2017 decline in one chart

[neilfws]

If you like your footy stats and charts - who doesn't! - you should follow Matt Cowgill on Twitter, or at his blog, or read his new ESPN columns. This week:

Footy Forensics Your AFL club's key game trend part II

which features this chart of average fantasy points 2016 vs 2017:

r214113_1295x863_3-2.png

so basically red dots to the right = decline, blue dots to the right = improvement.

Probably slightly more improvements than declines, but the key thing is the players who have declined. Of course, a lot of that is games missed through injury.

[RogueSwan]

Pretty much confirms what we have seen this year. It would be interesting to see just the last four games compared to last year.
Is that AFL Fantasy points?

[ugg]

But the article does say he doesn't really know why the Swans have declined.

Fantasy scores can be an indicator of decline, but not necessarily so as it can be quite dependent on the style of game. For example, Collingwood and Essendon are both in the Top 4 for average fantasy points and yet lie 12th and 11th on the ladder respectively. Richmond have dropped almost 70 DT points per game from 2016 to 2017 and are doing better on the ladder despite ranking last on fantasy points by some margin.

And for context you would have to compare the same charts for the other 17 teams.

[southsideswan]

Jake Lloyd would be on 104 average except got concussed at start of last game. He would be just in front of Hannebery if that game not counted. Of the old guard only Buddy doing better.

[Ludwig]

One of the more telling analyses was for Melbourne:

The Dees have found a way to keep winning clearance counts despite being destroyed in the ruck. They've averaged 35.7 fewer hit-outs than their opponents in games without Gawn this year, a truly eye-popping deficit. But they're finding a way to win more stoppages than they lose despite this, with the AFL's third highest tackle count likely contributing. The Demons have adapted remarkably well to the loss of perhaps their most important player, showing tactical flexibility.

For me, this demonstrates the folly of continuing with 2 poorly performing ruckmen when no ruckman translates into as good a clearance performance as having the best ruckman in the game in your side.

[bloodspirit]

Ludwig, is it possible you have mentioned this before somewhere?

Great chart! Too bad it's based on Fantasy points which are not a very sophisticated points/ranking system. Would be much more interesting to see the same chart based on Champion data. Even SuperCoach is more sophisticated than the Fantasy points. [I learned this recently when I was trying to find out more about stats.]

[barry]

Ludwig, is it possible you have mentioned this before somewhere?

First Ive heard of it.

[RogueSwan]

One of the more telling analyses was for Melbourne:



For me, this demonstrates the folly of continuing with 2 poorly performing ruckmen when no ruckman translates into as good a clearance performance as having the best ruckman in the game in your side.

I have been wondering about your "zero tolerance for ruckmen"" theory and being trying to watch the contested ball a bit closer. It does seem that we can get our hands on the ball first the majority of the time but the opposition does seem happy to wait and tackle as soon as we have the ball. This then forces a hurried handball/kick which the second opposition is waiting for. Our "structure" then doesn't work as we are expecting the ball to be fed out, because Joey grabbed the tap down, whereas the opposition now have possession and are pushing the opposite way to our boys.

[Ludwig]

Ludwig, is it possible you have mentioned this before somewhere?

Nope.

This is a first time exclusive on this thread. Don't forget. You heard it first here!


PS: I heard Terry Wallace, who I've often called an idiot, say that he thinks we should drop Sinclair and only play Tippett as our ruckman. So I'll have to reconsider my position.

[Blood Fever]

I have been wondering about your "zero tolerance for ruckmen"" theory and being trying to watch the contested ball a bit closer. It does seem that we can get our hands on the ball first the majority of the time but the opposition does seem happy to wait and tackle as soon as we have the ball. This then forces a hurried handball/kick which the second opposition is waiting for. Our "structure" then doesn't work as we are expecting the ball to be fed out, because Joey grabbed the tap down, whereas the opposition now have possession and are pushing the opposite way to our boys.

Analytics and stats are important to a degree. What they don't show is the mental and physical state of each player. We had injuries and interrupted pre seasons for a number of good players. Longmire stated that the first month would be 'challenging'. The heartbreak of losing 2 grand finals in three years likely sapped mental energy from our core group. With a little bit of luck (Cwood, Hawks), we could be 5 and 5. It will be interesting to see how we approach the rest of the season given how far back we are from top 4 although Bulldogs won from 7th. May be better if we finish outside 8 this year and have a longer break to reload for next year. Competition is more even now but our list is still reasonable and we will have draft and trade opportunities that we often take advantage of. Mental state of squad is a big factor

[neilfws]

You all make good points, yes indeed fantasy points are far from ideal in many ways. But I guess the only freely-available option. Sometimes we have to make a story from what we have.

[S.S. Bleeder]

Thanks Neil. That's a fantastic chart. Parker, Jack and Tippett are the most telling deficiencies. Unfortunately, for me, it's not particularly surprising.

Tippett has been one of the worst recruits in Swans history. He's so fragile and has no ticker.

KJ is now past his best. Thiswill be his last good year so we might as well delegate him to NEAFL to give the youth a chance. I know he's contracted for another year but that's no reason to hinder our youth.

Parker I'm in two minds about. He is such a great player but I feel that having him and Hanners in or side makes us too slow. I hope he has an injury that we are unaware of but his season so far has been very poor.

[S.S. Bleeder]

Ludwig, is it possible you have mentioned this before somewhere?

Great chart! Too bad it's based on Fantasy points which are not a very sophisticated points/ranking system. Would be much more interesting to see the same chart based on Champion data. Even SuperCoach is more sophisticated than the Fantasy points. [I learned this recently when I was trying to find out more about stats.]

It's true that fantasy points are dependant of the role you play, ie mids get the highest scores and backs get the lowest scores. However, this is comparing individuals against their previous year. It should only be inaccurate if the player has changed position.

[Blood Tunnel]

Kizza will be fine. He played when his body was saying not to play.
Next year his last!

[Ludwig]

Kizza will be fine. He played when his body was saying not to play.
Next year his last!

Will we pay out his contract for 2019 to free up a spot on our list?