Changes for round 1 - Syd vs Port

[Ludwig]

graemed, your training reports have been very informative and thanks for keeping us abreast of the latest news.

I'm feeling much the same about your projections for round 1, although I feel Newman will find a spot if he performs well in the practice game. It's a bit too early to say who will get the final few spots. We will have to see how players carrying injuries return to fitness and who stands out in the practice matches. The list of possibilities is quite long at this point.

I also feel that Rose is a good chance this year, but the competition will be fierce for those small forward roles, especially when Papley returns. I've been wondering how Cunningham and BJ are looking so far this year. They will both be under the gun with guys like Florent, Hayward and Fisher coming to the club.

[barry]

How good will it be to have Reid back !

I think Talia will be a regular in the senior side in 2017. Probably pushing out Laidler. If talia can hold down CHB, it will free up AA to go third defender and he'll be star.

[Aaron]

Graemed, Lloyd is missing from your selection. I think he is definitely required

[crackedactor]

Graemed, Lloyd is missing from your selection. I think he is definitely required

Yes Lloyd is a definite in. I would be surprised if Talia comes into the round one side. I believe he has to show the club something before he is considered. I think Newman is a big chance for round one. Allir Allir's fitness may be a problem. If so then I think they would go for Laidler though O'Riordon is half a chance also.

[707]

Article up on the Swans website about Talia. Done all the training, has given commitments and just needs to keep them according to Horse.

Maybe his erratic off field lifestyle has affected his footy in the past and if he is now going straight and is dedicated he may have a lot of upside. We did pick him up for free so be great if he can come good, has all the physical attributes to succeed.

Newman must be a big chance to debut, was so impressive and composed at NEAFL level last year, given the holes in our best 22 he is highly likely for R1 you would think. O'Riordan is an exciting prospect, should debut this year.

[bloodspirit]

Great thread aguy! I am enjoying reading comments. That said, I have to say, I also think it is kinda pointless. I don't think even the coaches know the answer to this question. It will depend so much on JLT matches, training, injuries etc.

Your outs are non-controversial with the possible additions due to injury.

Figuring out who will come in is largely guesswork at this stage. I think Reid will surely come in, if fit.

Three depart the forward line (Richards, Papley, McGlynn). I think Kizza is likely to move forward and will thereby free up more space (added to the departure of Mitchell) in the midfield for types like Jones, Mills, maybe even Rampe. Reid will also play forward. Robbo is a reasonable stab at the third replacement. He was in favour last year and is pretty versatile. But there are so many others that could be fighting for that spot too: Florent, Towers, Rose, Edwards, BJ, Leonardis or even Dawson, Foote, Hayward, Fisher. Florent and Leonardis would both be exciting (debut!) selections that I would enjoy but I can't say if they deserve it. (On that note I would think that of the new recruits the only players I would fairly confidently rule a line through for round 1 are Pink and Maibaum (Maibaum mostly because we have other contenders in his position and he is clearly not at the front of that line). Actually, I'm nearly as confident to rule out Ronke and Fox too, although Fox's maturity gives him a small chance.)

In the backline, I would think Aliir will be picked when he is fit. O'Riordan won't be picked round 1 but could get a game later in the year (I certainly hope he does). Newman and Swampy might be competing for the same spot. I think Newman has Swampy covered for rebound and if Mills and Jones are going to spend more time in the midfield then that could tell in favour of Newman because we will need replacement rebound. Talia will be in the mix if his form is good and may be competing with AJ for a spot later in the year (if AJ can reach top form again this season). Gees, if I were Laidler, I'd be feeling the pressure big time! Someone like Leonardis could play (and has played) back but is unlikely to be chosen to play back ahead of other candidates for round 1 and, I suspect, at all this year. I quite like the idea of picking a KPD like Talia to take the second KPF leaving Aliir with the third tall (as someone else already suggested) and Rampe to just inject himself defensively/offensively/in the midfield as the situation requires. Whether we play someone like Talia as 2nd KPD may depend on opposition and venue. I suspect Talia and Marsh don't get picked in the same side if all our players are available. Newman might be a chance to get a game with Talia because there roles are more different.

