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The pundits in the press are saying a side will need 11 games this year to make the Eight. I think they're right, as it is the most even season in a long time. If we got 12 we would be in most probably. It's interesting that GWS dropped the game this week mainly because they are cruelled by injury. It is going to get harder for them as they rely on so few players who are fit. Their injuries keep coming with another couple dropping this week from their squad. They have very few players to choose from only having 12 players to pick in the reserves this weekend. This will now be 10. Eventually the pressure on the senior team will mount as the sore muscles, joints and psyche, that test players week in week out, with no relief. Some of those in the top eight have the benefit of an easy draw or seemed to have before the season started. But now they are battling aspirant sides bent on winning games, not just providing a contest. No side in the competition is incapable of beating any other side on a good day. Take the example on the weekend of Carlton beating GWS, Essendon murdering Port and the Lions massacre of Freo. Anyone is beatable.
Let's analyse the sides ahead of us on the ladder;
Adelaide, 5 games ahead; The Crows have been impressive this year but have a few problems. Even though they beat GWS, Power and Tigers they have also fallen at some very small hurdles. The catch cry is out 'beat Sloane and you beat Adelaide'. But for me that is far too simplistic. The opposition needs to have a very strong midfield of their own to not only take Sloane out but to also mug Crouch and the the other Crows mids. It isn't good enough just to take Sloane out as the Saints found out. The other thing needed is a very good backline who can break the lines. We have all of that. Crows have been both impressive and insipid in big doses this season. Against Norf and Demons they were insipid and not much better against Cats as I think the scoreboard flattered them. Many of the teams they have murdered have been struggling. Definitely top 1-8
GWS, 5 games ahead; GWS are struggling to keep their players on the park. Their injury list resembles RPA on a Saturday night. Too many more and they will start to struggle. No matter how many high draft picks you have, if they are mostly injured, your talent pool starts to get a bit shallow. At the moment they are just hanging on and the stress and other body problems are taking their toll. They have been incredibly brave in being able to find a way under great difficulty, as more and more players have gone down. But last week the toll was finally paid. If they start to get players back they will be almost unbeatable but until then they may start to struggle a bit. Another two players went down this week and even their depth is getting injured and that is not good. With a full list I'd say they will be top but as it stands they might just lose a few games until they get players back. 1-8
Geelong, 4 games ahead; This could be interesting. Cats have a bad record against sides out of the eight. They did last season too, often beating the sides above them then losing to bottom teams. The Cats, while they have some talent, are erratic and unpredictable. Which Cats team will turn up? The problem with their unheralded mids not doing enough still persists. The other problem is lazy forwards. In one game they chase and another they don't or in one quarter the do and in the next they don't. Personally I think this is one of the two most overrated teams in the comp. On their day they are very competent and have some real stars but inconsistency of their lesser known players is a huge problem. Sometimes it isn't the lesser lights it is players like Bliclavs, Menzel, Motlop, Cocatoo & Taylor (if playing forward) who just don't do enough. They rely on the Selwoods and Danger far too much. Reduce their effectiveness and you really hurt the Cats. You don't have to totally take them out of the game, it is about making sure their disposal in ineffective by monstering them every time they get the ball. 1-8
Richmond, 3 ahead: The Tigers have really impressed this year. Especially in the small forward and outside run category. These are areas they are strong in now. They have also improved hugely in second efforts and pressure acts. They have one problem I believe though. They depend on Jack, Dusty & Cotchin far too much in their respective positions. With Griffiths available they wouldn't just have Jack Rewoldt as their only tall target forward. But without him they are susceptible in this area. Cotchin and Martin control all their midfield movement. Stop their effectiveness and you are half way to stopping Richmond. The other strength is Rance. But he has, on so many occasions, had to do it on his own. He has a bit more help this year but they are still fragile back. If you lure him out of the play, keep him deep or drag him up the ground, he becomes a non issue. but if you leave him all the space across his half back line to intercept he'll slaughter you. The Tigers are still developing and have quite a few youngsters. Reliability is a problem. Which Tigers will turn up next week? Who knows, I hope it is the insipid one. 1-8
Port Adelaide, 2 ahead; The cracks are starting to show. Port can be opened up so easily if their players don't work hard. Their forwards and mids were precious against Essendon. That was the reason they were easily opened up. Dixon has been good for them and if you add Westoff drifting down into the forward mix they are dangerous. Rider has so far not produced the same form as he did at the Bombers. Their young players have been good but when you are relying on young key position players in defence you are going to have problems with some of the marquee forwards. Even Cale Hooker, who isn't a marquee forward, exposed them. Their mids and small forwards spend too much time playing for frees and some of their efforts recently have been nothing short of laughable. If they play footy they are a dangerous team. If they decide to take the easy way out and start doing a Pelle, then they are in deep @@@@. I think Port are a mid range team 6-12.
