Round 16: Sydney v Hawthorn

[troyjones2525]

Dejavoodoo44. Good read with great analysis.

+1

[jono2707]

No team will beat Hawks this year in a GF and that is demoralising.

Ok cancel the rest of this season, everyone can go home, and we'll just hand the Cup to the Hawks now....

[ASSASSIN]

Swannies lost the match in the first 2 minutes of the game. When the first couple kicks in the 50 couldn't even make it to the sticks or out on the full (REID) then you knew this was going be one very long game. yes the Hawks played well, but the swans also played just as bad. They (swans) are still a good team over all, and will be better when they get some players back. The team will go deep into the finals, it is just the nature of the club. don't give up just yet guys

[mcs]

This pretty much sums it up. I'm generally optimistic about our chances, but I know i haven't sounded like it this season. There was something rotten from the start. We always want to have the hope that the next week will be different, but it never seemed to materialize.

The drubbing last night is positively cathartic in a bizarre way. It's a confirmation of where we really are at this time. The delusions of us as a premiership contender are gone, and we can begin to rebuild the team for another crack at the title, hopefully as early as 2017.

There's only one club can be premiers, so there's no shame in not being the one. I very much enjoyed 2011 because you could see we were building toward something, which came to fruition the following year.

We should be a good enough side to stay in the top eight during this period, thanks to a quality midfield. We have so many holes to fill at both ends of the ground that it's hard to see, with any confidence, how it will all come together. We will be burdened with Tippett's salary through next year, which will restrict what we can do during this trade period more than any trade ban. Even if Tippett would agree to leave, who would be willing to take on his salary. By 2017 he will be 30 yo with a mediocre career and may even end up being delisted. We will probably have to wait until the end of next year to know more about where we stand.

I've readjusted my expectations. There won't be any more disappointing performances for me this year. I hope the Swans' brain-trust also understand where we are at. I've felt since the Brisbane game that Longmire understood we were cooked. His anger has abated. He's seen the light.

The contrast that hits home to me is the feelings after last night's game compared to the corresponding fixture in 2012. After that game in 2012, I said to my mate that comes along to all the games I go to in Sydney 'we can beat them and win the flag' on the way out, after the Hawks had beat us by a couple of kicks due to a late onslaught. After last night (I didn't go to the game - but we watched it here), I said to him - we are no chance of beating them or winning the flag.

We just have not strung together a bunch of good performances this year - indeed I think it shows just how good we are as a 'club' that we are still somehow at 11-4, despite rarely playing near our best. It may all click before finals and we go on our merry way, but I've seen nothing to suggest that is going to happen this year sadly.

[wolftone57]

Well, I still think that the season is still alive, and I wouldn't expect the management to treat it as otherwise. But I think that we are now at long odds for a premiership this year, and it would need a fair amount of improbable things to occur to have us genuine contenders again. Firstly, we will need to have a remarkably clear run with injuries, while Hawthorn, and to a lesser extent the other contenders, all have horror runs.
Also, last night's game needs to be treated as a strong learning experience, which is probably the easy part, while the harder part is to make sure that a thrashing of that proportion doesn't happen again. In regards to that, in my opinion it would be a mistake to claim that the team lacked effort or didn't show up. The fact that we won the contested possession, clearance and tackle counts, shows that there was effort there. What should be a more useful conclusion to draw, is that Hawthorn has learnt how to deal with our preferred game style, but we haven't worked out how to nullify theirs when it's full flight. And probably the central part of this, is that it seems that our players have been drilled to use multiple short handballs to try and work our way out of pressure. While this can be pretty to watch when it comes off, it can often break down under pressure, especially in slippery conditions. In contrast, Hawthorn seem to be always looking to relieve pressure with quick kicks.
I certainly thought that this was major difference between the two sides last night. That is, once we had possession, Hawthorn were often easily able to deal with our backwards and sideways handballs. They did this mainly through their speedier players, like Rioli, coming from behind into an already congested area, to apply pressure to both the ball carrier and the intended receivers. This meant that we often saw handball chains become increasingly chaotic as they progressed, resulting in turnovers. Or when we did clear the ball, the often chaotic lateral and backwards movement meant that the Hawthorn defenders had time to rapidly organise themselves and man up on our downfield options. In contrast, Hawthorn's preferred option of quickly kicking, meant that they got the ball away from the congested areas much more efficiently. It also meant that the Hawthorn players peeling away from the congestion were more able to affect the next contest, since they probably had the advantage of often knowing where their team mates were kicking to. Time and time again last night, we saw when one of our defenders was able to spoil, Hawthorn players were able to keep the movement going by arriving first to clean up the spillage. And with other options rapidly streaming forward, free targets were often able to be hit. So in my opinion, that was the main reason why a game that was even in many respects, ended up as a massive blowout.
I also suspect that possibly the main reason for the shellshocked look on the face on John Longmire, whenever he was shown on screen, may have been the realisation that the game plan that they have probably spent much of the season and pre-season working on, may now be largely redundant. It will be interesting to see if there will be any significant change in the way that we play. But if we are going to do it, we should start to do it now.

