the points system

[Benevolent Ert]

In answer to the second part, I believe this is the case.

Say Mills is bid at 3, so from memory we need to match that with 33, 36, 37 and part of 44.
Pick 33 then has enough points value to become Pick 3
36 and 37 now have 0 points value, so become picks at the end of the draft (say 90 and 91 for arguments sake)
Pick 44 has partial points value of Pick 44 so becomes about pick 62.

Picks from 38 onwards have now moved up 2 places.

[Ludwig]

In answer to the second part, I believe this is the case.

Say Mills is bid at 3, so from memory we need to match that with 33, 36, 37 and part of 44.
Pick 33 then has enough points value to become Pick 3
36 and 37 now have 0 points value, so become picks at the end of the draft (say 90 and 91 for arguments sake)
Pick 44 has partial points value of Pick 44 so becomes about pick 62.

Picks from 38 onwards have now moved up 2 places.

That was my understanding as well, but I can't find any documentation on it. It's very significant, since the elevation of these lower picks would add to the points value available to use on Dunkley when his name is called.

[YvonneH]

When is the latest Josh Dunkley had to nominate us (or not) as F/S?

[i'm-uninformed2]

Here we go. The turds are already at it

http://m.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/hawthorn-list-chief-graham-wright-calls-for-review-of-points-trading-system/story-fnp04d70-1227580340273

[Levii3]

Is it just we or is the time on here driving anyone else crazy.

- - - Updated - - -

When is the latest Josh Dunkley had to nominate us (or not) as F/S?

The last day for Father Son nomination is October 30

[Mug Punter]

Here we go. The turds are already at it

http://m.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/...-1227580340273

You could just predict this couldn't you, FFS Gillon it is time for you to take a stand re this

[707]

You could just predict this couldn't you, FFS Gillon it is time for you to take a stand re this

Can someone give a link to this article in the Hun that we can read (or copy it to here)

I assume it's another Eddie "sky is falling" type whinge. Agree, FFS VFL, grow some nuts and show who is running this game but fear they will collapse in front of the assault from Hawthorn and Collingwood.

Those clubs obviously didn't get sufficient rise up the draft order to be satisfied. Hawks probably pissed off at us facilitating the Carlisle deal.

[Mug Punter]

Can someone give a link to this article in the Hun that we can read (or copy it to here)

I assume it's another Eddie "sky is falling" type whinge. Agree, FFS VFL, grow some nuts and show who is running this game but fear they will collapse in front of the assault from Hawthorn and Collingwood.

Those clubs obviously didn't get sufficient rise up the draft order to be satisfied. Hawks probably pissed off at us facilitating the Carlisle deal.

It's silly really because nobody made the Victorian clubs trade those picks to us in exchange for an earlier pick but then when we get what they perceive as the closest thing to an advantage then the sky falls in....

[i'm-uninformed2]

heres the rant from eddies bitch and yes suspect they're annoyed we helped on the Carlisle trade


ONE of footy?s most respected list bosses has questioned the merit of the AFL?s new points trading system and called for a full review before next year?s exchange period.

Hawthorn list chief Graham Wright said the new system was potentially manipulated in an unintended way as northern-states clubs gave up prized early draft picks for back-end selections carrying more points.

?We hope it would be reviewed once we get through this draft period,? Wright said.

Hawthorn will present its own assessment to the AFL, amid calls to cap the number of back-end selections northern clubs could attract in next year?s trade period.

One idea is that northern clubs could be limited to a set number of lower-order picks, such as three picks a round from the third-round on.

The northern clubs will use their many back-end selections to attract their top-end academy talents, jumping back into the early part of the order on draft night.


Another leading talent guru questioned whether this year?s trade-draft period was as pure as previous years.

?It turned the traditional way of doing things on its head, because some clubs wanted to constantly swap picks for a bunch of lower picks, down the order,? the official said.

One club likened the method to ?buying a can of soft drink with a bag of five cent pieces?.

Greater Western Sydney has selections 53, 55, 58, 63, 64, 65 and 70, while Brisbane shuffled down to secure 38, 39, 40, 41, and 42.

Hawthorn swooped late, sending picks 55 and 58 to GWS in exchange for No.48.

The Demons were one of the big winners, converting a package of four draft picks for Nos.3, 7 and GWS defender Tom Bugg.


Football boss Josh Mahoney told the Herald Sun the Dees identified the loophole about a month ago and planned to exploit it to rise up the draft order.

?That was one of the things we spoke about and we?re really happy the plan has come through,? Mahoney said.