Melbourne, 2 games ahead; The Dees are building. They have won some good matches. But they have lost some they should have won. This is an indication of a young, developing side. With Roos and now Goodwin there has been one thing instilled in this squad; Belief. But in a developing side belief is fleeting so they are not going to be dependable. There will be times when old habits will die hard. They have had real problems with injuries, especially talls. But this seems to be clearing up with a few players coming back soon, in Hogan and Gawn. Dees will be in the 8. How do you beat them? Unrelenting pressure. Developing sides are always prone to the odd collapse under huge pressure. Collingwood, while quite good, gave the Dees mids far too much room. Come to think of it the Dees mids gave Pies mids far too much room. There was a lot of uncontested footy. This is how sides at about this stage of development prefer to play. So don't let them play like that, pressure and more pressure. Mid range team, 6-12
Essendon, 2 games ahead; It seems this is the media 'love child' this year. I simply can't understand the Melbourne centric media. This team cheated, simple. Yet everybody down south has great love for them. Mind boggles. They are a very good side but in their last match even Ringwood under 10's could have been a very good side, Port were so insipid. Another developing side, developing in the sense of having to meld the old with the new. Dons love the outside game. When Whoosher coached the Weagles they liked that sort of game too. But they were also very strong on the inside. I don't think Dons are as strong as Whoosher's Weagles on the inside. They have a very good spine. A good midfield. Some of their small forwards are very dangerous but not consistent. If they could bring the same game every match, like they did against Port, they would be very good indeed. But they don't and against hard, tough, pressure they are another side that finds the going a bit tough. 6-12.
Western Bulldogs, 2 games ahead; We showed what you do to beat these guys. Stop their run and spread. Pressure, pressure, pressure. They don't score a lot of goals. As much as the media would like to say they do. They average 11.7 goals/game and give away 11.8 so they are in deficit. They are ranked 14th in points/game. They are ranked 5th for disposals but 16th for kicks so most of their game revolves around handball where they are 1st. This is their Achilles as we so blatantly showed the world last Thursday. A side that relies far too much on one skill moving the ball is always going to be trouble if they aren't allowed to use that skill effectively. They don't like high pressure either and would rather play an almost total outside game. They have pretty good inside mids but their main skill is they are inside/outside mids that move the ball quickly by handball and set up outside movement. But if this breaks down their kicking skills are not that good under pressure and if you make them kick down the line they are at a huge disadvantage. The reason for the disadvantage is they don't have many pack marking talls. They have plenty of talls but most of them are not good contested marks. They've been found out 6-12
West Coast Eagles, 2 ahead; So many people I know crow about this side haha. I'm not convinced at all. I think they are a pretty soft unit. Not at all a hard nosed team like the Woosher's Weagles. The only place out of Perth they seem to be able to win is Adelaide. After the first win in the season at Etihad everyone was saying the Weagles had broken their hoodoo. But they have lost 2 at the G, 1 at Etihad and 1 at Metricon. they even lost at Patterson's. As I say I'm not convinced and think they are highly overrated. There are too many of their players who simply fold under intense pressure. Their forward-line folds under pressure and their two way running is very suspect, if it happens at all from some of their forwards. On their day they can be a really good side, that is if everyone puts in, tackles and pressures. But on an off day they are terrible. Too wishy washy 8-14.