One of our other problems is we have so many players back protecting the defence that we are always vastly outnumbered when the ball comes out of defence quickly. Mainly the opposition just set up a line of defence across the centre and pick up the loose ball and drive it back often getting a score. Port, in the last game, Bullies, Richmond, Freo, even lions all did it. Think on this, we were lucky to come off with a win against the bottom side last week. Our defenders need so much help because they are incapable of defending on their own. The days of having elite defenders at the Swans are gone with Mattner and Co. We need to somehow get some defenders that can hold their own. Rampe can if not on a player 10-20cm taller. Jones seems able to make a contest one on one and win most times. Smithy's form worries me as he is one that used to be able to always hold his own. Teddy & Reg have always been a bit iffy against the talls and always have needed help. shaw is the worst one on one. He is constantly beaten and almost gives up more score than the whole backline combined.

Game plans are a problem and I don' care if Horse is the bloody Messiah his game plan is crap against good sides and everyone will eventually just stack players back and pick us off. Relying on a few players to kick goals is fraught with danger. The problem is he doesn't seem to have any other plan or can't seem to shift. the forward coach should have noticed the Hawks playmakers in the backs alone at the back of the square last night yet nothing was done. Giving Burgoyne, Suckling, Birchell & even Litherland 20 metres space is asking to be destroyed.

[wolftone57]

Ok cancel the rest of this season, everyone can go home, and we'll just hand the Cup to the Hawks now....

The Hawks will win their third. no doubt about that. If any side can beat them it isn't us. Richmond would be my bet but a GF is different to H&A. Richmond don't have a very good finals record either with this side.

[troyjones2525]

There's a good frank assessment of our performance last night and issues going forward by Rohan Connelly on Sen.com.au (sorry not that tech savy to add the link!

[annew]

We will not cannot trade Tippett this year because we still have trading restrictions people please remember this.

[troyjones2525]

Another real concern for me, especially after watching some of the other sides, even ones near the bottom is our complete lack of any key position talent coming through! We really need some young height that can take a grab either defensively or on our way out of defence. Someone we can go to, but clearly Aliir and young Richards aren't showing enough as they haven't really been given a go this year. We used our first pick on young Rose who obviously shows talent but is a flanker which we can use a number of our top mids to rest in that position in the senior side. Our recruiting department has made some head scratching decisions for mine in recent seasons.

[Industrial Fan]

Really felt we missed Mal in that type of game. We lacked any sense of adventure coming out of defence and often switched slowly and got pushed backwards.

The Hawks defended well but we really weren't incisive at all. In the brief patches Parker was involved he was good and things opened up when he had the ball.

Wolf I think that Horse was playing the man on the wing to clear out forward line. We had congestion there, they'd clear it and swarm en masse into our open D50.