The space in the midfield will be covered by shuffling the other players around and giving more midfield time to Heeney, Mills, Newman, Hewett and someone like Robbo.

I think Macca is pretty much a certainty to be picked round 1 if fit but after that he will be under pressure to hold his spot if his form is off (like it was at times last year).

Bring it on!! (In the meantime, I'm enjoying the snippets of AFLW I have seen!)

[bloodspirit]

So here is my conservative (and optimistic on injury front) 22 for round 1 (conservative because I'm erring in favour of the known quantities rather than the new recruits - but I'll give two alternative bench positions if we want to be more adventurous):

Smith Grundy Rampe
Jones Aliir McVeigh

Kennedy Hannebery Lloyd

K.Jack Reid Franklin
Hewett Tippett Rohan

Naismith Parker Heeney

Newman, Mills, Robinson, Towers (or substitute Florent, Edwards for the last two if you're feeling adventurous and their form over the next 6+ weeks merits it)

[Nico]

Not a fan of Robinson. To me he is way too outside, not strong at the footy and not a great deliverer of the footy. Harry Cunningham Mark 2. We don't need these types in our team. You don't win flags with them.

No way that Mills starts on the bench.

My worry of late is that we will have too many players under done. It appears the end of 2016 brought a number of injuries more serious than we thought.

[dejavoodoo44]

I haven't seen a lot in Foote that excites me but he does seem to be one of Horse's pets, all coaches have them.

COR is a lock to play senior footy for me this year, he could be a brute, just so aggressive and very skilful given his experience but I doubt it will be round 1.

I'd like to see BJ get a gig but can't see it happening.

Towers is the wildcard for me. That guy has the potential to be a matchwinner, he's shown that, and apparently he trains the house down but he just lacks self belief. I thought he would take the step last season and in the end he was probably lucky to be retained. But I think he can give the forward line a huge point of difference if he can get his head right.

Dawson's problem is that he doesn't seem to get enough of the footy. At NEAFL he is a bit of a flat track bully and he really needs to increase his stats because he won't get those easy possessions at AFL level. He has a peach of a left foot but that isn't enough I am afraid.

The only one of our draftees I think will get regular senior footy this year is Florent but I rate the others very highly, I just think they need a season in our system first

Just with Towers, while I agree that he has a confidence problem, I think that possibly stems from the fact that he doesn't see the game very well. That is, he sees the available options, a few milliseconds slower than naturally gifted players. Which is something that you may be able train for in the under tens, but probably not when you're in the AFL.
Also, Horse was talking up Heyward, so he may be a chance to replace the retired McGlynn and the injured Papley. From the footage that I've seen of him, he does have an impressive skill set.

[dejavoodoo44]

How good will it be to have Reid back !

I think Talia will be a regular in the senior side in 2017. Probably pushing out Laidler. If talia can hold down CHB, it will free up AA to go third defender and he'll be star.

Yep, it will be great to have Reid back; but as I write that, I feel almost like a commentator who says, 'Twenty metres out, straight in front, he won't miss from here'. That is, much of me is sure that Reid is going to be a star (recruit) this year, but I don't want to fully say so, because I suspect that any confidence, will only be repaid by; Sam Reid contracting a mystery illness, Sam Reid injuring his hamstring in a way that hasn't been seen by modern science, or Sam Reid being the first AFL footballer to be abducted by ISIS.
And yes, Aliir Aliir will be a star this year: especially how he turns defence into attack with his lightning quick decision making.

[dejavoodoo44]

Article up on the Swans website about Talia. Done all the training, has given commitments and just needs to keep them according to Horse.

Maybe his erratic off field lifestyle has affected his footy in the past and if he is now going straight and is dedicated he may have a lot of upside. We did pick him up for free so be great if he can come good, has all the physical attributes to succeed.

Newman must be a big chance to debut, was so impressive and composed at NEAFL level last year, given the holes in our best 22 he is highly likely for R1 you would think. O'Riordan is an exciting prospect, should debut this year.

Yep, definitely think that O'Riordan will debut this year. Though I would have Talia behind Aliir. To me, Aliir sees the game beautifully, has the confidence to play on quickly and almost always hits his targets.