Fremantle, 2 ahead; Talk about overrated. All year the media have been raving about Ross' resurrection. Well they have come down with a huge thump. This is another developing team getting way ahead of themselves. Their best footy is pretty good but their worst footy is 'didn't give a wimper' stuff. Are they good enough to play finals at this stage? A flat out NO! 9-16
Collingwood, 1 game ahead; Talk about inconsistent. Supposedly a team on the rise. They come close but not quite. Even with Elliot in the side they still didn't look quite there. Close but not quite good enough. It could be the game plan. It could be the players. But they seem to like the ball wide and far from the packs. Bucks liked it that way, never liked contact. But in close and under intense pressure they fumble and their disposal is crap. They are a side that likes the open spaces. Give them open spaces at your peril. But bottle them up, keep them close and they are history. Melbourne allowed them far too much space and nearly lost the game. Collingwood don't really beat good sides. The only top eight side they have beaten is Cats, who as we know are also inconsistent. Don't all start getting your nickers in a knot and saying they beat us. We were not a good side when we played them. We were on the way to 0-6. The only other sides they have beaten are; dockers, Lions & Hawks. Says it all really. 8-16
St Kilda, 1 ahead; Talk about overrated. The media constantly talk this mob up and they frequently put in insipid performances. Last week and the game against us were good examples of how ordinary this side is. There is no way they are going to make finals. As soon as we win our next match we will be ahead of them on the ladder. After all I don't see them winning too many more. 13-18
Gold Coast Suns, 1 ahead; This mob are actually on the rise. Although they haven't beaten any side in the eight. The Weagles are the closest they come. They should have plenty of top end talent but I think they drafted really badly and their organisation was crap. Eade seems to be doing a good job with an ordinary list. Trying to turn players into good inside mids is difficult and when their young inside mids are all from the outer, it's more difficult. They also lost good mids to the go home factor. They have good bookends but they don't have enough help. Ablett was a mistake because the team is centred around him and a team should not be centred around anyone (hear this Horse). 12-16
North Melbourne, level; The reason Norf are here is simple. the media keeps telling us how good they are and if it wasn't for them losing all the time they'd be top eight team. So would we mate and we seem to have at least slowed the rot. I'd like to thank Norf for gifting us out second win, a 42 point flogging, for the season. Are they as good as the media keep telling us? Well the win loss record this year would indicate a definite, NO. The have some players to work with but again many are coming to the retirement age too. They committed to a trading strategy to win a premiership with their 'Dad's Army'. When that didn't work they traded a bit younger but not much and did draft a few youngsters. But there doesn't seem to be a confident 5 year or other plan in place for a premiership run. They have some good young players but still a lot of older players who will be looking to retire in the next two years. 13-18.
The Hawks, Blues & Lions won't make finals. The Hawks because the difference between their best and worst is just too much. The Blues because; basically the same. The Lions are just starting to play a brand that is up to AFL standard. A lot of respect for Fagan, he's giving them lots of leash and getting them to play to their strengths. But not finals. They could get off the bottom though.
Let's analyse the sides ahead of us on the ladder;
Adelaide, 5 games ahead; The Crows have been impressive this year but have a few problems. Even though they beat GWS, Power and Tigers they have also fallen at some very small hurdles. The catch cry is out 'beat Sloane and you beat Adelaide'. But for me that is far too simplistic. The opposition needs to have a very strong midfield of their own to not only take Sloane out but to also mug Crouch and the the other Crows mids. It isn't good enough just to take Sloane out as the Saints found out. The other thing needed is a very good backline who can break the lines. We have all of that. Crows have been both impressive and insipid in big doses this season. Against Norf and Demons they were insipid and not much better against Cats as I think the scoreboard flattered them. Many of the teams they have murdered have been struggling. Definitely top 1-8
GWS, 5 games ahead; GWS are struggling to keep their players on the park. Their injury list resembles RPA on a Saturday night. Too many more and they will start to struggle. No matter how many high draft picks you have, if they are mostly injured, your talent pool starts to get a bit shallow. At the moment they are just hanging on and the stress and other body problems are taking their toll. They have been incredibly brave in being able to find a way under great difficulty, as more and more players have gone down. But last week the toll was finally paid. If they start to get players back they will be almost unbeatable but until then they may start to struggle a bit. Another two players went down this week and even their depth is getting injured and that is not good. With a full list I'd say they will be top but as it stands they might just lose a few games until they get players back. 1-8