[Ludwig]

We will not cannot trade Tippett this year because we still have trading restrictions people please remember this.

There's no restriction on trading out players, but I can't imagine any club wanting to pay his salary and we certainly are not in a position to contribute given our diminishing salary cap. Tippett hasn't turned out well given the salary, but I think it has to be judged on the circumstances at the time and on that basis it seemed a good acquisition. It was only money as we got him without giving up a player. It only became a problem when we got Buddy the next year and we lost the COLA.

Another real concern for me, especially after watching some of the other sides, even ones near the bottom is our complete lack of any key position talent coming through! We really need some young height that can take a grab either defensively or on our way out of defence. Someone we can go to, but clearly Aliir and young Richards aren't showing enough as they haven't really been given a go this year. We used our first pick on young Rose who obviously shows talent but is a flanker which we can use a number of our top mids to rest in that position in the senior side. Our recruiting department has made some head scratching decisions for mine in recent seasons.

I was surprised that we picked Aliir over Ben Brown who went 3 picks later, and can also play as a key defender. I said so at the time as Aliir was constantly beaten 1 on 1 in the under 18 championships. I thought we might go for McLaren instead of Rose last year, but we got him anyway in the rookie draft. Oscar McDonald was still available, but everyone seemed to be passing on him. I'm somewhat optimistic about Melican, although it sounds like he's got OP and will take a few years development as well. But in fairness to all, it does take these key defenders some time to develop. Even some of the best now, like Rance and Hooker, we soundly beaten in their early years.

I think we should plan on settling Reid in as a key back, as we need some additional pace and height back there. I would also fast track Abe Davis in a key forward role as he look the most likely heir apparent to Goodes as the third tall.

Really felt we missed Mal in that type of game. We lacked any sense of adventure coming out of defence and often switched slowly and got pushed backwards.

Of course you're right about Mal, but Mal had that freedom because the rest of the defence was able to handle the 1 on 1s, which we are not capable of now. Rampe could grow into that role, but not until the rest of the backline improves.

[Industrial Fan]

Smith in particular has been well down on his high standards. That kick for goal against Richmond really consolidated the rot but more than that his defending has not been great. General kicking from him has been pretty poor too.

Wouldn't be surprised if he was carrying some type of groin injury.

[liz]

Player by player, we're down almost right across the board compared to last year and to 2012.

We've added Buddy - clearly an improvement on 2012 and maybe on a par with last year. He's been a little less effective but that's likely to be a symptom of the team as a whole not going so well.
Hanners has been better than last year. He's not been out injured, for a start. And while he was very good in 2012, he's been more consistent this year.
Kennedy's best has been as good as last year and maybe as good as 2012 but he's not produced it as often. His goal kicking, in particular, is well down on 2012.
Jack's down a bit on 2012, probably on a par with last year. Same with Macca.
Reg is probably on a par with both years (and for all the criticism he gets from some on here, I rate him as a good solid contributor).
Jetts has improved. He's certainly a more rounded player. But he's been a bit erratic this year. I think he's capable of more consistent contributions.
Smith seems a little down.
Ted is slowing down.
Goodes is probably on a par with last year but down on 2012.
Shaw is gradually declining.
Johnson has been injured since 2012.
Mal, Marty and Mummy have gone.
Pyke is down on both last year and 2012, quite possibly due to injury.
McGlynn's been missing most of this year. He missed a fair bit of last year too, but when he was available he was a very good contributor (GF aside).
Parker's developed since 2012 but hasn't been able to reproduce last year on a consistent basis. He's still been reasonable all the time and has produced a few great games. I'm confident this is just part of his learning curve. He's copping more attention from the opposition this year and he's still very young for an absolute top liner.
Tippo's relative worth is hard to evaluate. It's been a godsend that he's at least been on the park more often than last year, and his ruck contributions have been handy. But in front of goal he's loomed as a dangerous target in only odd patches.

