Free kick differential over the last 15 years

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  • Blue Sun
    Senior Player
    • May 2010
    • 1440

    #16
    Originally posted by stevoswan
    In addition to the above, I was reading an article in the Hun (I think) showing home ground free kick differentials of all clubs since, I think, the early 2000's but I'll concentrate on the non Victorian teams. Our home ground diff. was +72.....slightly surprising that we were actually positive but of no surprise was the largest positive differential.....West Coast +452. Yes, +452 !!!

    The Adelaide based teams also had very healthy positive differentials, Freo positive but not as favoured as WC, Crows and Power. GWS also positive but similar to Freo. Brisbane fair badly for some reason but not as badly as us. We have the lowest positive differential of all the interstate teams.......

    ......and back to the player free kick differentials, here are the top five end of season differentials since 1999, ie: player most loved by the umpires.

    BEST DIFFERENTIAL SEASONS SINCE 1999

    Joel Selwood (Geel) 2013 +45 free kicks
    Joel Selwood (Geel) 2008 +42
    Joel Selwood (Geel) 2017 +40
    Angus Monfries (Ess) 2008 +39
    Joel Selwood (Geel) 2014 +38

    Wow!

    Conclusion? AFL umpires have little to no integrity.....just like their employer.
    To be fair, Selwood knew how to stage for the free kick, it wasn?t necessarily the umpires fault. Selwood used to drop his knees to force high contact, or duck into tackles. The umpires just call the high contact. As for the 2016 GF (and season in general), well, I feel I?ve already said enough.

    Comment

    • Bill Posters
      Warming the Bench
      • Sep 2014
      • 259

      #17
      Surprised to see the hawks near the bottom, looks like they got smashed between 2005 and 2011. What happened there?

      Comment

      • bloodspirit
        Clubman
        • Apr 2015
        • 4448

        #18
        Originally posted by ugg
        Given that GWS have been in existence for less than half the time period shown in the graphic, double their tally and it?s clear there?s an anti-Sydney conspiracy.
        Can't tell whether you're stirring, ugg. I think you are. Not that the stats aren't alarming. I don't think it's anything as simple as a 'get Sydney' conspiracy' (unlike the trade ban).

        I think the problem is that our crowds aren't as vocal as the others. Crowds in Perth strongly and loudly favour the home teams, ditto in Adelaide. Not so much in Sydney and Brisbane. How do the big Melbourne clubs go against out of towners at home? (The effect would be less pronounced when they're playing other Melbourne teams represented in the crowd.)

        SCG crowds are relatively polite and quiet except when something happens or the game is very close. I haven't been to Adelaide Oval but on TV you get the impression the crowd noise never falls below a dull roar and is wild when free kicks should be paid or goals scored by home team etc.
        All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated, and well supported in logic and argument than others. -Douglas Adams, author (11 Mar 1952-2001)

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        • crackedactor
          Regular in the Side
          • May 2012
          • 919

          #19
          Originally posted by bloodspirit
          Can't tell whether you're stirring, ugg. I think you are. Not that the stats aren't alarming. I don't think it's anything as simple as a 'get Sydney' conspiracy' (unlike the trade ban).

          I think the problem is that our crowds aren't as vocal as the others. Crowds in Perth strongly and loudly favour the home teams, ditto in Adelaide. Not so much in Sydney and Brisbane. How do the big Melbourne clubs go against out of towners at home? (The effect would be less pronounced when they're playing other Melbourne teams represented in the crowd.)

          SCG crowds are relatively polite and quiet except when something happens or the game is very close. I haven't been to Adelaide Oval but on TV you get the impression the crowd noise never falls below a dull roar and is wild when free kicks should be paid or goals scored by home team etc.
          The loudest of the crowd should gave no bearing on umpires decisions. They are suppose to Be professional And the best in the land.


          Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

          Comment

          • bloodspirit
            Clubman
            • Apr 2015
            • 4448

            #20
            Originally posted by crackedactor
            The loudest of the crowd should gave no bearing on umpires decisions. They are suppose to Be professional And the best in the land.


            Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
            Too true.
            All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated, and well supported in logic and argument than others. -Douglas Adams, author (11 Mar 1952-2001)

            Comment

            • neilfws
              Senior Player
              • Aug 2009
              • 1835

              #21
              Attached images have a habit of vanishing for me...let's see how this goes.

              I've been thinking about this data. There's at least one error in there: -4 for Adelaide in 2017 should be +4 (based on FootyWire statistics), so we should be cautious.

              I have some issues with the presentation:
              • Free kicks are summed over a long, arbitrary period during which personnel and game style changed
              • There's no indication of what's "normal" - i.e. average, over time, by team or for the league as a whole
              • It's hard to see whether teams are going "better" or "worse" than average over time
              • It would be informative to see the numbers for home versus away games


              So I made a very minimalist chart which strips away all the axes, labels, years, numbers...and just shows the trends for 2010-2017. Coloured by home or away, with the averages across those seasons, for all teams (dotted lines) and each team (dashed lines), allowing comparison to each season.

              I haven't shown any zero lines, on purpose. Partly to avoid clutter. But also because I'd like people to focus on the trends or comparisons, not whether frees for equals frees against. We tend to assume that equal free kicks awarded equals a "fair game" - but why? There are many legitimate reasons why free kick counts could be different. Go on, think of some

              afl_fd.jpg

              Some initial observations.
              Adelaide are very close to the league average for both home and away games, as are Essendon and Richmond.
              Brisbane, GWS and St Kilda get nothing.
              For all the cries of "free kick Hawthorn", their free kick differential away is close to the league average, and lower than average for home.
              West Coast at home is outrageously high. But both home and away have declined in recent years.
              A lot of the Bulldogs differential in 2016 was driven by much higher than average away values.