?The key thing is you?ve got to learn how the system works and how the points work and I think as the trade period has gone on the influence of points is certainly coming through.?

Collingwood list chief Derek Hine said the system could take a few years to properly assess.

?What it does allow is (non-academy) clubs to work their way back into the early part of the draft,? Hine said.

?Now if you have multiple picks in the middle-round and bunch them up it is attractive for the academy clubs.?

Sydney football boss Tom Harley said the new system had already worked in its favour.

?It?s put a definitive value on picks and clubs have been able to orchestrate trades to benefit what they want to do,? Harley said.

Seven trades involving 11 clubs did not involve a player ? a record number.

The new model gave increased power to clubs such as Greater Western Sydney who could choose which rivals it could help slingshot up the draft order, in return for the Giants? own points boost.

Industry figures have queried whether clubs which have completed the ?shuffle down? deals with the northern-states clubs will now choose to not bid on their academy stars.

The AFL has strongly backed the new model, believing the points attached to each draft pick will force the northern-states clubs to pay a fairer price for their academy selections.

[WauchopeAnalyst]

Melbourne traded very well. The Hawks and Magpies loved the weaker teams for 50 years and now hates them getting better.

[Meg]

The first draft bidding system suggested a 25% discount for Academy players and a 15% discount for F/S players. The non-Academy clubs moaned about that saying the discounts should be the same. So the final system had a compromise of 20% for both in the first round.

But the twist (which I wondered if the Swans were clever enough to engineer) was that it was also decided that the discount would then be fixed at 197 points (the discount for pick 18) for second round and later picks. The effective discount in percentage terms therefore increases as the pick decreases - so by pick 56 the discount is 100%.

This is what the Academy clubs have exploited by trading higher picks for multiple lower picks. And what the other clubs have now complaining about. Mind you, if Hawthorn had a F/S player they wanted this year I bet they wouldn't be complaining!

[Ludwig]

Trade and draft strategy has moved to a more open market oriented system which has more in common with markets comprising ostensibly antagonistic participants which include risk mitigation and liquidity providers. These types of systems tend to settle in towards a Nash equilibrium, made famous by that mathematician played by Russell Crowe in the film A Beautiful Mind. What some may be worried about is the academy clubs could become the deal makers and deal facilitators once things settle in and everyone knows how the system works. In fact, they were the deal makers in many cases this year. It could become a struggle between those who want to hurt the academy clubs by bidding high on their academy players and those who won't bid for fear of reprisals from the deal makers. It could end up where fear of retribution from the deal makers will limit bidding on academy players thus having the opposite effect of what was intended by the ones who forced it upon us.

Non-cooperative strategies can pay off in short term situations, like in the Prisoner's Dilemma, but over longer term models, with memory, cooperative strategies usually win the day. The simple 'tit for tat' system often is the best strategy. So it could end up that clubs will want to cooperate with the academy clubs and not place vexatious bids for their players.

Before I started to analyse what happened and was wearing my Swans fan hat, I posted that if Melbourne or Essendon bid on Mills we should never trade with them again. This is a good example of what might happen if ludwig were the Swans list manager. Eddie McGuire, who already believes that ludwig duped him into trading for Jesse White, may be worried that he's done it again with the new bidding system. I wouldn't be surprised to see Eddie champion a COLA reinstatement counter strategy next year.

[R-1]

Wrote these two bits of possibly relevant analysis on pick swaps. Note that we use our own method of valuing the actual worth of picks in the draft (and of players) based on future expected output, so the "points" we discuss are derived from that system. (The main difference is we think based on history that the late 2nd round is nearly as valuable as the first half of it)

Pick swap ? Hawthorn 53 and 58 for GWS 48 #AFLtrades | Hurling People Now

Swapmageddon ? Four swaps involving eight clubs and zero players #AFLtrades | Hurling People Now

[Ludwig]

I found this thread on big footy phantom drafts from 'eth-dog'. I don't know who he is, but seems to know how the system works and has a number of informative replies to poster comments: eth-dog's 2015 AFL Phantom Draft | BigFooty AFL Forum

He has the gaps made by multiple matching picks filled from below as several on here, including myself, had believed. If true, then we should gain additional points by moving up the ladder as these gaps are filled during the live draft and would likely not have go into deficit, even if Mills is bid at pick 3.

But there might be as sting in the tail for Melbourne next year if they do.

[Levii3]

Just wondering do Gold Coast have an academy? haven't heard much about any of their kids.. Or is it just a basket case like their club