Losses After Bye

[sharp9]

I know we had a terrible run of something like 10 lost games in a row after bye (heaps against Collingwood) but we really seem to have an Achilles heel there. We even lost Tippo's first game vs Port even though we were definitely a much better side and also had a good start. Can anyone access our post bye perfs for the last decade or so....remembering some years there were two byes. I'd be interested in the stats. I suspect that only a fool would put money on Sydney this Friday ;-)

[Ampersand]

We smashed Geelong after the bye last year by 110.

Perhaps this is silly of me but I don't see the benefit of trawling back a whole decade on any statistic and trying to intuit some trend or tendency. Different teams, different personnel, different form, different conditions.

[neilfws]

Can anyone access our post bye perfs for the last decade or so

I'll give it a go. This is a quick first attempt, so there may be errors - I think it looks right though.

The bye is a modern invention. I've pulled out all the games that took place 2 weeks after the previous game. Only 5 this decade, the 2 byes occurring in 2011. Of those 5 we've lost 3, won 2. None against Collingwood

In fact there are only 29 home and away games ever that took place after a 2-week break. Of all those we've lost 16, won 13.

I would conclude that a 2-week break is no predictor of result.

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[goswannies]

I know we had a terrible run of something like 10 lost games in a row after bye (heaps against Collingwood) but we really seem to have an Achilles heel there. We even lost Tippo's first game vs Port even though we were definitely a much better side and also had a good start. Can anyone access our post bye perfs for the last decade or so....remembering some years there were two byes. I'd be interested in the stats. I suspect that only a fool would put money on Sydney this Friday ;-)

I was at the Port game of Tippett's return in 2013. Given much of our form over the past couple of years, I reckon it had less to do with the bye an more to do with the fact the players needed scuba gear on the ground that day. I think we handle the wet less well than the bye.

[dejavoodoo44]

Also, if you expand the definition of a bye to having a week off, we did smash North in last year's Preliminary Final by 71 points.

[mcs]

I was at the Port game of Tippett's return in 2013. Given much of our form over the past couple of years, I reckon it had less to do with the bye an more to do with the fact the players needed scuba gear on the ground that day. I think we handle the wet less well than the bye.

I was at that game too (my only visit to that windblown @@@@hole of a football field somewhere in the vicinity of East Perth) - it was wet, windy and the ground was like a lake. If I remember rightly we started ok, then just went to pants as the game went on - all on the basis of a Port gameplan of kicking the crap out of the ball every time it hit the ground, and chasing with a mob after it. Worked perfectly for them that day.

We made up for the crappy game on the Saturday however by going round the McLaren vale wineries on the Sunday however - well and truly drowned our sorrows

[Meg]

Losses After Bye

I was at that game too (my only visit to that windblown @@@@hole of a football field somewhere in the vicinity of East Perth) - it was wet, windy and the ground was like a lake. If I remember rightly we started ok, then just went to pants as the game went on - all on the basis of a Port gameplan of kicking the crap out of the ball every time it hit the ground, and chasing with a mob after it. Worked perfectly for them that day.

We made up for the crappy game on the Saturday however by going round the McLaren vale wineries on the Sunday however - well and truly drowned our sorrows

I too was at that game. You are right about the 'wet, windy and like a lake description' - and also bitterly cold. But there were two other key factors that lost that match for us, neither of them the bye.
Firstly, Hinkley had planned for our 'slingshot' which we had consistently used up to that match. He parked a defender in the backline who never ever followed his forward up the ground. So every time we slung the ball over the top, he just slung it back catching us in flight going in the wrong direction. This match was the demise of the 'slingshot' for the Swans.

And secondly Goodes, who had probably been our best player for the first three quarters, went off for the last quarter with the knee injury that put him out for the next 12(?) weeks (and probably came close to ending his career).
It was a miserable day. But somewhat alleviated by the pure, non-aggressive and non-triumph joy of the Port supporters around me who had stayed true to their club through some pretty dismal performances up till then.

[sharp9]

My memory must be terrible - we played several stand alone games against Collingwood, though

[neilfws]

My memory must be terrible - we played several stand alone games against Collingwood, though

The human mind is easily fooled I'm often convinced of my facts, only to look at the data and realise they were totally wrong. Yes, there was a horror run versus the Pies, did not beat them at ANZ for 7 years (2006 - 2012).

Speaking of perceptions versus reality, I spent a fun evening this week joining SCG game stats with rainfall data from Centennial Park and I'd have to say there's not much evidence that we go worse in the wet. Expect charts in the near-future...

[dejavoodoo44]

Yes, neilfwas, I agree that statistics can often contradict our immediate perceptions of reality: I mean, during a game I often think that we're being persecuted by the umpires, only to find out later that the free kick count was around about even. But I do genuinely believe that our dry weather form is much better that our wet form. So I'm now trying to think of a few things that might confound your statistical analysis. The first one might be that our wet weather form might be okay at home, but crap away from home?

[Meg]

Speaking of perceptions versus reality, I spent a fun evening this week joining SCG game stats with rainfall data from Centennial Park and I'd have to say there's not much evidence that we go worse in the wet. Expect charts in the near-future...

Hope you're right because showers are forecast for the next two days (though supposedly clearing Friday afternoon).

[neilfws]

So I'm now trying to think of a few things that might confound your statistical analysis. The first one might be that our wet weather form might be okay at home, but crap away from home?

Could be true! You'd have to take into account the home advantage regardless of rain, which most stats people reckon amounts to about 2 goals. We would also have to locate the nearest weather station to every ground and gather all the rainfall data from those sites.

It's quite hard to do this analysis in any meaningful way. For one thing, all we get from rainfall data is whether any was recorded in the 24 hours to 9 am each day. We can't say for sure whether it was raining at game time (the previous day). For another, most games (about 71% at the SCG) seem to be dry. The longest run of consecutive wet games at the SCG is 5, in 1983 (we won 4 of them). And the longest run of wet games lost is only 2.

Maybe a better analysis would be to look at all teams on wet days and see who scores higher, on average...anyway, back to the day job for now.

[dejavoodoo44]

Hmmm, that last sentence seems like a truly Herculean task. Perhaps we could just do the sort of statistical analysis favoured by politicians and media hacks: that is, just grabbing a few inconsistent factoids and using them to support whatever theory that we have at the time?

[neilfws]

showers are forecast for the next two days (though supposedly clearing Friday afternoon).

I should save this for the game day thread I guess, but too pleased to wait: it's a lovely blue-sky Friday here in Sydney just now, no rain on the radar out to 256 km and forecast for rest of the day is "mostly sunny".

[erica]

I should save this for the game day thread I guess, but too pleased to wait: it's a lovely blue-sky Friday here in Sydney just now, no rain on the radar out to 256 km and forecast for rest of the day is "mostly sunny".

And no email from the Swans to say the ressies game has moved.