Geelong, 4 games ahead; This could be interesting. Cats have a bad record against sides out of the eight. They did last season too, often beating the sides above them then losing to bottom teams. The Cats, while they have some talent, are erratic and unpredictable. Which Cats team will turn up? The problem with their unheralded mids not doing enough still persists. The other problem is lazy forwards. In one game they chase and another they don't or in one quarter the do and in the next they don't. Personally I think this is one of the two most overrated teams in the comp. On their day they are very competent and have some real stars but inconsistency of their lesser known players is a huge problem. Sometimes it isn't the lesser lights it is players like Bliclavs, Menzel, Motlop, Cocatoo & Taylor (if playing forward) who just don't do enough. They rely on the Selwoods and Danger far too much. Reduce their effectiveness and you really hurt the Cats. You don't have to totally take them out of the game, it is about making sure their disposal in ineffective by monstering them every time they get the ball. 1-8
Richmond, 3 ahead: The Tigers have really impressed this year. Especially in the small forward and outside run category. These are areas they are strong in now. They have also improved hugely in second efforts and pressure acts. They have one problem I believe though. They depend on Jack, Dusty & Cotchin far too much in their respective positions. With Griffiths available they wouldn't just have Jack Rewoldt as their only tall target forward. But without him they are susceptible in this area. Cotchin and Martin control all their midfield movement. Stop their effectiveness and you are half way to stopping Richmond. The other strength is Rance. But he has, on so many occasions, had to do it on his own. He has a bit more help this year but they are still fragile back. If you lure him out of the play, keep him deep or drag him up the ground, he becomes a non issue. but if you leave him all the space across his half back line to intercept he'll slaughter you. The Tigers are still developing and have quite a few youngsters. Reliability is a problem. Which Tigers will turn up next week? Who knows, I hope it is the insipid one. 1-8
Port Adelaide, 2 ahead; The cracks are starting to show. Port can be opened up so easily if their players don't work hard. Their forwards and mids were precious against Essendon. That was the reason they were easily opened up. Dixon has been good for them and if you add Westoff drifting down into the forward mix they are dangerous. Rider has so far not produced the same form as he did at the Bombers. Their young players have been good but when you are relying on young key position players in defence you are going to have problems with some of the marquee forwards. Even Cale Hooker, who isn't a marquee forward, exposed them. Their mids and small forwards spend too much time playing for frees and some of their efforts recently have been nothing short of laughable. If they play footy they are a dangerous team. If they decide to take the easy way out and start doing a Pelle, then they are in deep @@@@. I think Port are a mid range team 6-12.
Melbourne, 2 games ahead; The Dees are building. They have won some good matches. But they have lost some they should have won. This is an indication of a young, developing side. With Roos and now Goodwin there has been one thing instilled in this squad; Belief. But in a developing side belief is fleeting so they are not going to be dependable. There will be times when old habits will die hard. They have had real problems with injuries, especially talls. But this seems to be clearing up with a few players coming back soon, in Hogan and Gawn. Dees will be in the 8. How do you beat them? Unrelenting pressure. Developing sides are always prone to the odd collapse under huge pressure. Collingwood, while quite good, gave the Dees mids far too much room. Come to think of it the Dees mids gave Pies mids far too much room. There was a lot of uncontested footy. This is how sides at about this stage of development prefer to play. So don't let them play like that, pressure and more pressure. Mid range team, 6-12
Essendon, 2 games ahead; It seems this is the media 'love child' this year. I simply can't understand the Melbourne centric media. This team cheated, simple. Yet everybody down south has great love for them. Mind boggles. They are a very good side but in their last match even Ringwood under 10's could have been a very good side, Port were so insipid. Another developing side, developing in the sense of having to meld the old with the new. Dons love the outside game. When Whoosher coached the Weagles they liked that sort of game too. But they were also very strong on the inside. I don't think Dons are as strong as Whoosher's Weagles on the inside. They have a very good spine. A good midfield. Some of their small forwards are very dangerous but not consistent. If they could bring the same game every match, like they did against Port, they would be very good indeed. But they don't and against hard, tough, pressure they are another side that finds the going a bit tough. 6-12.