              As for the Swans: our home average is close to league average, our away average somewhat less than the league and both have been below the team average the last couple of seasons.

              Make of all that what you will. I don't know that any of it alters outcomes, but West Coast sure is interesting.

              Comment

              • penga
                Senior Player
                • Jan 2003
                • 2601

                #22
                Thanks for that, neilfws!! A lot of effort went into that, it would seem.

                Can I propose we have a separate thread each week regarding umpires, please? Keep the topic away from the match thread? Happy to start one each week myself. I, personally, would rather not read about umpires every week.
                C'mon Chels!

                Comment

                • Markwebbos
                  Veterans List
                  • Jul 2016
                  • 7186

                  #23
                  Originally posted by penga
                  Thanks for that, neilfws!! A lot of effort went into that, it would seem.

                  Can I propose we have a separate thread each week regarding umpires, please? Keep the topic away from the match thread? Happy to start one each week myself. I, personally, would rather not read about umpires every week.
                  Seconded

                  Comment

                  • bloodspirit
                    Clubman
                    • Apr 2015
                    • 4448

                    #24
                    Great post, neilfws! Thanks for the effort.

                    One thing that strikes me is that "interstate" teams (i.e. non VFL) seem to have a bigger gap between their home and away free kick averages than the Melbourne teams overall. The WA teams and Port in particular do, us to a fair extent too, but GWS, Adelaide and Qld teams not so much. To me this lends credence to the 'sound of acclamation' or crowd noise theory - particularly when you factor in that the expansion teams and Brisbane don't get such great home support. Doesn't account for Adelaide though. Collingwood seem to have the smallest difference between home and away averages and perhaps this is due to the vocal and strong support they get from their dedicated fans even when they're away from home.
                    All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated, and well supported in logic and argument than others. -Douglas Adams, author (11 Mar 1952-2001)

                    Comment

                    • neilfws
                      Senior Player
                      • Aug 2009
                      • 1835

                      #25
                      Originally posted by bloodspirit
                      One thing that strikes me is that "interstate" teams (i.e. non VFL) seem to have a bigger gap between their home and away free kick averages than the Melbourne teams overall. The WA teams and Port in particular do, us to a fair extent too, but GWS, Adelaide and Qld teams not so much. To me this lends credence to the 'sound of acclamation' or crowd noise theory - particularly when you factor in that the expansion teams and Brisbane don't get such great home support. Doesn't account for Adelaide though. Collingwood seem to have the smallest difference between home and away averages and perhaps this is due to the vocal and strong support they get from their dedicated fans even when they're away from home.
                      Yes, Adelaide is interesting. One issue is the definition of home and away; a Melbourne-based team can be away in Melbourne, so very little travel and probably still plenty of "home" fans.

                      We could look at venue, or city, but obviously that increases the number of comparisons and makes things more complicated. Perhaps it would be interesting to redefine home and away, based on whether a team is in their home city or not. But there are always going to be "edge cases", like GWS "home" games in Canberra, or North Melbourne "home" games in Tasmania.

                      Comment

                      • dejavoodoo44
                        Veterans List
                        • Apr 2015
                        • 8727

                        #26
                        In regards to Collingwood not having much difference between their home and away tallies, this could be due to the fact that they play a significant amount of their away games at the MCG and Etihad?

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                        • stevoswan
                          Veterans List
                          • Sep 2014
                          • 8573

                          #27
                          Originally posted by dejavoodoo44
                          In regards to Collingwood not having much difference between their home and away tallies, this could be due to the fact that they play a significant amount of their away games at the MCG and Etihad?
                          Yes, most of the time Collingwood are 'away', they are actually 'home'...... "closer each day......Home and Away!" It sucks.....and makes Eddie the biggest hypocrite every time he opens his mouth to complain about 'injustice' and 'inequity'.

                          Comment

                          • crackedactor
                            Regular in the Side
                            • May 2012
                            • 919

                            #28
                            Originally posted by ugg
                            Given that GWS have been in existence for less than half the time period shown in the graphic, double their tally and it?s clear there?s an anti-Sydney conspiracy.
                            I think the most disturbing fact is that the Swans have the last placed wrapped up a long way...some 168 free kicks ahead of hawthorn


                            Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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                            • Nico
                              Veterans List
                              • Jan 2003
                              • 11343

                              #29
                              Originally posted by stevoswan
                              From this article:Umpires' favourites ... and the unloved - AFL.com.au

                              .....comes this: "IT'S OFFICIAL: Joel Selwood is the umpires' pet and Lance Franklin gets a rough run."

                              No @@@@ Sherlock????!!!!
                              Interesting; most on the highest differentials for are knee droppers/duckers.
                              http://www.nostalgiamusic.co.uk/secu...res/srh806.jpg

                              Comment

                              • longmile
                                Crumber
                                • Apr 2011
                                • 3372

                                #30
                                Ugh the Bulldogs getting thrashed at the moment. That with the free kick differential from 2016 makes me so mad. They were never a top 4 team. I still claim 2016 as our year.

                                Makes me so bitter

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