Changes for Rnd 19 V Hawthorn

[wolftone57]

You are simply defining what Naismith does and calling it a role. It is more a statement about his limitations. He can only play as a ruckman, otherwise he doesn't have a spot in the side. He's a good ruckman, but certainly not a dominant ruckman. He was outplayed in the ruck by Billy Longer. Neither did much around the ground. When we last played Hawthorn Tippett and Sinclair shared the ruck duties and dominated McEvoy. We clearly won the hitouts and the clearances, despite losing the game.

Tippett has only played 5 games this year, one of which he injured his ankle in the first quarter and was clearly not fit when he next played against GWS, so the stats are not a good indication of what he is capable of. I don't know if he can get back to his best, which most would say was the first half of last year before his hamstring injury. At that time he was our number 1 ruckman and also kicked plenty of goals.

Tippett, Sinclair and Cameron can all play as ruckmen, but can also hold down a role as a forward. I think that flexibility is a positive.

Looking at the current situation, we have 2 spots to fill with 4 possible candidates: Naismith, Sinclair, Reid and Tippett. We are not going back to playing 2 ruckmen + another forward. If Reid is fit, he plays the forward role, so it's down to who should play in the ruck. Sinclair is undroppable this round based on his career best performance, which would mean that Naismith would go out anyway if Reid plays. I'm assuming that Reid will be given another week off, so this may be the last chance to give Tippett a go in the senior side. When Reid is back Tippett will have to get past both Sinclair and Naismith to get into the side.

Tippett, at his best, is our fist choice ruckman. I would like to see how he goes before we put a line through him for the rest of year.

That was then. Tippett also managed to only 8 HO at his last outing before being injured. We didn't ruck Sinclair last week and that was good. That let him concentrate on being a focus up forward. Tippett absolutely dominated in the reserves before coming back to the seniors and playing like a spud. The other thing is Tippett does not HO to advantage nearly as often as Naismith. He doesn't give too many second efforts either. He is not as mobile and won't even think about chasing faster players. Naismith is and does all these. Tippett is nowhere near our first choice ruckman.

[wolftone57]

Sinclair is undroppable this round based on his performance as a key forward, not as a ruckman. He spent barely any (if any) time in the ruck last week. His contribution was clunking marks and kicking goals. You wouldn't elevate him into the number one ruck role based on that performance any more than you'd move Melican to full forward based on his excellent game in defence.

If Reid comes back into the side it will be

a) as a third tall forward (alongside Buddy and Sinclair)
b) because either Buddy or Sinclair is injured
c) at the expense of Sinclair.

c) won't happen this week (unless b also applies) but it could the following week if Sinclair has little impact against the Hawks.

It is possible, somewhere down the track, that the coaches decide that Tippett and Sinclair can share rucking and forward duties and that Naismith makes way. But I see close to zero chance of Sinclair playing as the sole ruckman while Naismith is fit and available, not even as a means to squeeze Reid into the side.

Well reasoned Liz

[Billericay]

That was then. Tippett also managed to only 8 HO at his last outing before being injured. We didn't ruck Sinclair last week and that was good. That let him concentrate on being a focus up forward. Tippett absolutely dominated in the reserves before coming back to the seniors and playing like a spud. The other thing is Tippett does not HO to advantage nearly as often as Naismith. He doesn't give too many second efforts either. He is not as mobile and won't even think about chasing faster players. Naismith is and does all these. Tippett is nowhere near our first choice ruckman.

I agree. Naismith is our best ruckman and Reid our best tall forward, which means right now Tippett is only a depth player, for now second in line behind Clunkers. The game has moved on and he's not mobile enough. I don't know if he can change his body shape to be less of a monster.

It also means he's the most overpaid player in the comp - worse than Prestia ($700k tagger), Vickery or Mayne. Perhaps we could bundle him up with some draft picks and get Dusty in return in a Dangerfield type deal?

[S.S. Bleeder]

I agree. Naismith is our best ruckman and Reid our best tall forward, which means right now Tippett is only a depth player, for now second in line behind Clunkers. The game has moved on and he's not mobile enough. I don't know if he can change his body shape to be less of a monster.