We don't really have any of our younger brigade sticking their hands up and elevating themselves into the top dozen players in the team. Rohan's done it in patches, but not consistently within a game, and of course now he's injured.
Lloyd is a solid addition - obviously not there in 2012 and maybe slightly down on his 2013, but only ever so slightly.
Harry's failed to develop from a solid year last year. He's still making some OK contributions but is playing like one of the last few players picked, not someone who sees himself as a core part of the team.
Reid is of an age now where he needs to stand up and announce himself to be a core member of the side. He's tantalised us for a quarter here, a quarter there, but then he plateaus (or disappears).
Mitchell is still establishing himself, and on the whole he's been reasonable. But I doubt he's giving us as much as Bird (his replacee) did in either 2012 or last year.
Heeney and Jones are still complete newbies finding their way. Heeney, in particular, did show enough to excite and hopefully he can pick up where he left off when he returns from injury (next week, I hope). Neither of these two can be expected to carry the team right now, but both look to have the ability to become key team members from 2016 or so onwards.
And then we have the rotation of Towers, Jack, Robinson in and out of the side as the last man picked. None looks ready to do too much at senior level yet. Whether they ever will, we will have to wait and see.

Overall, I think our best 10 or so are operating not far off where they did in 2014, but what drop off there is has been is concentrated in defence. Certainly compared to 2012 our bottom half a dozen or so players aren't contributing nearly as much, and probably too much is being left to too few.

[Ludwig]

Overall, I think our best 10 or so are operating not far off where they did in 2014, but what drop off there is has been is concentrated in defence. Certainly compared to 2012 our bottom half a dozen or so players aren't contributing nearly as much, and probably too much is being left to too few.

I agree with your analysis, Liz, especially the part about the concentration of our problems being in our defence. We've been a bit unfortunate that 3 of our injuries have been to what would normally be our small forwards, with the entire contingent of Rohan, McGlynn and Heeney all out at the moment. We should be much better once they return.

Our ruck situation is just something we will have to work out in due course. With all the injuries now it's pretty difficult to know where we stand. It would be good if we could get Naismith up and running for a few games at the end of the H&A season.

Except for Grundy, as noted, there has been a general falloff across the board in the defence. We used to be so reliant on Ted when he was at the top of his game, now that he's fallen off it really shows just how valuable he was. The combination of Ted, Reg and Laidler is just too slow and fumbley to get by these days. We need to have either Reid or XR as one of our key backs just for their pace alone. In XR's case, we may just have to hope for the best that he can grow into the role. It may take a miraculous comeback from AJ to make things right. A well coordinated defence takes time to develop and we might as well bite the bullet and start now. Things are not going to get any better with our current crew.

A few years back Shaw was such a valuable player running the ball out defence over and over again. Mal was pretty good as well. Now we need to put Jetta back to do that. We really need a player that's a regular part of our defence that can run and carry the ball out of trouble so we don't have to rely on blind kicks in desperation that just come for goals.

Nic Newman's been playing well. I wouldn't mind fast tracking him a bit. We could send Tom Derickx in for shoulder surgery (whether he needs it or not) and put him on the LTIL and upgrade Nic. If Marsh is a chance we might as well give him a go in the seniors as well. Both have good pace and can kick the ball long. One thing for sure is that we are really struggling getting the ball out of defence these days, just kicking to a contest along the boundary is sort of safe but not winning football.

[crackedactor]

Worse pick up

We will not cannot trade Tippett this year because we still have trading restrictions people please remember this.

I always thought the Dermot Breton coming to Sydney Swans was the worse buying/trading decision the club every made, now watching Tippett play, it appears I may have been wrong. Its a pity we cannot trade him next year and maybe we can get the trade restrictions removed??? Come on the AFL got to show some pity after we were completely smashed by 10 and 15 goals by Hawthorn out of the last 3 meetings. I thought getting Carlisle from Essendon would be handy for us. I like Jones and Nankervis's game on Sat Night but father time has caught up with our backline. What replacements can we find down back???