Western Bulldogs, 2 games ahead; We showed what you do to beat these guys. Stop their run and spread. Pressure, pressure, pressure. They don't score a lot of goals. As much as the media would like to say they do. They average 11.7 goals/game and give away 11.8 so they are in deficit. They are ranked 14th in points/game. They are ranked 5th for disposals but 16th for kicks so most of their game revolves around handball where they are 1st. This is their Achilles as we so blatantly showed the world last Thursday. A side that relies far too much on one skill moving the ball is always going to be trouble if they aren't allowed to use that skill effectively. They don't like high pressure either and would rather play an almost total outside game. They have pretty good inside mids but their main skill is they are inside/outside mids that move the ball quickly by handball and set up outside movement. But if this breaks down their kicking skills are not that good under pressure and if you make them kick down the line they are at a huge disadvantage. The reason for the disadvantage is they don't have many pack marking talls. They have plenty of talls but most of them are not good contested marks. They've been found out 6-12
West Coast Eagles, 2 ahead; So many people I know crow about this side haha. I'm not convinced at all. I think they are a pretty soft unit. Not at all a hard nosed team like the Woosher's Weagles. The only place out of Perth they seem to be able to win is Adelaide. After the first win in the season at Etihad everyone was saying the Weagles had broken their hoodoo. But they have lost 2 at the G, 1 at Etihad and 1 at Metricon. they even lost at Patterson's. As I say I'm not convinced and think they are highly overrated. There are too many of their players who simply fold under intense pressure. Their forward-line folds under pressure and their two way running is very suspect, if it happens at all from some of their forwards. On their day they can be a really good side, that is if everyone puts in, tackles and pressures. But on an off day they are terrible. Too wishy washy 8-14.
Fremantle, 2 ahead; Talk about overrated. All year the media have been raving about Ross' resurrection. Well they have come down with a huge thump. This is another developing team getting way ahead of themselves. Their best footy is pretty good but their worst footy is 'didn't give a wimper' stuff. Are they good enough to play finals at this stage? A flat out NO! 9-16
Collingwood, 1 game ahead; Talk about inconsistent. Supposedly a team on the rise. They come close but not quite. Even with Elliot in the side they still didn't look quite there. Close but not quite good enough. It could be the game plan. It could be the players. But they seem to like the ball wide and far from the packs. Bucks liked it that way, never liked contact. But in close and under intense pressure they fumble and their disposal is crap. They are a side that likes the open spaces. Give them open spaces at your peril. But bottle them up, keep them close and they are history. Melbourne allowed them far too much space and nearly lost the game. Collingwood don't really beat good sides. The only top eight side they have beaten is Cats, who as we know are also inconsistent. Don't all start getting your nickers in a knot and saying they beat us. We were not a good side when we played them. We were on the way to 0-6. The only other sides they have beaten are; dockers, Lions & Hawks. Says it all really. 8-16
St Kilda, 1 ahead; Talk about overrated. The media constantly talk this mob up and they frequently put in insipid performances. Last week and the game against us were good examples of how ordinary this side is. There is no way they are going to make finals. As soon as we win our next match we will be ahead of them on the ladder. After all I don't see them winning too many more. 13-18
Gold Coast Suns, 1 ahead; This mob are actually on the rise. Although they haven't beaten any side in the eight. The Weagles are the closest they come. They should have plenty of top end talent but I think they drafted really badly and their organisation was crap. Eade seems to be doing a good job with an ordinary list. Trying to turn players into good inside mids is difficult and when their young inside mids are all from the outer, it's more difficult. They also lost good mids to the go home factor. They have good bookends but they don't have enough help. Ablett was a mistake because the team is centred around him and a team should not be centred around anyone (hear this Horse). 12-16
North Melbourne, level; The reason Norf are here is simple. the media keeps telling us how good they are and if it wasn't for them losing all the time they'd be top eight team. So would we mate and we seem to have at least slowed the rot. I'd like to thank Norf for gifting us out second win, a 42 point flogging, for the season. Are they as good as the media keep telling us? Well the win loss record this year would indicate a definite, NO. The have some players to work with but again many are coming to the retirement age too. They committed to a trading strategy to win a premiership with their 'Dad's Army'. When that didn't work they traded a bit younger but not much and did draft a few youngsters. But there doesn't seem to be a confident 5 year or other plan in place for a premiership run. They have some good young players but still a lot of older players who will be looking to retire in the next two years. 13-18.
The Hawks, Blues & Lions won't make finals. The Hawks because the difference between their best and worst is just too much. The Blues because; basically the same. The Lions are just starting to play a brand that is up to AFL standard. A lot of respect for Fagan, he's giving them lots of leash and getting them to play to their strengths. But not finals. They could get off the bottom though.
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