It also means he's the most overpaid player in the comp - worse than Prestia ($700k tagger), Vickery or Mayne. Perhaps we could bundle him up with some draft picks and get Dusty in return in a Dangerfield type deal?

That's got to be the most succinct and accurate summary of the Tippett situation I've read to date.

[Ludwig]

Sinclair is undroppable this round based on his performance as a key forward, not as a ruckman. He spent barely any (if any) time in the ruck last week. His contribution was clunking marks and kicking goals. You wouldn't elevate him into the number one ruck role based on that performance any more than you'd move Melican to full forward based on his excellent game in defence.

If Reid comes back into the side it will be

a) as a third tall forward (alongside Buddy and Sinclair)
b) because either Buddy or Sinclair is injured
c) at the expense of Sinclair.

c) won't happen this week (unless b also applies) but it could the following week if Sinclair has little impact against the Hawks.

It is possible, somewhere down the track, that the coaches decide that Tippett and Sinclair can share rucking and forward duties and that Naismith makes way. But I see close to zero chance of Sinclair playing as the sole ruckman while Naismith is fit and available, not even as a means to squeeze Reid into the side.

The Melican comparison doesn't stand up as Melican has only played as a defender, while this was the first game I can remember where Sinclair did not share the ruck duties. He's often played as our number 1 ruckman, albeit not particularly well.

The only real knock I've had on Sinclair has been his marking, which seems to have significantly improved.

Hopefully the days of playing 3 tall forwards are long gone, after we've been playing our best footy since dropping the 2nd ruckman.

I've long stated that we made a mistake by investing too much in spots and cap space into ruckmen and now find ourselves with superfluous players. I hope we can unload Tippett after this season, but he's still on our list and potentially our best player for that spot in the side and I think this week, with Reid under and injury cloud, we should give Tippo a go. I don't know what we would do if Tippett and Sinclair both played very well. It would present a real selection dilemma for the following week.

BTW, if Sinclair can play consistently with the form of last week, he would be more useful than Naismith as a primary ruckman, even if he's not as good as Sam at the stoppages. His coverage around the ground and goal kicking would more than compensate for deficiencies as a ruckman. Replacing Naismith is not the same as replacing Mummy of Max Gawn.

All that said, I don't expect any changes this week. I'm only suggesting a couple that I believe would improve the side, but I can understand that Longmire doesn't like to change a winning side.


PS: We are not playing Aliir this year for fear that if he played in the seniors the AFL would impose an Excessive Talent Luxury Tax on the Swans.

[graemed]

I don't agree with you that Hayward was BOG. I think Dawson was and so did the coaches. Let's face it 40 disposals, 8 tackles and 3 goals is pretty good.Hayward a close second

Those are impressive stats especially the tackles, which I must admit I didn't figure in. Dawson is a fine player but there are two aspects of his game that disturb me and perhaps colour my opinion:
A) his marked lack of leg speed
B) his unwillingness to share the ball on the forward line
I hope I am wrong about him and that any deficiencies in his game are not irreversible.
Hayward won every contest in which he was involved, he was a target for players coming out of defence and he played a strong defensive role covering one side of the ground when we were locking down the D50.

[Blood Fever]

The Melican comparison doesn't stand up as Melican has only played as a defender, while this was the first game I can remember where Sinclair did not share the ruck duties. He's often played as our number 1 ruckman, albeit not particularly well.

The only real knock I've had on Sinclair has been his marking, which seems to have significantly improved.

Hopefully the days of playing 3 tall forwards are long gone, after we've been playing our best footy since dropping the 2nd ruckman.

I've long stated that we made a mistake by investing too much in spots and cap space into ruckmen and now find ourselves with superfluous players. I hope we can unload Tippett after this season, but he's still on our list and potentially our best player for that spot in the side and I think this week, with Reid under and injury cloud, we should give Tippo a go. I don't know what we would do if Tippett and Sinclair both played very well. It would present a real selection dilemma for the following week.

BTW, if Sinclair can play consistently with the form of last week, he would be more useful than Naismith as a primary ruckman, even if he's not as good as Sam at the stoppages. His coverage around the ground and goal kicking would more than compensate for deficiencies as a ruckman. Replacing Naismith is not the same as replacing Mummy of Max Gawn.

