It must be time for finals-related charts

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  • neilfws
    Senior Player
    • Aug 2009
    • 1826

    It must be time for finals-related charts

    In celebration of finals, I give you the annual reminder that since the introduction of the current "final 8" system in 2000, no-one has won from outside the top 3.

    gfladder.png

    There is a team that has won from 3rd twice and been runner-up from 4th...we all know who they are.

    Seems to be some speculation in the media that this year has the best chance for some time of a surprise, even from outside the top 4. No-one is rating number 4 of course.

    As ever, happy to supply charts that answer your finals-related questions!
  • RogueSwan
    McVeigh for Brownlow
    • Apr 2003
    • 4602

    #2
    How have first week losers from the Top 4 gone? Made the PF? Made the GF? Won the whole thing?
    "Fortunately, this is the internet, so knowing nothing is no obstacle to having an opinion!." Beerman 18-07-2017

    Comment

    • barry
      Veterans List
      • Jan 2003
      • 8499

      #3
      Originally posted by neilfws
      In celebration of finals, I give you the annual reminder that since the introduction of the current "final 8" system in 2000, no-one has won from outside the top 3.

      [ATTACH=CONFIG]1375[/ATTACH]

      There is a team that has won from 3rd twice and been runner-up from 4th...we all know who they are.

      Seems to be some speculation in the media that this year has the best chance for some time of a surprise, even from outside the top 4. No-one is rating number 4 of course.

      As ever, happy to supply charts that answer your finals-related questions!
      All the talk of a 5 to 8th team winning the flag is Victorian media flogs trying to talk up the finals. If you ask me the top 3 (ok let's say top 4) are further ahead of the rest than ever.

      Comment

      • jetts32
        On the Rookie List
        • Oct 2012
        • 200

        #4
        The Swans like to make things harder for themselves just to make history. Don't worry about 4th, if we can win it, we will.

        For some reason, even without Jack and Parker I'm still confident. I have no idea why, but I am. The forward line and midfield has just seemed to click lately. I know we haven't had the best competition but even earlier in the year against lesser opponents we weren't kicking 20 goals a game. It's like the midfield aren't conscious over 1 forward anymore which makes us really dangerous.

        Tippett, Reid, Heeney, Mitchell, Hanners, Kennedy and a few others are peaking at the right time of the year.

        Add Buddy, Mcglynn and Rohan to come in and find some form and we're getting serious.

        Comment

        • Auntie.Gerald
          Veterans List
          • Oct 2009
          • 6478

          #5
          if the hawks had no Sam Mitchell and Luke Hodge or Freeo had no Fyfe or Hill could they win GF from 4th ? or even top 3 ?

          We have no Parker (players player 2014) and no Jack our co captain both as integral to our finals fight as the above
          "be tough, only when it gets tough"

          Comment

          • neilfws
            Senior Player
            • Aug 2009
            • 1826

            #6
            Originally posted by RogueSwan
            How have first week losers from the Top 4 gone? Made the PF? Made the GF? Won the whole thing?
            Great suggestion. Bit of work involved there. I'll get back to you...

            - - - Updated - - -

            Originally posted by jetts32
            For some reason, even without Jack and Parker I'm still confident. I have no idea why, but I am.
            I feel exactly the same way. Maybe we feel more "real" this year, after the humiliation of falling for our own hype last time around. Back to being quiet achievers. And I agree, some key players peaking at the right time.

            Comment

            • neilfws
              Senior Player
              • Aug 2009
              • 1826

              #7
              Originally posted by RogueSwan
              How have first week losers from the Top 4 gone? Made the PF? Made the GF? Won the whole thing?
              Right - here's an attempt to visualise how the top 8 go, from week to week. Might be better summarised as some numbers, requires a bit of staring. But it sort of shows what you asked for.

              finals.png

              Comment

              • aguy
                Senior Player
                • Mar 2014
                • 1324

                #8
                Originally posted by neilfws
                Right - here's an attempt to visualise how the top 8 go, from week to week. Might be better summarised as some numbers, requires a bit of staring. But it sort of shows what you asked for.

                [ATTACH=CONFIG]1376[/ATTACH]
                You're right takes a bit of staring but if you look at the grand finals it's almost almost from the top half of the top 4 as you would expect.

                I have a feeling this year there are realistically 5 teams that can win. The telling statistic for me is the defensive record of the top 5.

                The points against for the top 5 range from hawthorn at 1548 to Sydney at 1578. That's a 30 point range. Quite remarkable. The teams 6 to 8 the range is 1821 to 1937. There is around a 250 point difference in the defences of the top 5 and the other teams. That suggests to me that Bulldogs Adelaide and north don't have the defence to win a premiership.

                Comment

                • neilfws
                  Senior Player
                  • Aug 2009
                  • 1826

                  #9
                  Originally posted by aguy
                  You're right takes a bit of staring but if you look at the grand finals it's almost almost from the top half of the top 4 as you would expect.

                  The points against for the top 5 range from hawthorn at 1548 to Sydney at 1578. That's a 30 point range. Quite remarkable. The teams 6 to 8 the range is 1821 to 1937. There is around a 250 point difference in the defences of the top 5 and the other teams. That suggests to me that Bulldogs Adelaide and north don't have the defence to win a premiership.
                  Very interesting numbers, thanks.

                  And to answer the original question after a good stare: I think a GF win after losing the first week only happened 3 times in this era; Brisbane (2003), Sydney (2005) and West Coast (2006).

                  The commonest pattern when top 4 finishers lose in week 1 is LWL (23 times). Out in straight sets (LL) happened 4 times. Interestingly, I don't think a first week loser has ever been GF runner-up (LWWL).
                  Last edited by neilfws; 10 September 2015, 10:06 AM.

                  Comment

                  • neilfws
                    Senior Player
                    • Aug 2009
                    • 1826

                    #10
                    Originally posted by neilfws
                    here's an attempt to visualise how the top 8 go, from week to week
                    I've been tweaking this one. I reckon it works better in this version, with years along the bottom and each row = finals week 1-4 (or 1-5 in the case of 2010).\

                    finals.png

                    Comment

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