way on recycling players, mining the rookie system and more recently we have led the way on free agency. I expect us to do the same with our academy

[Auntie.Gerald]

I would also argue we have recruited players that could work and play within a system and style of play

Heavy tackling and contested football is our mantra and we have found players to compliment this game plan

[Mug Punter]

I would also argue we have recruited players that could work and play within a system and style of play

Heavy tackling and contested football is our mantra and we have found players to compliment this game plan

Another massive advantage of the academy is that we up to 8 years pre drafting to instil the "Swans way" of playing footy so they come with the values of the club as part of their DNA

All sounds a bit OTT but it has a huge cultural impact in my opinion

[CureTheSane]

Another massive advantage of the academy is that we up to 8 years pre drafting to instil the "Swans way" of playing footy so they come with the values of the club as part of their DNA

All sounds a bit OTT but it has a huge cultural impact in my opinion

That is a potentially big issue.
Nick Malceski may have eroded it's worth a bit, but the kids will have their heads screwed on pretty well you'd think.

[Meg]

AFL website has a "go-to guide" today to the new father-son and academy bidding system. To quote the article: "It is a complex and sophisticated system where each pick has been assigned a points value, and it takes some working out."

The 10 big questions on the father-son and academy bidding system - AFL.com.au

[CureTheSane]

Yeah I read that earlier on.
My thought was "I wonder how well the Swans (or any other team) will be able to exploit this system?"
Then I realised that if our drafting panel are able to outsmart the new system and get a great deal, we'll just get penalised for being too smart anyway

[707]

Reading that I'm now worried about vexatious bidding. After the really impressive performances by the three standout KP players in the U18 Championships, Mills really shouldn't be any lower than pick 4.

I'm hoping that the four northern clubs will do the right thing and not bid up each others players just as a balance against the VFL clubs trying to stuff us up.

Brisbane and Gold Coast should be at the bottom and hopefully Carlton are too worried about their own quagmire to play games. Expect Roosy to make it difficult though!

I reckon there will be numerous ways to do clever things with this bidding system and the VFL has tried to think of them all. But there will still be a club/s do something unexpected that causes the VFL to change the rules some more.

I do like the way you can trade away this years picks but still pick up a top player using mostly next years picks.

Fluid picks means you need a mathematician on your table to work out the ever changing points scenario.

At the end of it all, just get Mills and Dunkley!

[Conor_Dillon]

At the end of it all, just get Mills and Dunkley!

yep!

[Mug Punter]

Reading that I'm now worried about vexatious bidding. After the really impressive performances by the three standout KP players in the U18 Championships, Mills really shouldn't be any lower than pick 4.

I'm hoping that the four northern clubs will do the right thing and not bid up each others players just as a balance against the VFL clubs trying to stuff us up.

Brisbane and Gold Coast should be at the bottom and hopefully Carlton are too worried about their own quagmire to play games. Expect Roosy to make it difficult though!

I reckon there will be numerous ways to do clever things with this bidding system and the VFL has tried to think of them all. But there will still be a club/s do something unexpected that causes the VFL to change the rules some more.

I do like the way you can trade away this years picks but still pick up a top player using mostly next years picks.

Fluid picks means you need a mathematician on your table to work out the ever changing points scenario.

At the end of it all, just get Mills and Dunkley!

I don't expect vexatious bidding to be a huge issue except maybe in the first couple of years and then only on really top end talent where they are 100% sure we will bid for the player as is the case for Mills.

Clubs will need to be very careful about placing a vexatious bid for a player, I would imagine clubs down the bottom will be so pre-occupied by their own issues they will bid genuinely.

At the second and thid round pick levels, which is where I believe we will findthe true value in the academy system, the penalties will relatively small and therefore make vexatious bidding redundant. And if a club is dumb enough to make a first round bid for a player we rate at 30+ just to spite us then we should just pass on that player and let the club get a bad value draft pick as a penalty.

Mills is a rusted on pick and I would not be surprised if he does go at Number 1 and I think we will just find a way to get him, probably by trading Jetta for a first round pick. There's nothing we can do about this so we'll just pas sthe price in the knowledge that he is a good un. I would hope that there is an unwritten rule re nor picking academy kids between Northern Clubs which will counterbalance any phantom picks. I'd have no issue with Roosy bidding for him at #4 or #5 because he is probably good value at that and not a vexatious bid.

Dunkley is a less certain bid I believe - not sure we'll pay anything under about Pick 10 so clubs will need to be very careful if they try and take him at 5 or 6.

But on the whole I thinkw e just go and get the two and decide how to make teh new system work later

- - - Updated - - -

Yeah I read that earlier on.
My thought was "I wonder how well the Swans (or any other team) will be able to exploit this system?"
Then I realised that if our drafting panel are able to outsmart the new system and get a great deal, we'll just get penalised for being too smart anyway

I think we'll just continue to get good value out if it in a way that is sustainable.

We'll get picks at 30 - 40 that consistently outperform second and third rounders from other clubs and that will be our return on investment.

[dimelb]

Excellent article, and thanks for the link Meg.

As I see it we don't have to trade anyone, let alone a star like Jetta, provided we don't mind going into points debt for a draft, or even two, provided we think the pick, e.g. Dunkley, is warranted.

[Conor_Dillon]

If Carlton do finish bottom they would be silly not to bid on Mills, they know that we will certainly match that bid and it means they (and the rest of the draft) gain a small advantage on us in terms of our drafting ability in 2015 and maybe even 2016.

[Mug Punter]

If Carlton do finish bottom they would be silly not to bid on Mills, they know that we will certainly match that bid and it means they (and the rest of the draft) gain a small advantage on us in terms of our drafting ability in 2015 and maybe even 2016.

They should really only bid on Mills if they genuinely think that he is the best option for them as a club as first pick

As a club I would think they should be focussing on their own back yard and not ours. Imporoving an advantage on us should be th least of their concerns.

Regardless of of they want hiom, in this instance they may be tempted to bid because they pretty much know we will take him. It would be much more of a concern if he was just a mid first rounder - in that instance the Blues would be playing a very dangerous in getting a player really only rated say 10 at number 1 pick and giving up a superstar just to stuff us up.

We'll need to call a bluff or two along the way but I really don't see phantom bidding being a huge issue

In terms of Jetta I think that decision will be made for us by him but at some stage we will need to take some salary cap medicine - it may well be when Tippett's contract wends next year and is not renewed. Also on what the academy crop looks like in 2016 - we may well throw cuation to the wind with the knowledge that we will have very little draft currency in 2016.

[Pmcc2911]

I think people will be surprised with what comes out of the academy over the next couple of years. We are now starting to see the results of a lot of hours of coaching and training.
There may not be a Mills or a Heaney in the next batch but there are solid group of 5-6 talented kids who currently as 17y/o hold their own in the NEAFL.