All that said, I don't expect any changes this week. I'm only suggesting a couple that I believe would improve the side, but I can understand that Longmire doesn't like to change a winning side.


PS: We are not playing Aliir this year for fear that if he played in the seniors the AFL would impose an Excessive Talent Luxury Tax on the Swans.

Naismith is developing really well. He suits our clearance set up really well and is deceptively agile. He also pressures the opposition much better than either Tippett or Sinclair. With our set up, he hardly ever goes forward. If he spent more time up forward, he would kick goals. He is obviously regarded by the match committee as our best ruckman and he will get a lot better. Tippett is not reliable physically and is now back up, albeit a talented one.

[RogueSwan]

... Hayward won every contest in which he was involved, he was a target for players coming out of defence and he played a strong defensive role covering one side of the ground when we were locking down the D50.

... and has already proven very capable at the senior level. Dawson will get his chance but Hayward has shown a lot already and we just need to keep pumping games into him.

[stevoswan]

Going to the game tomorrow night. Should be a cracker. Barring late injuries I forsee no changes but I would love to see Dawson first hand. It's a pity his superb is form is coinciding with the seniors great form. Haywoods injury was ill timed as well. He may find it tough to break back in.....but should at some point. Allir maybe unlucky this year as well....Go Swans!!

[Boddo]

Just on everyone talking about Sinclair not playing solely as a forward. Please stand corrected. He was recruited to wce predominantly as a forward who got turned into a forward/ ruck then ruck/forward then a ruck who helped occasionally down forward. personally I've always thought his spot was forward.


Back on topic we win this week we win comfortably. No change unless Reid gets called up.

[CureTheSane]

Just on everyone talking about Sinclair not playing solely as a forward. Please stand corrected. He was recruited to wce predominantly as a forward who got turned into a forward/ ruck then ruck/forward then a ruck who helped occasionally down forward. personally I've always thought his spot was forward.

Yeah, me too. To the point that I thought maybe I misinterpreted how he came to the Swans as many here seem to see him as a Ruck who drifts forward from time to time.

I've always seem him (ideally) as a forward who can be used in a ruck as an option.
In a perfect world you've have 2 talls who can more than adequately relieve the ruck - one from the forward line and one from the back line depending on how the game is travelling.

[Jeynez]

I think Tippett will have to come into the side IF he is fit. Naismith has been great for us and he will only get better, but he won't dominate a game for us like Tippett can. Come finals time, we'll need Tippett's big body around stoppages -- PLUS he can rotate with Sinclair and snag a goal or two at FF. Tippett + Sinclair will offer more than Naismith + Sinclair, and there's no reason we shouldn't be playing Tippett if he's fit.

Also, what are our thoughts on Cunningham? Was definitely in our best 22 before he got injured, and is now listed as Test on the injury list. Obviously, he'll play through the reserves first, but is there even a place for him in the seniors anymore when he's fit again?

[barry]

You sound like you'd like us to revert to the "rounds 1-6" team structure?

The thing about playing 1 ruckman is it removes the temptation to play them elsewhere. Sometimes flexibility is overrated. Be a specialist.

[neilfws]

Interesting to note that statistically-speaking, "The Swans are now about as good as they were this time last year".

Footy Forensics Sydney Swans could rewrite history how have they done it?

Main change I want to see is in the "versus Hawthorn mindset". I think we've won 7 of the last 20 encounters...time to believe that this great streak of form can take them down.

[Boddo]

Yeah, me too. To the point that I thought maybe I misinterpreted how he came to the Swans as many here seem to see him as a Ruck who drifts forward from time to time.

I've always seem him (ideally) as a forward who can be used in a ruck as an option.
In a perfect world you've have 2 talls who can more than adequately relieve the ruck - one from the forward line and one from the back line depending on how the game is travelling.

As a pure ruckman I've never believed he could carry a side to a premiership but as a forward who relieves in the ruck occasionally he could play a part. When he first started at wce he looked like he could develop into something pretty good as I expected as he matured he would start holding his marks. Being turned into a ruck could have slowed his development as a forward so maybe, n that's a big maybe, he might turn it around. The next month will say a lot about his future. Good luck to him.