[graemed]

Cannot believe I left out Lloyd. Had him in originally then took off the wing to put in Mills.
Definite in, would be ahead of almost anyone.
Sorry Robbo.

[wolftone57]

I haven't seen a lot in Foote that excites me but he does seem to be one of Horse's pets, all coaches have them. (Mug Punter)

The reason he would be a favourite is simply this; He might not have the talent of some others but he works twice as hard. He is 100% dedicated, he learns because he is willing to listen. Coaches love that.

As to the make up of the side at this stage these players are doubtful for round 1; Parksie, Aliir, Buddy, Rohan, Papley, Laidler & Naismith. Add the retired McGlinn (Teddy did not play toward the end of the season) & Turncoat Mitchell. There could be up to 9 players missing from the best 2016 side. If this occurs I think we need to rethink the forward-line, more than any other area. I'd bring in Dawson & Reid. Play Reid at CHF & Dawson in the pocket w Tip, Casey or Sinkas at FF. Shift Hayward to the other pocket. Florent to HF.

This is how that would look;

Hayward Cameron/Sinclair Dawson

Heeney Reid Florent

Robbo Kennedy Lloyd

Macca/Jones Talia/Maibaum Newman/O'Riordan

Rampe Grundy Smith

Ruck; Tippett, Mills, Hannas

I/C; Jack, Cunningham, Hewett, Towers (this is assuming Rohan is not ready if he is either Cunningham makes way & Rohan plays further up the ground or Dawson makes way & Rohan plays deep).

Hayward is freaky. He can leap like Tony Modra and is about the same build and height. He is a very good kick and knows how to manufacture goals. seen as the most dangerous forward in the draft. Kicked 9 in the SANFL U18 Prelim and 4 out of 7 in the GF. He doesn't care what the angle is if he thinks he can get it he will. If he is ready I think he will definitely play round 1.

Florent is already being groomed to take the HF role Heens did for 1.75 seasons before Horse shifted him to some mid roles as well as HF. This kid is elusive and quite quick but it is ability to break tackles by using his shimmy that wins every time. His delivery is super and kicks goals from anywhere if close enough.

In the early sessions I saw Maibaum was very solid down back. But so was Talia. so it could be a toss up. but it could be that neither Talia or Maibaum play and we opt for a smaller back-line. But with Dixon and Paddy there I think this would be a mistake. In that case one of the young guys will go out & Macca stays (there is no way, as some have suggested, he will play NEAFL). Jones will play too of course.

Robbo was one of our very good players before he got injured last season. I watched the games back and he was in pretty good nick. His tackling pressure and ability to impose on the contest in so many different ways is impressive. He tackles, shepherds, knocks the ball out to a teammate, marks, kicks generally well and presents as an option very well. Still learning but solid.

I think if Newman plays well pre-season he will get a gig.

[Mug Punter]

I am more than happy to trust Horse's judgement of Foote, they surely se a lot of upside and great to have another Sydney boy.

Agree with most of Wolftone's comments. We will have a bit better idea after Friday I reckon, Hayward looks a little light on physically for the rigours of AFL footy this year but I'd love to be wrong there. Florent I think will get quite a bit of game time. Cameron I think will get a look as he is physically ready and we tend to get our defenders to serve an apprenticeship so I reckon 2018 will be Maibaum's year.

All four draftees excite me but I just feel we may bring them on slowly. We've had a huge list regeneration the last two seasons when you think about it. Four draftees and four upgrades this season so we've effectively got eight first year players on the list, I tend to think we'll give all of them ample time to develop. End of this year will probably be more of an organic development of the list with only 2 or three falling off the list.

COR is the uncapped player from last year that I am most excited about. I know there's a huge amount of Newman love on here and he certainly earned his upgrade but gee he has a fair bit of competition for a spot in our backline, and that's a great thing.

[aguy]

Great thread aguy! I am enjoying reading comments. That said, I have to say, I also think it is kinda pointless. I don't think even the coaches know the answer to this question.

Thanks . I agree it's pointless. It's also kind of pointless during the season but we LOVE speculating